ActiveInvestorMag.com: GDP & Macro Reality

UK consumer confidence suffers its biggest fall since the pandemic as fuel costs bite

Fri, 23 Oct 2026 14:17:00 GMT

Several surveys show sentiment collapsing ahead of Healey’s Budget, adding to the case for a Bank of England rate rise on 5 November.

UK consumer sentiment plunged in October as soaring fuel prices brought home the scale of the cost-of-living hit from the Middle East conflict, according to GfK. The slump was as big as the Brexit shock. Confidence fell at the fastest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic, reversing the bounce in optimism seen over the summer.

The index has been closely tracked by the government and the Bank of England for early warning signs from the economy. Surveys this month from S&P Global and LSEG/Ipsos have also shown weaker consumer sentiment, undoing a recovery that had taken hold earlier.

The British Retail Consortium’s consumer sentiment monitor showed that views of the economy deteriorated for a third consecutive month. Separately, UK retail sales fell 0.4% in September as consumer confidence hit a six-month low.

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Euro zone consumer confidence falls to -17.9 as the energy shock lingers

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 21:17:00 GMT

The European Commission’s flash reading fell further than economists expected in October, taking household sentiment in the currency area to a five-month low.

The European Commission’s flash consumer-confidence indicator for the 21-nation currency area fell 1.1 points to minus 17.9 in October. Economists had expected a reading of minus 17.0. Sentiment among euro zone households has now fallen for two consecutive months.

In the European Union as a whole, consumer sentiment fell by 1.2 points to minus 17.3. The drop in the wider bloc was slightly larger than the 1.1-point fall in the euro area, although the EU reading remains less negative.

Euro area consumer sentiment eroded at a faster-than-expected pace in October and reached its lowest level in five months. The October figure is a flash estimate published by the European Commission.

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Global stocks slide as Tesla’s spending cut and Meta dent AI optimism, and Hong Kong suffers its worst day in seven months

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 14:18:00 GMT

A day after SpaceX lifted the AI trade, Tesla’s capex cut and lower sales target, Meta’s results and Gulf tensions sent equities lower from Hong Kong to New York futures.

Global stocks fell and bonds gained as Meta dented optimism about technology. Markets sold off worldwide as further conflict loomed in the Middle East and Elon Musk cut spending at Tesla. US stock futures retreated on concerns about AI, as the rally driven by tech earnings faded.

Tesla cut spending ahead of a potential deal with SpaceX, even as Musk bets the carmaker’s future on AI and robots. Musk set a lower sales target for Tesla, and the company’s profit dropped. Musk is exploring a combination of Tesla with SpaceX, a far more capital-intensive business.

One analyst asked how much the Tesla capex cut is weighing on the market. Many AI bulls had long said the first hyperscaler spending cut would mark the end of the AI trade, the analyst said.

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A New Jersey food importer sues over Trump’s 50% tariffs on Canadian goods under a 1930 law

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 14:16:00 GMT

The lawsuit argues the White House exceeded its authority by using a provision of the Smoot-Hawley Act that no president had used in 96 years.

A New Jersey food importer filed a lawsuit on Tuesday challenging President Donald Trump’s power to invoke a Depression-era law to levy a 50% tariff on Canadian goods. The company is New Jersey-based Gellert Global Group, which objects to the use of the law to levy a 50% tariff on a range of Canadian goods.

The lawsuit argues that the White House exceeded its authority in imposing the latest tariffs on Canada and caused “immediate harm to American businesses”. It is the latest legal challenge to the president’s tariffs.

The case concerns Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which Trump invoked over the summer to impose 50% tariffs. The suit has been described as a challenge to $40 million in cheese duties under that law.

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US housing starts fall 5.2% in September as pending home sales sink to a record low

Tue, 20 Oct 2026 21:17:00 GMT

Builders broke ground on 1.221 million homes at an annual pace, short of forecasts, and contract signings for existing homes fell 7.3%.

