ActiveInvestorMag.com: Fed & Monetary Policy

Japan’s core inflation tops the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time this year

Fri, 23 Oct 2026 14:17:00 GMT

The September reading keeps a December rate rise in play, although the central bank is expected to hold at next week’s meeting.

Japan’s core consumer inflation rose above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in September, for the first time since December 2025. It was the first time this year that Japanese inflation broke 2%. The reading matched forecasts.

Data released on Friday showed Japan’s annual core consumer inflation exceeded the central bank’s 2% target. The Bank of Japan is highly likely to conclude at its next policy meeting that underlying inflation has reached 2%.

The government struck a more cautious note. A Japanese minister urged caution on declaring an end to deflation as the Bank of Japan prepares to assess whether it has achieved its 2 percent target. That is the minister’s view; the central bank’s own judgment is due at the meeting.

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Canadian producer prices jump 2% in September, and KPMG now expects an October rate rise

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 21:17:00 GMT

Statistics Canada’s industrial price index rose 14.5% from a year earlier as markets put the chance of a quarter-point Bank of Canada hike next week at about 75%.

Statistics Canada’s industrial product price index increased 2% in September from the month before. It jumped 14.5% compared with a year earlier, the 24th consecutive annual increase.

KPMG Canada said it now expects the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates next week, reversing its earlier forecast of a December 2026 hike. Economists at CIBC World Markets said rising input costs may portend a rate hike and expect the central bank to raise rates at its upcoming rate-setting meeting.

Investors see a roughly 75% chance that the Bank of Canada will raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. Financial markets are betting on a rate hike at the bank’s 28 October meeting.

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SNB minutes show the franc-sale threat was judged no longer needed as haven flows ebbed

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 21:17:00 GMT

Minutes of the September assessment show the Swiss National Bank saw no need to raise its readiness to intervene, and expects energy prices to drive global inflation.

The Swiss National Bank judged last month that its threat of franc sales was no longer needed after war-induced haven flows into the currency had ebbed. The minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting were released on Thursday. They summarise the Governing Board’s discussion at its September assessment.

At the monetary policy assessment of 22 and 23 September 2026, the Governing Board decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged. At the time of that decision, the board saw no need to increase its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market. Heightened readiness to intervene was no longer considered necessary. The board’s assessment covered both its rate and its currency stance.

The minutes revealed a moderately positive economic assessment. The SNB’s growth forecast is 1.5 to 2.0%, and growth of approximately 1.5% remains expected for 2027. The SNB said global inflation will likely be largely determined by energy prices.

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Bank of Japan set to hold at 1.25% next week as Japan’s biggest union seeks 6% pay rises

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 14:18:00 GMT

The BOJ is expected to keep rates steady at its 29 to 30 October meeting, while strong loan demand and an ambitious wage target keep further hikes in view.

The Bank of Japan will hold its key interest rate steady at 1.25% at its policy meeting on 29 to 30 October, according to a report. The central bank raised rates in June and again in September 2026, taking the policy rate to a 31-year high of 1.25%. Most BOJ watchers expect the next rate rise in December.

Japan’s biggest labour group set a midpoint target of 6% for its 2027 wage increase talks. The target includes a 4% base pay increase. The group framed the figure as a message about how high pay rises should go, with the BOJ’s rate path in the background.

Separately, strength in Japanese loan demand is expected to leave scope for more BOJ hikes. The data, released ahead of next week’s meeting, reinforces the dominant market view that the central bank will continue to raise rates.

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France’s 10-year borrowing cost tops 5% again and overtakes US yields

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 14:18:00 GMT

French yields stayed above 5% for a second day, with one gauge of French bond risk at a 15-year high, as policymakers signal no quick rescue from the European Central Bank.

France’s 10-year borrowing cost topped 5% again in early Paris trading on Thursday, a day after touching that level for the first time since 2002. French borrowing costs have overtaken those of the United States amid budget turmoil. A gauge of French bond risk hit a 15-year high.

The move came as France recovers from its worst urban riots in years and braces for more clashes. Yields on eurozone government bonds rose while Treasury yields fell, widening the French spread. The French debt risk premium has reached the levels of the euro zone sovereign crisis. France’s borrowing costs are at a 24-year high as the riots deepen budget worries.

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A Brookings paper proposes cutting the Fed’s balance sheet to $4.5 trillion with an elastic reserves system

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 21:18:00 GMT

The plan arrives as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh seeks a smaller balance sheet, and it has already drawn objections from officials who defend the current framework.

The Federal Reserve could substantially shrink its balance sheet if it overhauled its toolkit for controlling interest rates to provide liquidity on demand, according to a paper published by the Brookings Institution.

The paper, by Chris Hughes, proposes replacing the Fed’s ample reserves system with what he calls “Elastic Reserves”, cutting the balance sheet from $6.8 trillion to $4.5 trillion. That is a reduction of about $2.3 trillion.

The new system would be more responsive to market demand for cash, Hughes wrote. The plan combines a redesign of how the Fed supplies liquidity with changes to bank regulatory rules.

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ECB economists say AI investment and a greener economy helped the euro zone weather the energy shock

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 21:18:00 GMT

The central bank’s staff credited fiscal support and an AI boom with sustaining growth, while a Governing Council member said rates may have to rise further.

European Central Bank economists said on Wednesday that fiscal support and an investment boom in artificial intelligence are helping to sustain growth in the euro zone.

In their account, a greener economy and AI spending have helped the bloc weather the energy shock. The analysis was published on the ECB’s blog under the title “Resilience of the euro area economy – weathering one shock, preparing for the next”.

The same day, Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said more tightening may be needed, and that interest rates may have to be lifted further depending on how consumer-price gains develop.

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The RBA says Australia’s inflation outlook is materially worse, reviving bets on a November rise

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 14:16:00 GMT

A warning from Deputy Governor Hauser lifted the Australian dollar and reopened a rate decision that bond traders had begun to discount.

The Reserve Bank of Australia said the country’s inflation outlook has become materially worse. Deputy Governor Hauser gave the warning ahead of the central bank’s November meeting.

His comments raised the prospect of another interest rate rise as soon as November. He described the November rate decision as open.

Bond traders had earlier cooled on the prospect of a further rise in interest rates at the policy meeting next month. The warning challenged that view.

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UK inflation jumps to 3.5% in September on fuel costs, firming bets on a November rate rise

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 14:16:00 GMT

Consumer prices rose faster than expected, to an 11-month high, a week before a Budget in which the chancellor has already ruled out a higher capital gains tax.

Annual consumer price inflation in the UK rose to 3.5% in September, the highest rate in nearly a year. It was 3.1% in the year to August, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The rise was larger than expected. A surge in petrol and diesel costs drove the increase, which took inflation to an 11-month high. Fuel prices driven up by the war were the main push.

The Bank of England’s target is 2%. September’s reading leaves inflation further above that target as policymakers prepare for their next meeting.

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Economists see the Fed skipping October and raising rates in December

Tue, 20 Oct 2026 21:17:00 GMT

Ninety-four of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect a pause next week and a rise before year-end, while the chair keeps his own counsel.

An overwhelming majority of economists, 94 of 100, expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged at its October meeting and to raise them again in December, according to a Reuters poll. The survey’s headline finding is that nearly all respondents see the central bank skipping this month before tightening again.

Fed officials have recently suggested they prefer a slower, more deliberate path for rates. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who has made clear he is not keen on giving guidance, has kept mum. New York Fed President John Williams has indicated that further tightening may be necessary but sees little urgency to act immediately. He still considers one more rate hike potentially appropriate in 2026, but he has said he currently sees no pressing need to act.

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A Bank of Canada survey shows inflation expectations rising, and BMO now leans toward a rate rise next week

Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:18:00 GMT

Businesses blamed energy prices and new tariffs for higher expected inflation, though some economists say softer consumer prices argue for a hold.

A Bank of Canada survey recorded a notable rise in inflation expectations, The Wall Street Journal reported. The rise in expectations is tied to elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict and to the imposition of new tariffs, according to Morningstar. A second Morningstar update tied it to elevated fuel costs and new tariffs on US and Canadian goods.

The surveys also pointed to strain from trade. Trade tensions are weighing on exports and investment, Yahoo Finance reported, while cost pressures remain widespread and businesses are absorbing part of the additional tariff burden themselves.

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% in September. Since then, Canada’s mortgage market has reported upward pressure on fixed rates.

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UK unemployment falls to 4.7% and pay growth beats forecasts, firming bets on a Bank of England rise

Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:18:00 GMT

Wage growth excluding bonuses rose to 3.7% in the three months to August, and sterling gained as traders priced a rate increase next month.

UK unemployment fell unexpectedly to 4.7%, The Guardian reported. Wage growth rose a little in the three months through August as unemployment fell, according to The Wall Street Journal. Annual weekly earnings growth excluding bonuses rose to 3.7%, from an upwardly revised 3.6%, the Journal reported, and Traders Union said the figure surpassed forecasts and prompted closer scrutiny from the Bank of England over inflation risks.

The Financial Times reported that the number of people in payroll employment edged up and described the labour market as stabilising before the Budget. A separate FT report said the market had rebounded with stronger employment. The BBC added a qualification: small firms cut back hiring, citing labour costs as a key factor, according to the Office for National Statistics.

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Fed officials say the AI buildout is adding to inflation, and the rest of the economy may pay for the cure

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 21:20:00 GMT

Policymakers are starting to name data-centre construction as a source of price pressure days before the October rate decision.

The artificial intelligence boom is increasingly acknowledged at the Federal Reserve as a source of inflation, Reuters reported from Cleveland. InvestmentNews reported that Fed officials are flagging the boom as an inflation driver before the October vote. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview with Semafor last week that price pressures tied to data-centre construction are spreading beyond the sector itself.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack recently pointed to tempered stock market gains and slowed activity outside the AI boom as the way higher rates would work if the Fed has to raise them further. Her argument, as summarised in the same coverage, is that slower equity gains and weaker activity in the rest of the economy could be the cost of cooling AI-driven prices. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh also addressed the subject in public remarks.

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The Supreme Court leaves Trump’s firing of a labour board member in place

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 21:20:00 GMT

Monday’s order list let the removal of a National Labor Relations Board member stand while the Court took up home distilling and school admissions and refused the September 11 plea deals.

The Supreme Court will not review Trump’s firing of a labor board member, Reuters coverage of Monday’s order list reported. Bloomberg described the outcome as the Court rebuffing the ousted National Labor Relations Board member, and as a win for the president. The New Republic reported that the Court has enabled Trump in the cases of Slaughter and now Wilcox, but that it has drawn the line with Lisa Cook, a governor on the Federal Reserve Board.

The same order list identified the cases the Court intends to hear and denied those it will not, among them the petition in Khalid Shaikh Mohammad, et al. v. United States. The Court denied a bid by Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the accused mastermind of the September 11 attacks, to reinstate plea agreements that would have spared him and two co-defendants the death penalty, which keeps the death penalty available as the defendants move toward a military trial date in June 2028.