US housing starts fell 5.2% in September to an annual rate of 1.221 million, and the second report in a row to show a drop. Economists had expected a reading of 1.3 million and a 2% rise over the month. The figures come from the Census Bureau’s monthly report on new residential construction for September 2026.

Contract activity for existing homes plunged 7.3% in September, the National Association of Realtors said. Pending home sales decreased by that amount in the month, and the drop took the measure to a record low.

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The US ran a deficit of about $2 trillion in fiscal 2026 as federal debt passed $40 trillion

Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:18:00 GMT

The Treasury reported a shortfall 12% larger than the year before, and interest costs are taking a growing share of the economy as yields rise.

The Treasury reported on Friday a budget deficit of roughly $2 trillion for the fiscal year ended 30 September, 12% larger than the previous year’s. The final shortfall came in at $1.99 trillion against $1.78 trillion a year earlier, making it the third-largest federal deficit in history. The Philippine Star described it as the highest level since the pandemic.

Comparisons vary with the baseline. Schiff Sovereign put the deficit $220 billion worse than the year before, while the American Action Forum measured it against the official forecast: $140 billion, or 8 percent, higher than the $1.9 trillion the Congressional Budget Office had projected. In February 2026 the CBO had projected a deficit of approximately $1.9 trillion.

Federal spending climbed to $7.40 trillion from $7.01 trillion, according to TokenPost, while corporate tax receipts fell 16% to $381.4 billion. The Philippine Star reported that military spending was among the drivers.

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China’s economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter as exports carried a weak home market

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 14:22:00 GMT

Growth beat forecasts on export strength while property investment and household spending kept falling.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics said gross domestic product expanded 4.5 per cent in the third quarter, up from 4.3 per cent in the second. Reuters reported the same acceleration to 4.5 per cent. The figure beat the 4.4 per cent growth expected in a forecast poll, and was above a 4.41 per cent consensus of economists.

Exports did the work. The BBC said exports helped offset weak spending at home, while trade tensions and doubts about AI cloud the outlook. An economist quoted by the Guardian said the pickup “mainly reflects ongoing export strength on the global AI/tech boom, more than offsetting drags from the Iran conflict”. Channel NewsAsia described the quarter as an uneven recovery powered by exports, and Al Jazeera said growth beat forecasts.

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Policy changes are set to cost middle-income households about $1,700 this year, a report finds

Sun, 18 Oct 2026 21:20:00 GMT

The same analysis puts the gain for the richest 1% at $12,560, and consumer sentiment is now weaker than it was after the 2008 crisis.

A report summarised by the Hindustan Times finds that President Donald Trump’s policies will cost middle-income Americans $1,700 more in 2026, while the richest 1% save $12,560. The measures counted include new tax provisions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the end of the COVID-era tax credits for Affordable Care Act health insurance.

USA Today reported the same analysis, saying the policies raised costs for all but the top 1% and summarising the finding that they cost every American household $355,000 over 10 years. The two accounts describe different measures of the same package, one annual and one cumulative, so they are not directly comparable.

These are the conclusions of a single report rather than official statistics, and neither account quotes the administration disputing them.

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Economists polled by the FT see an AI growth surge; the IMF says few will feel it

Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:23:00 GMT

A survey of economists points to productivity gains from artificial intelligence, while the Fund warns the benefits are concentrated and the labour effects are already visible.

The global economy is set for an AI-driven surge, according to a Financial Times survey of economists, whose respondents expect productivity gains from the technology. The International Monetary Fund put a condition on the same story: the AI boom is cushioning the global economy but widening the growth divide, and energy-importing economies with limited exposure to the technology’s value chain are the ones left out unless the gains spread beyond a small group.

The Fund has also measured a cost. An IMF report found that AI has cut job demand in exposed occupations by nearly ten per cent across Asia, while employers increasingly look for workers who can integrate the technology into business processes and turn it into productivity.