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Canadian inflation rose to 3.1% in September as pump prices jumped

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 14:22:00 GMT

The last price reading before the Bank of Canada’s 28 October decision put inflation back above the top of its target band.

Statistics Canada published the consumer price index for September, and Reuters reported that the annual inflation rate rose to 3.1 per cent. Higher gasoline and diesel prices pushed the index above the Bank of Canada’s upper limit once again after three months below it. The Hub reported that the gasoline surge lifted inflation to 3.1 per cent while grocery and shelter prices cooled.

The print came in a little below expectations. Morningstar reported that economists had expected annual inflation of 3.2 per cent. The Wall Street Journal wrote that inflation ticked higher as prices at the pump jumped again, though underlying price pressures look to be holding steady. Governor Tiff Macklem had said at a conference in Bangkok last week that he was concerned energy prices could keep rising and affect other prices.

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The Bank of Japan’s governor says underlying inflation is close to its 2% goal

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 14:22:00 GMT

Kazuo Ueda pointed to strong global AI demand as an added source of price pressure days before the bank’s policy meeting.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation is “quite close” to the central bank’s 2 per cent target. He linked part of that pressure to demand from abroad, saying strong global AI demand is adding to it. The Business Times reported the same remarks from Tokyo.

Ueda made the comments in Parliament, where he appeared alongside Prime Minister Takaichi, and said underlying inflation is rising very close to the bank’s target. Takaichi, for her part, denied that she is driving a weak yen and high rates. Traders Union reported that the remarks came ahead of the policy meeting on 30 October.

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The euro falls as French unrest widens and traders trim bets on an ECB rise

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 14:22:00 GMT

Nearly 2,400 arrests after Saturday’s protests lifted euro-area yields and pared the odds of a rate increase this month.

Nearly 2,400 people were arrested in France on Saturday after long-simmering protests exploded into some of the country’s most disruptive unrest in years. The currency took the hit first: Morningstar reported that the euro fell as the protests escalated and debt worries persisted, and TorFX reported that the euro slid as the weekend of unrest added to pressure on the French government.

Markets moved the European Central Bank’s next meeting further out of reach. Morningstar reported that France’s troubles have dampened expectations that the ECB could raise rates on 29 October. Trading Economics reported the euro weakening amid French turmoil, with both the ECB and the Federal Reserve now expected to keep rates unchanged later this month.

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Britain’s chancellor sets his first budget for 28 October with the pound under attack

Sun, 18 Oct 2026 21:20:00 GMT

UK inflation lands on Wednesday, traders price a November rate rise as near certain, and a reported bet against sterling has reached seven billion pounds.

Chancellor John Healey will set out his plans for UK taxes on 28 October, the BBC reported. The Times described a struggling economy looming over his first budget, noting that the date would mark exactly two years since inflation was last below the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, and that economists at the central bank have issued warnings of their own.

The inflation reading comes first. UK consumer price data land on Wednesday and are likely to settle the case for the Bank of England’s first rate rise, according to reporting carried by Yahoo Finance and swissinfo. Traders have priced an 81% chance that the Bank raises rates on November 5.

The Mail on Sunday reported that traders have placed a seven billion pound bet against the pound, describing it as a vote of no confidence.

The two dates sit close together. The inflation print arrives days before the rate decision the market is pricing, and the budget follows within the same fortnight.

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Two regional Fed presidents keep this month’s rate rise alive

Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:23:00 GMT

Austan Goolsbee called September’s inflation reading discouraging and Beth Hammack said rates may have to go higher, against a market that has nearly written the move off.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee described September’s inflation reading as discouraging in an interview with Yahoo Finance, and a separate report paired that word with remarks from Cleveland’s Beth Hammack. Hammack cautioned that the Fed may need to raise rates more aggressively if the public’s inflation expectations deteriorate. Speaking to Reuters about a shift in the central bank’s approach, she said: “I think it’s a pretty hard argument to make”.

MarketWatch, setting out the arguments against a rise and the economists who dispute them, concluded that this month’s decision is a closer call than markets think. The same report noted that Chair Kevin Warsh held his last news conference a month ago, after the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years. One account framed the week as vocal pushback against Warsh’s attempt to run a quieter central bank.

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Bailey plays down second-round inflation in Britain as traders price a November rate rise as near certain

Sat, 17 Oct 2026 21:20:00 GMT

The Bank of England governor said signs of second-round inflation were limited, days before the release markets expect to settle the decision.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said signs of second-round inflation were limited ahead of next week’s inflation data. He has also said that businesses are resisting decisions to pass higher energy costs on to consumers and are instead looking at other options. Bloomberg reported that Bank officials are divided over the inflation risk facing the United Kingdom, and that the coming inflation print can seal the case for a November rate rise.

Markets are not waiting. The market has already priced a 95% chance that the Bank raises rates at its next policy meeting on 5 November. One foreign-exchange summary put the expectation at a quarter-point rise next month, an outlook that pushed sterling above 1.3350 against the dollar.

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Macklem says the Bank of Canada will raise its inflation forecast sharply because oil stays expensive

Sat, 17 Oct 2026 21:20:00 GMT

Canada’s governor said persistently high crude and petroleum prices will push the central bank’s quarterly projection higher this month.

The Bank of Canada expects to raise its quarterly inflation forecast significantly this month because of persistently high crude oil and petroleum prices, Governor Tiff Macklem said. Reuters reported the same from Ottawa, where Macklem set out the expectation ahead of the bank’s forthcoming projection round. Macklem said he expects the central bank to revise the forecast higher at its upcoming rate announcement.