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Musk tells his biographer that only AI and robots can close the deficit

Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:23:00 GMT

The former head of the government’s cost-cutting effort says savings alone cannot fix the national debt, and calls his own experiment a failure.

Elon Musk told his biographer Walter Isaacson that the cost-cutting effort he once led proved there was “no way we were gonna solve the deficit from within the government,” Axios reported from a new podcast interview. “The only way we’re going to solve the national debt is with AI and robots,” Musk said. “We’re not gonna solve it by trying to save our way there”.

The remarks were made for “The Builders with Walter Isaacson,” a podcast series premiering on Tuesday. Isaacson wrote the 2023 biography of Musk. Axios said the comments amount to an admission that the Department of Government Efficiency was a flop, while pointing to the possibility that a future administration attempts the problem again with different tools.

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Anthropic tells policymakers AI could take US output to $44 trillion by 2030, while measured returns stay thin

Sat, 17 Oct 2026 21:20:00 GMT

Jack Clark put the company’s own growth scenario to the IMF, as separate research found most firms using AI report no change in revenue.

Anthropic’s Jack Clark told policymakers that artificial intelligence’s impact is accelerating quickly and could vastly boost US gross domestic product. Clark made the case to officials gathered for the International Monetary Fund’s meetings, where he cited a scenario in which US output reaches about $44 trillion by 2030. Reuters reported his argument that if GDP were to grow that much, standard economic doctrine would imply large consequences for policy.

The projection is the company’s own. It comes from Anthropic’s internal economic model, released in September 2026 as an economic scenarios explorer. The explorer finds that AI drives GDP growth in all its scenarios, but that a larger share of the resulting prosperity might go to capital rather than to workers.

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The national debt crosses $40 trillion and interest payments set a record

Sat, 17 Oct 2026 21:20:00 GMT

Interest on the federal debt reached about $1.36 trillion in the fiscal year just ended, and net interest topped $1 trillion for the first time.

The US national debt has passed $40 trillion, and interest on it is now consuming a growing share of the federal budget. WION put the stock of debt at around $40.3 trillion. Gross interest payments on the national public debt exceeded $1.3 trillion for the fiscal year, against record receipts and record outlays. One tally put the interest figure at a record $1.36 trillion, with net interest rising. Net interest payments on public debt topped $1 trillion for the first time.

Fortune calculated that interest payments now run at about $3 billion a day and rose 8% in the fiscal year. The deficit for the year, reported earlier this week, was the widest in five years.

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Consumer sentiment falls to a fifteen-year low while chief executives turn negative

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 21:25:00 GMT

The LSEG/Ipsos sentiment index dropped to 45.2 in October and the Conference Board’s CEO gauge fell to 46, below the level that marks pessimism.

The LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index for October 2026 stood at 45.2, its lowest reading in fifteen years. Separately, CEO confidence in the US economy sank into negative territory earlier this month, according to a survey published on Thursday by the Conference Board and the Business Council. That gauge, the CEO Confidence Index, fell to 46 from 52 three months earlier, and any reading below 50 denotes negative sentiment. The survey covered 131 Fortune 500 chief executives.

Axios reported that business leaders are converging with most consumers, whose views on the economy are now lower than during the pandemic. A separate account put US consumer sentiment at near-record lows in early October as concerns about the economy intensified.

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Import prices rose 1.1% in September as factory output edged back up

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 21:25:00 GMT

Imported goods inflation came in above forecast while manufacturing production and capacity use both improved, leaving the hard data pointing in two directions at once.

Overall US import prices rose 1.1% in September after a 0.5% increase in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The figure came in above the 0.8% that had been expected, against a previous reading of 0.5%. The BLS published the September import and export price indexes on Friday.

On the output side, US manufacturing production was reported at 1.1% on a year-on-year basis, up from 0.9%. Capacity utilisation for September came in at 76.9%, above the 76.5% expected and the 76.4% previously recorded. Trading Economics described factory output as recovering slightly, in line with forecast.