He also said he is seeing more evidence that higher oil prices are supporting economic growth in Canada, which is the unusual part of the picture for a commodity exporter facing the same energy shock as its trading partners. Separately, he warned that persistently high global energy prices will drive up the outlook for inflation at home, and said the global economy has held up well but that its resilience is being tested.

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The IMF ends its Bangkok meetings with a resilience verdict and a walkout over Russia’s finance minister

Sat, 17 Oct 2026 21:20:00 GMT

Kristalina Georgieva said the annual meetings were marked by optimism and worry, while delegates left the room as Moscow’s minister spoke.

The chair of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, the Fund’s steering body, said the global economy is resilient, and many delegates walked out of the committee’s meeting on Saturday when Russia’s finance minister began speaking. The Bank of England confirmed that Governor Andrew Bailey took part in the walkout. Joachim Nagel, president of the German Bundesbank, said nearly half of all delegates joined it. The European Central Bank’s president, Christine Lagarde, who may be in the frame to take over as chair of the World Economic Forum, stayed in the room.

Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said this year’s meetings with global policymakers were marked by “optimism and worry”. She repeated that formulation as the Bangkok meetings wrapped up.

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Lagarde says Europe’s bond selloff will slow inflation while Nagel keeps another rise open

Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:21:00 GMT

The ECB president told the IMF meetings that higher market borrowing costs are curbing growth and will ultimately curb prices, while the Bundesbank chief would not rule out another hike.

A selloff in bonds is making borrowing more expensive in the euro zone, curbing economic growth and ultimately inflation, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said. CNBC reported the remarks from the IMF and World Bank annual meetings. Bastille Post reported her saying the central bank is closely analysing the situation and will take appropriate action if inflation worsens.

She also pressed governments. Lagarde stressed the importance of sound public finances when she addressed the ministers in charge of them, Bloomberg reported, and urged governments to maintain sustainable public finances while warning that inflation risks are rising. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel struck a harder note. The European Central Bank might have to raise borrowing costs again, he said, adding that he could not exclude it.

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The IMF tells the Bank of Japan to be ready to raise rates faster than it plans

Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:21:00 GMT

The Fund says the Bank of Japan is doing the right thing and sees one more hike toward neutral, but wants it ready to move faster if inflation overshoots.

The Bank of Japan is “doing the right thing” by normalising monetary policy and may need to raise interest rates faster if inflation rises more than expected, the International Monetary Fund said, in remarks Reuters reported from Bangkok. Bloomberg reported that the Fund expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates one more time toward the neutral rate, while stressing the need for flexibility.

An IMF official framed it as approval rather than pressure. “Given such high uncertainties, we think that the BOJ is very appropriately conducting” policy, the Fund’s Anand said, in comments the Japan Times carried alongside the Fund’s welcome for Japan’s temporary tax cut plan. Reuters also reported that the global inflation debate has put the pace of Bank of Japan rate rises back in the spotlight ahead of a key meeting. Governor Kazuo Ueda attended the Fund’s monetary and financial committee as the alternate for Japan’s finance minister, and has said he cannot tolerate inflation rising further above target while signalling continued rate rises.

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Warsh calls AI the most consequential change to the economy and sets a Fed hearing on productivity and jobs

Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:21:00 GMT

The Fed chairman told the IMF meetings that the artificial intelligence investment surge is a shock central bankers have to recognise, and announced a task force hearing on productivity and jobs.

Kevin Warsh used his appearance at the IMF’s annual gathering to put artificial intelligence at the centre of the Federal Reserve’s problem. He warned that the surge in AI investment could “shock” the US economy by boosting demand, CoStar reported. “If you’re a central banker, you’ve got to recognise this as a shock,” he said. Fox News reported him calling AI likely the “most consequential change” to the economy “in my lifetime”.

He paired the warning with a pledge. The New York Times reported his remarks as a vow to tame inflation even as AI delivers a shock to the economy. Warsh said AI would ultimately generate wealth but that the path may be “very bumpy”. China Daily reported his view that while AI will improve productivity and benefit the economy, its near-term impact on employment is uncertain. Bloomberg reported that he announced a hearing of the Fed’s productivity and jobs task force, and Crypto Briefing put a Federal Reserve hearing on AI in San Francisco on November 16. The Wall Street Journal’s account of the appearance was that the Fed chief sidestepped talk of interest rates and highlighted AI’s benefits for the global economy.

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Central bankers in Bangkok lean against market bets that rate rises are finished

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 21:25:00 GMT

At the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, policymakers pushed back on market pricing for easier policy and tied the pressure on rates to the cash demands of the AI build-out.

Central bankers meeting in Bangkok pushed back on market bets that rate tightening is over, the Financial Times reported, with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaking at the IMF gathering on Friday. Reuters reported that central bankers are eyeing higher rates as the AI boom fuels a scramble for cash, and noted that the Bank of Japan has already cited AI-related demand as a factor behind its recent rate increases, arguing that investment-driven price pressure is part of the picture.

Anadolu Agency reported that the energy shock is pushing major central banks toward higher rates as growth risks mount, with the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan tightening while UK policymakers weigh further increases against higher inflation forecasts. Bloomberg’s summary of the gathering was published as key takeaways from the meetings.

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Ueda says the Bank of Japan cannot tolerate inflation rising further above its target

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 21:25:00 GMT

Japan’s central bank governor struck a hawkish tone in Bangkok, and brokerages now expect the next increase in December with more tightening to follow.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that he cannot tolerate underlying inflation rising further above 2%, Bloomberg reported, remarks it said reinforced expectations for further tightening. The Business Times carried the same quotation, with Ueda saying he cannot tolerate underlying inflation rising further above 2 per cent. The Wall Street Journal reported him saying the bank must ensure underlying inflation does not go above 2%, speaking at a news conference in Bangkok.

Reuters reported Ueda saying the central bank will focus on anchoring underlying inflation around its 2% target and vowing to keep raising rates. Channel NewsAsia reported him reiterating the risks of underlying inflation overshooting the 2 per cent anchor. Nikkei Asia reported him saying underlying inflation is already quite close to the target. Morningstar described the tone at the news conference as continuing to be hawkish.

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Japan’s core inflation is expected to clear the Bank of Japan’s target for the first time since December

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 14:32:00 GMT

Economists polled before Friday’s release expected core prices to pass the central bank’s 2% goal, as Governor Kazuo Ueda said the timing of the next move would turn on the Middle East, AI demand and the exchange rate.

Japan’s core inflation likely exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time since December, Reuters reported. The same account, carried by US News and by Central Oregon Daily, quoted a forecast noting that amid the emerging deterioration of the situation in Iran, growth is expected to be affected.

Governor Kazuo Ueda said the Bank of Japan must ensure underlying inflation does not go above 2%, the Wall Street Journal reported. He said the Middle East situation, AI demand and foreign-exchange rates would affect the timing of the decision. A board member, Junko Koeda, warned against too much caution over raising interest rates, in comments the Japan Times said suggest the central bank is leaning towards a move; her remarks came in a speech to business leaders in Kumamoto, in southern Japan.

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Warsh gives no hint of the Fed’s October intentions, and investors trim their hike bets

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 14:32:00 GMT

The Fed chair told the IMF meeting in Bangkok that the world had broadly conformed to the central bank’s expectations, declined to steer expectations for this month’s decision, and moved markets with his remarks on artificial intelligence instead.

Kevin Warsh said on Friday that the economy had largely performed as expected since September’s rate rise, hinting that little had changed in the central bank’s outlook, Axios reported. “Over the month or so that’s transpired since then, the world has broadly conformed to our expectations,” he said at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, referring to the Fed’s September meeting. Interviewed by the IMF’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, he offered no explicit signal about October: “I don’t prejudge meetings”.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Warsh declined to endorse or push back on colleagues’ signals that officials are in no rush to raise rates this month, saying the central bank was no longer in that business. “We’re not in that business anymore,” he said after firm inflation data raised questions about the timing of the next increase. Reuters reported that he pointed to US resilience while staying mum on the rate path, and the Journal reported separately that investors trimmed their bets on an October rise after the comments. The Financial Times reported that bets on a hold in October strengthened. Earlier this week two Fed officials had already played down an October move.

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Reports put Christine Lagarde at the World Economic Forum and start the race for her ECB seat

Thu, 15 Oct 2026 21:25:00 GMT

The forum could appoint the central bank president as early as November, which would mean an early departure from Frankfurt.

The World Economic Forum could appoint Christine Lagarde as early as November, sources told Reuters. The organisation told Reuters that such an appointment would mean she steps down early as European Central Bank chief and triggers a wider reshuffle at the top of the ECB, according to an account of the report. A further summary of the same reporting said it would mean Lagarde leaving the ECB presidency ahead of schedule.

The forum, based in Geneva, has a board currently co-chaired by BlackRock’s chief executive Larry Fink and Roche’s vice chairman Andre Hoffmann. The succession conversation has already begun: Spain’s opposition leader has backed De Cos, who currently heads the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, to succeed Lagarde at the ECB, Bloomberg reported.

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The dollar gives back its gains and gold rebounds after two Fed officials play down an October move

Thu, 15 Oct 2026 21:25:00 GMT

Mary Daly and Michelle Bowman both said no rate rise was urgent, and the currency and bond markets priced the message rather than the inflation data.

The dollar retreated from its 18-month high despite strong inflation data, Reuters reported. CNBC reported the currency pulling back as Treasury yields fell and bets on a Fed rate rise eased, and the dollar index fell on Thursday. Gold rebounded on the weaker dollar and lower yields, with October rate-hike expectations subdued.

The move followed two Fed officials. Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, said rate rises were likely needed but not urgently, in an interview with Reuters. Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, said inflation was above target but there was no urgency to act, and that there was room to assess economic developments before taking further policy action. Both were reported as saying the central bank could wait for more evidence.

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Fed officials push back publicly on Warsh’s plan for a quieter central bank

Thu, 15 Oct 2026 14:29:00 GMT

Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack and other officials have questioned the chairman’s drive to reduce the Federal Reserve’s communication, days before he speaks at the IMF meetings with inflation running hot.

Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh’s effort to make the central bank speak less is drawing open resistance from inside the system, Reuters reported. Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack told Reuters in an interview on Monday that the case for a quieter Fed is “a pretty hard argument to make”. Reuters reported that markets took note of the communication changes.

Other officials have continued to speak about the policy path regardless. Speaking in Turkey last week, Fed governor Christopher Waller gave his own assessment of what will be needed, pointing to additional rate hikes, the Charlotte Observer reported. Politico wrote that Warsh has criticised how the central bank communicates and is now finding out firsthand why doing it well is difficult.