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The US budget deficit reaches $1.99 trillion, the widest in five years

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 21:25:00 GMT

Treasury figures for fiscal 2026 show a shortfall $217 billion larger than the year before, with interest costs supplying more than half of the increase.

The federal government closed fiscal 2026 with a budget deficit of $1.99 trillion, the largest in five years, according to Treasury Department figures released on Friday. The Well News reported the figure as $1.992 trillion, $217 billion more than the year before. Devdiscourse also put the year-on-year increase at $217 billion. The fiscal year ended on September 30, and the Honolulu Star-Advertiser noted that it was the first full budget year of the current administration.

IndexBox described the shortfall as the third-largest on record and said it was driven by record outlays. Firstpost and France 24 both reported it as the highest annual gap since 2021. The Treasury release was the subject of a CNBC report on the same day.

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Canadian home sales fall again while housing starts pick up before a live rate decision

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 14:32:00 GMT

Rising mortgage rates cut into September sales as construction starts edged higher, and the Bank of Canada faces a pivotal decision at the end of the month.

Canadian home sales fell in September as mortgage rates increased, Reuters reported, citing the Canadian Real Estate Association, whose account attributed the weaker activity to a Bank of Canada rate rise. Canadian housing starts rose in September though the pace remains soft, as the broader market shows signs of cooling into the end of the year, the Wall Street Journal reported. An economist quoted in that report said the weakening was not surprising given the latest increase in fixed mortgage rates and the prospect of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates further.

The central bank will get a raft of fresh data at the start of next week as it weighs what could be a pivotal interest rate decision at the end of the month, the Canadian Press reported in an article describing the decision as live. Reuters reported that Toronto stock futures edged higher, with gains in metals offsetting oil weakness, while investors weighed Governor Tiff Macklem’s warning on persistent energy-price pressures and their implications for rates.

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Britain’s economy grew 0.1% in August, defying forecasts of a contraction before the Budget

Thu, 15 Oct 2026 14:29:00 GMT

Official figures showed the UK economy expanded slightly in August when analysts had expected a small decline, and the IMF said Britain does not need to accelerate its deficit reduction.

The UK economy grew by 0.1% in August, defying analysts’ expectations of a slight contraction, the BBC reported. Sky News described the reading as surprise growth and said the economy was stronger than first thought. Morningstar reported that the monthly rise eased from a 0.4% increase in July over June. The Times said growth slowed but beat expectations, and quoted Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics.

The Guardian reported that the economy unexpectedly grew despite a fall in consumer spending, and called the reading a boost to the chancellor, John Healey. Healey said the figure was a sign of resilience ahead of his Budget. Separately, the International Monetary Fund said it is not recommending that Britain speed up its fiscal consolidation. “The UK is actually one country where action to reduce debt and deficit has been taken decisively,” the fund’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, said. The IMF had earlier raised its growth forecast for Britain.

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Social Security payments rise 3.6% next year, the largest increase in four years

Wed, 14 Oct 2026 21:26:00 GMT

The Social Security Administration set the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment at 3.6% for 76 million recipients, as the programme becomes a central argument in the midterm campaign.

Social Security recipients will see the largest rise in their monthly payments in four years in January, with a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment, Axios reported. The agency announced the adjustment for 76 million recipients of retirement and disability benefits, a figure set by law from the Consumer Price Index for the July-through-September quarter. The increase works out to about $900 a year, or $75 a month, for the average retiree.

The cutoff for Social Security taxes will rise to $192,300 in 2027, from $184,500 this year, with income above that threshold not subject to the tax, Axios reported. The American Action Forum confirmed the 3.6 percent figure for 2027 in its own note on the announcement. Breaking The News reported the same 3.6% benefit increase, and noted that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett commented on Wednesday’s inflation reading.

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US consumer prices rose 3.7% in September as fuel costs bit harder

Wed, 14 Oct 2026 14:31:00 GMT

The annual inflation rate accelerated from August and came in above expectations, and traders immediately lifted the odds of another Federal Reserve rate rise.