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ECB voices point to another rise while France’s budget standoff strains its bond market

Wed, 14 Oct 2026 21:26:00 GMT

Governing Council members signalled that euro-area price pressures may require more tightening, even as the central bank declined to step into France’s fiscal crisis.

The European Central Bank may need to raise interest rates again because the data suggest price pressures keep building, Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said, according to Bloomberg. Bloomberg separately reported that ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank is not seeing second-round inflation effects, a formulation that points away from an entrenched wage-price spiral.

On the process, the Bank of France’s governor said rate-setting decisions at the ECB are being made one meeting at a time. Morningstar carried the same remarks, reporting that policy decisions are taken meeting by meeting. Taken together, the comments describe a council that is open to tightening further but unwilling to pre-commit.

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The dollar reaches an 18-month high and October rate-hike odds climb after the inflation surprise

Wed, 14 Oct 2026 21:26:00 GMT

A hotter-than-expected September inflation reading knocked equities and Treasuries, lifted the dollar and put another Federal Reserve increase back in play this month.

Consumer prices rose from 3.4% to 3.7% year over year in September, above the 3.6% economists had expected, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Wednesday. Interactive Brokers said the hotter-than-anticipated reading sparked Wall Street turbulence, hitting equities and Treasuries and driving the dollar to an 18-month high. CNBC reported that the US dollar index was up about 0.40% after the release.

Reuters said the print put a Federal Reserve rate increase this month back on the table. The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos wrote that the reading bolsters the case for another increase by the central bank, which is led by Chairman Kevin Warsh. MarketWatch said rate-hike odds are rising going into this month’s meeting.

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Bowman says there is time to wait and see before any further Fed action

Wed, 14 Oct 2026 14:31:00 GMT

The Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision said inflation remains above target but that she feels no urgency to tighten policy further.

Michelle Bowman, the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision, said that although inflation remains above the central bank’s goal, the Fed has time before acting again, Bloomberg reported. The Wall Street Journal reported her as saying inflation is above goal but that there is no urgency to act, and that there is room to assess economic developments before taking further monetary policy action. Speaking at an industry event in Bangkok, she said she does not feel any urgency to tighten policy further, according to a wire summary carried by ForexFactory.

FXStreet described the remarks as signalling a cautious, data-dependent pause after the most recent rate rise, and reported her saying the central bank needs time to assess how financial markets and the US economy respond. The Standard in Hong Kong carried the same wait and see framing.

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Lisa Cook’s lawyer declines the White House hearing ordered for 5 November

Wed, 14 Oct 2026 14:31:00 GMT

A lawyer for the Federal Reserve governor said she is not available for the hearing the president ordered over mortgage fraud allegations.

A lawyer for Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook said she was not available to attend the November 5 White House hearing that President Trump ordered, citing a scheduling conflict, the Wall Street Journal reported. Bloomberg Law reported that Cook says she will be unable to attend the hearing, which concerns fraud claims. Barron’s reported that the governor will be too busy to attend a hearing ordered over mortgage fraud allegations.

Devdiscourse reported that Cook challenged the latest attempt to remove her from the board, with her lawyer questioning the process itself. The Spokesman-Review reported the same decision to put off the hearing over the president’s allegations.

Barron’s reported that the hearing had been ordered by the president over the mortgage fraud allegations, and Bloomberg Law reported the postponement as Cook putting off a White House hearing over fraud claims.

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Pill pushes back on market pricing for four rate rises as sterling hits a 16-month high

Wed, 14 Oct 2026 14:31:00 GMT

The Bank of England’s chief economist, who has voted for higher rates, said he is now more sceptical that four increases are needed.

Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s chief economist, said on Wednesday that he was more sceptical about market pricing for four interest rate rises, Reuters reported. Pill has voted for a quarter-point increase in recent months. The Wall Street Journal reported him as sceptical that four rate rises are needed to tame inflation.

Global Banking and Finance reported that he expressed scepticism about market pricing of four hikes over the next year, citing inflation and policy considerations. US News, carrying the same wire copy, described him as having voted in favour of raising rates before turning more sceptical.

All four accounts rest on the same Reuters report of the remarks, and all four record the same two facts: that Pill has recently voted to raise rates, and that he now doubts the scale of tightening the market expects.

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Bank of Japan officials lean against a back-to-back rate rise in October

Tue, 13 Oct 2026 21:28:00 GMT

Policymakers are reluctant to move twice in a row even as households’ inflation expectations stay high and wholesale prices keep rising.

Bank of Japan officials are leaning against a rare back-to-back interest-rate increase this month, while still eyeing the possibility of another move, Bloomberg reported. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s board lifted borrowing costs to 1.25% last month as it sought to stay on top of upside inflation risks.

The data released on Tuesday pointed in both directions. A Bank of Japan survey showed 88.6% of households expect prices to rise a year from now, down from 90.4% in the previous survey, while a separate reading of the same opinion survey showed 86.5% expect higher prices in five years, with an increasing number of people expecting price rises over that horizon.

Wholesale prices also kept climbing. Bank of Japan data showed wholesale prices rose 6.8% in the year to September, and the September Corporate Goods Price Index showed chemicals wholesale inflation rising and plastic product prices up 12.8% year on year even as the overall producer price index eased.

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Goolsbee calls AI-driven inflation a problem that is jumping out of its lane

Tue, 13 Oct 2026 21:28:00 GMT

The Chicago Fed president recast the AI investment boom as a source of broad overheating rather than a temporary supply shock.

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said AI-induced inflation is “jumping out of its lane”, in remarks first reported by Semafor and relayed by Reuters. Semafor’s account has him warning of “spillover” from AI price spikes into unrelated parts of the economy.