US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. The index rose 0.6% on the month, against a 0.4% monthly increase in August, when the annual rate was 3.4%. Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, gained 0.3% on the month. The BBC reported that the pace of price rises increased by more than expected and was driven by higher motor fuel costs.

The Wall Street Journal described the reading as a sign that high energy prices are tightening their squeeze on consumers ahead of next month’s midterm elections. PBS News said inflation worsened last month and remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Axios attributed the figures to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and said soaring energy prices had added to already stubborn price pressures.

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Federal contract spending is set to cross $1 trillion despite DOGE’s cuts

Tue, 13 Oct 2026 14:32:00 GMT

Procurement is on track for a record even as the cost-cutting drive claimed reductions elsewhere.

Spending on federal contracts has surged above $1 trillion despite the cuts made by the Department of Government Efficiency, Bloomberg reported. A surge in Department of Homeland Security spending has smashed records, according to the same account. Bloomberg Government reported that federal procurement spending is projected to cross the $1 trillion mark despite the DOGE cuts.

The New Republic argued that some of the increased spending is itself a result of the DOGE cuts, and pointed to an estimate by the Yale Budget Lab of $597 billion in lost revenue. National Review, writing from the opposite direction, said that for all the publicity they generated the DOGE cuts to federal staffing did not make a noticeable dent in the nation’s finances.

The two Bloomberg accounts describe the same procurement total, one as a surge already above the threshold and one as a crossing still projected. Both tie the record to the period in which the cost-cutting drive was operating.

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US home sales readings conflict as mortgage rates climb again

Tue, 13 Oct 2026 14:32:00 GMT

One account has September sales rising for the first time since May; another has sales at their lowest in more than a decade.

Home sales in September rose for the first time since May, with buyers taking advantage of a plateau in mortgage rates over the summer before the surge in rates in recent weeks, The Wall Street Journal reported. It put the increase at 1.5% over the previous month and said sales activity overall remained subdued.

Semafor reported the opposite direction on the same subject, saying US house sales have dropped to 12 year lows as borrowing costs spike. It attributed the move to increasing energy prices and higher-for-longer inflation expectations, which it said have sent mortgage rates to recent records. The two accounts do not identify the same series in their excerpts, and neither reconciles its figure with the other.

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A sharp deterioration in Chinese consumer sentiment lands on luxury

Mon, 12 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

LVMH’s biggest division shrank in the third quarter and Citi cut its target on a Hong Kong-listed jeweller, both citing consumer pressure.

LVMH’s fashion and leather goods sales slid in the third quarter, dashing hopes for the sector, CNBC reported. The company said that in the third quarter specifically Asia was penalised by a sharp macro-led deterioration in Chinese consumer sentiment, with a tangible impact on its results, in wording carried by both CNBC and KWSN.

Il Sole 24 Ore said the group disappointed the market, with revenue down 1.6 percent at current exchange rates, and linked the result to a slowdown in consumer spending. US News said third-quarter sales came in below expectations as the fashion and leather division shrank, dragged down by weak Chinese demand for the group’s flagship brands. KWSN summarised the quarter as China gloom hitting LVMH and dimming hopes of a luxury revival.

The same pressure showed up in a broker’s numbers. The Business Times said Citi dropped its target price on Laopu Gold to HK$400 as consumer spending faces pressure.

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US consumer sentiment falls to 46.3 and Wall Street reads it as a risk to the rally

Mon, 12 Oct 2026 14:48:00 GMT

The University of Michigan’s preliminary index dropped to 46.3 in October from 48.1 in September, and Bloomberg reports that Wall Street now treats the exhausted American shopper as the main threat to the equity market.

Overall consumer sentiment slipped to 46.3, down from 48.1 in September and 53.6 a year earlier, with survey director Joanne Hsu citing frustration in a quote the excerpt cuts off. One market report described the University of Michigan’s preliminary October reading as the lowest since May, with persistent inflation weighing on households. Another put the same decline at 46.3 from 48.1 and drew the conclusion that weaker confidence alone may not persuade the Federal Reserve to ease.