In the same remarks he set out what that would mean for policy. If inflation remains persistent, he said, “then I think it’s clear what the Fed has to do”, while allowing that evidence of tariff inflation going away would change the picture. One summary of his position put it plainly: inflation now looks like AI-driven aggregate overheating rather than a set of temporary supply shocks. Another reported him warning that growing investment in artificial intelligence could push prices up across the economy.

He also spoke about what happens if the boom turns. Goolsbee said financial bubble unwinds “can get ugly” depending on how much leverage is involved, and that he sees AI demand starting to overheat; he recalled the internet infrastructure built in an earlier cycle.

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Williams backs one more rate rise this year, and reports split on what he said about 2027

Tue, 13 Oct 2026 21:28:00 GMT

The New York Fed president’s remarks lifted stocks off their lows and pulled Treasury yields down, but outlets differ on whether he ruled out further increases next year.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said one more interest-rate increase this year is appropriate. Speaking in a Bloomberg News interview, he said he still saw the case for one more rise this year but not for further ones next year.

Accounts of the 2027 part of his message diverge. CNBC reported that Williams sees one more increase this year but no additional move in 2027 as inflation pressures ease, putting him at odds with traders. The Wall Street Journal reported that while one more increase may be appropriate this year, he left open the possibility of further rises in 2027. One report quoted him saying he did not think he had any reason, at this time, to take a firmer view.

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The IMF lifts Britain’s growth forecast and a Bank of England rate setter calls it proof a rise is needed

Tue, 13 Oct 2026 14:32:00 GMT

The fund raised its 2026 forecast for the UK to 1.3% while warning that inflation will rise more sharply than it previously thought.

The International Monetary Fund upgraded its UK growth forecast for this year, the BBC reported, while warning that risks remain. The fund now predicts GDP growth of 1.3% for the UK this year, up 0.3 percentage points on its previous estimate, according to The Guardian. One summary of the World Economic Outlook said the UK’s 2026 forecast was raised to 1.3% while its 2027 outlook was lowered to 1.2%.

The fund paired the upgrade with warnings. The BBC reported that higher energy prices are expected to hit the economy next year, and The Independent reported the fund’s view that UK households face a sharper rise in inflation than previously thought. The Times said the fund warned Chancellor John Healey against higher spending, and an economist quoted by The Guardian said he should “stay the course”.

The fund publishes the World Economic Outlook twice a year, and this edition is the one carrying the UK revision. The Times reported the upgrade alongside its warning to the chancellor on spending.

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Waller says higher long-term yields are doing part of the Fed’s work for it

Tue, 13 Oct 2026 14:32:00 GMT

The Fed governor also called the administration a threat to the central bank’s independence while saying inflation expectations remain anchored.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday that US inflation expectations are well anchored, Reuters reported. He also said that rising long-term US Treasury yields are affecting interest-sensitive sectors of the economy, and that higher yields are “doing a little bit of the work” of tighter monetary policy. Waller spoke in New Delhi on Oct. 13.

In the same set of remarks he said there is a certain threat to the Fed’s independence from the administration, while adding that he has faith in Congress and the courts to protect that independence. No immediate reaction was seen in the US dollar following the remarks. Waller, a member of the Board of Governors, also spoke on monetary policy in the age of artificial intelligence.

The remarks were delivered as officials prepare for September inflation data, with Waller appearing alongside other Fed speakers this week. Reuters framed the anchoring comment as his central message of the day.

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Hammack wants restrictive policy delivered quickly, in smaller and more frequent steps

Mon, 12 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

The Cleveland Fed president said rates need to be higher and that she prefers to get there without large single moves.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack backs restrictive monetary policy and said it would be better if it came “relatively quickly”, Reuters reported on Monday. Bloomberg said she pointed to smaller, more frequent policy adjustments as a way to hold inflation expectations down, and described that approach as preferable. FXStreet said she told markets the same day that interest rates need to be higher and that inflation remains “too high”.

CNBC said Hammack called restrictive policy appropriate for a timely return to the 2 percent target, and that higher rates could be needed to stop an “inflationary mindset” taking hold. The Cleveland Fed said she delivered a new speech setting out her views on the economy and policy, and quoted her saying that “explaining my reaction function is not a prediction for policy”.

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The IMF says AI spending is holding world growth near 3% and warns of a slow-moving tsunami in jobs

Mon, 12 Oct 2026 14:48:00 GMT

Kristalina Georgieva told the fund’s annual meetings in Bangkok that AI investment is keeping global growth at about 3%, and in the same remarks called the technology’s effect on jobs and tax bases a slow-moving tsunami.

Georgieva said AI investment keeps global growth around 3%, with major benefits for Asia. One report put it as AI spending holding global growth near 3%, with Asian hardware makers gaining most, as she warned the technology will do something the excerpt does not finish. A wire summary had her saying the AI impact is already visible and is keeping global GDP growth at about that rate, and adding that it could lift Asian growth by an amount the excerpt truncates.

The warning came with it. CNBC reported that Georgieva said AI is hitting the global labour market like a slow-moving tsunami, with young workers entering the job market affected in a clause the excerpt cuts off, and that the World Bank’s jobs council is urging crisis-era employment support measures. The Times reported her warning that 60 per cent of jobs in advanced economies face disruption and that governments would have to rethink taxation.

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Georgieva opens the Bangkok meetings with a warning that winter is coming

Sun, 11 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

The IMF’s managing director told delegates that winter is coming as the annual meetings began, and the Financial Times reported the Fund and the World Bank will warn central bankers of a gathering storm.

The IMF and World Bank annual meetings began in Bangkok. In her opening remarks ahead of the meetings, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva told attendees “Winter is coming”, in a quotation the excerpt leaves unfinished. The Financial Times reported that the Fund and the Bank will warn central bankers of a gathering storm.

Georgieva’s own framing names three forces. She has warned that high energy prices, rising public debts and the expansion of AI are creating a condition the excerpt does not state, and she identified those three as key risks to the global economic outlook. She told Reuters that 18,000 people were registered to attend, 4,000 more than a comparison the excerpt cuts off, and Thai police said the city was ready for the delegates.

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Traders cut the odds of an October Fed rise as officials split on pace

Sun, 11 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

Prediction-market pricing for the 28 October meeting has collapsed after New York Fed president John Williams counselled patience, while three other officials argue rates are still not high enough.

Kalshi priced an October 28 Fed rise at just 16.5% on October 7, down from near 69% days earlier, after Williams said there was no need for urgency, in a sentence the excerpt does not complete. A separate account said the case for caution had been reinforced by Williams, who said there was no need for urgency around the decision.

Governor Christopher Waller added to the doubt and to the confusion. A New Zealand paper ran him under a headline saying a top Fed official had cast further doubt on a rate rise in October, quoting him: “I am not greatly concerned that tighter monetary policy threatens a damaging slowdown in the economy”. A market commentary reported that Waller said on Thursday he expects an additional increase in interest rates if economic data develop as anticipated, and another described his rate-rise vote as a pivot explained against falling consumer confidence and high energy costs.

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Fed minutes and officials’ remarks keep another rate rise on the table

Sun, 11 Oct 2026 14:33:00 GMT

The minutes show policymakers still see inflation stuck above target, and governors are not speaking with one voice about how fast to go.

The Federal Reserve’s minutes show officials still see inflation stuck above target, and another rate rise this year is being read as likely, Gulf News reported, citing remarks from Philip Jefferson, vice chair of the Fed’s board of governors. Governor Christopher Waller signalled further rate rises ahead in a speech in Istanbul, citing a resilient labour market and the Fed’s target, and said additional increases remain likely while leaving the pace open, according to a Reuters account.

Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack put the case for more tightening in terms of corporate behaviour: businesses’ pricing power and a sturdy economy show that interest rates are not yet high enough to tame inflation. Barron’s noted that the policy committee’s minutes have become shorter under Chairman Kevin Warsh but still carry a usable guide to future moves.

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Three Trump appointees will weigh the case for removing Lisa Cook at a 5 November hearing

Sun, 11 Oct 2026 14:33:00 GMT

The president has named a committee of inquiry to examine mortgage-fraud allegations against the Fed governor, and her lawyers say there is no basis to remove her.

President Trump has created a three-member committee of inquiry to examine allegations that Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook made false statements, with a White House hearing set for 5 November. The panel is made up of his own appointees and is to sit behind closed doors; one account of its membership names the National Economic Council’s Kevin Hassett and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission chair Andrea Lucas. The Wall Street Journal reported that the committee will evaluate the mortgage-fraud allegations and that the move signals a renewed effort to fire the Biden-appointed governor as part of the president’s desire to wield more control over the central bank.

Cook’s lawyers say there is no basis to remove her. She has denied any wrongdoing and has not been charged with a crime. The Economist recorded the step plainly: the president is coming for Cook again, and has formed a committee to do it.

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Trump orders a White House inquiry into Fed governor Lisa Cook

Fri, 09 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

A three-person committee will examine mortgage-fraud allegations against the Fed governor, who has been ordered to a hearing on 5 November.

President Donald Trump announced on Friday the creation of a three-person committee to investigate allegations of mortgage fraud against Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook. The instrument is a presidential memorandum titled “Establishment of a Committee of Inquiry to Investigate Allegations of False Statements by Lisa DeNell Cook”, addressed to the Attorney General, the Counsel to the President, the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, the Director of the Office of Government Ethics and the Chairman of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. The allegations are the White House’s own characterisation and have not been established in any proceeding.

Trump has ordered Cook, an economist at Michigan State University, to appear at a hearing on 5 November. The move follows a first attempt to remove her that was thwarted by the Supreme Court, and comes after a ruling by that court on the question.

Cook’s lawyers said the hearing would show there is no mortgage fraud case to answer. Her counsel issued a statement after reports of the White House inquiry, alongside statements from Cook herself and from Democracy Defenders Fund and Lowell & Associates PLLC.

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Bank of England’s Bailey tells governments to rebuild confidence in public finances

Thu, 08 Oct 2026 21:30:00 GMT

The governor said credible budget policy is needed more than ever as bond markets come under pressure, and UK medium-term borrowing costs reached a 19-year high.

Governments need to redouble efforts to restore confidence in their public finances, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Thursday, as global bond markets came under pressure. Bailey said governments needed to double down on showing they can repair their public finances. He argued that sticking to clear frameworks such as fiscal rules can guard against shocks, with the UK budget just weeks away.

Bailey set out the mechanism as well as the warning. Low economic growth and a quick succession of supply shocks erode public finances, he said, citing Russia’s war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East as examples of large shocks. The Telegraph reported the remarks as a warning that further damage to Britain’s credibility from rising spending could trigger a crisis, invoking the Truss episode ahead of the Budget. Bloomberg framed the intervention as a call for fiscal credibility with debt pressures mounting before the UK budget and neighbouring France under strain of its own.

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