Survey data released on Friday showed the sharpest falls among lower-income households as cost-of-living worries mounted. A separate summary said sentiment slumped further in early October and pointed to a widening divergence between households, in a sentence the excerpt does not finish.

A third account of the release put the University of Michigan’s preliminary index at 46.3 in October against 48.1 in September, with the current-conditions component described in a clause the excerpt cuts off. Four separate reports of the same survey give the same two numbers, so the level is not in dispute.

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Washington lends crude from the strategic reserve after Hurricane Isaias

Sun, 11 Oct 2026 14:33:00 GMT

The Energy Department has authorised exchanges of reserve oil to two companies after the storm disrupted Gulf Coast supply.

The administration approved an emergency crude oil exchange to limit supply disruptions from Hurricane Isaias, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying the move would protect access for American families and businesses. The department said it had authorised exchanges of up to two million barrels each for both companies involved, which trade coverage identified as a loan of 4 million barrels of strategic reserve oil to Exxon and BP.

The mechanism is a borrowing facility rather than a sale: the coverage describes companies being allowed to borrow from the oil reserve to help with supply issues after the storm, and a loan of reserve oil to the two companies named. Isaias was the first hurricane of this year’s Atlantic storm season and made landfall as a storm whose category the excerpt does not give.

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Takaichi backs away from the reflationist label as Japan restarts a spending review

Sat, 10 Oct 2026 21:31:00 GMT

Japan’s prime minister is distancing herself from reflation after US complaints about the weak yen, while her finance minister reopens a review of more than 200 government funds.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is working to shed the reflationist label under market and US pressure, according to one account of her recent explanations of policy. Taken at face value, those explanations amount to a clear commitment to respect the Bank of Japan’s independence, the same report says. A second report sets the shift directly against Washington: Trump complained about the weak yen, and days later Takaichi signalled the end of reflation.

That report quotes a former Bank of Japan board member, Sayuri Shirai, now a professor at Keio University, saying that Washington has considerable political leverage, in a sentence the excerpt cuts off.

On the fiscal side, Japan has rebooted a spending review in the hunt for funds for Takaichi’s pledges. The finance ministry’s relaunched review of public spending targets more than 200 government funds. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told a press conference that the programme is vital for constructing a budget and tax framework, in a passage the excerpt cuts off. Other accounts describe the exercise as a relaunched DOGE-style fiscal review to identify funding sources for her spending policies.

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The New York Fed puts the rise in consumer goods prices down to tariffs

Sat, 10 Oct 2026 21:31:00 GMT

A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study finds tariffs account for the increase in consumer goods prices, as refunds start flowing back to companies and class actions ask who really paid.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has published a study concluding that tariff policy pushed consumer goods prices up, with one account reporting the finding as tariffs accounting for 100 percent of consumer goods inflation. Another report of the same study puts the increase at 2.9 percent by February. A third says the study found that for every one-point rise in the average tariff rate, consumer goods prices climb by about a quarter, in a sentence the excerpt cuts off.

The study also sets out the timing: a tariff’s full effect on consumer prices takes about a year to appear, and the tariff contribution to the consumer goods price level peaks and then retreats. One account frames the result as the New York Fed contradicting President Donald Trump, on the grounds that many prices would have fallen without the tariffs.

Voters have reached the same conclusion about incidence. A poll published this week found a majority of Americans say US consumers ultimately pay the cost of tariffs on imported goods.

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Canada sheds 68,300 jobs in September and the loonie hits an 18-month low

Fri, 09 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

A second consecutive monthly employment decline pushed the jobless rate to 6.5 percent and all but closed the door on a Bank of Canada rate rise.

Employers in Canada cut 68,300 jobs in September, nudging the unemployment rate up 0.1 percentage point to 6.5 percent. It was the second consecutive monthly decline, and the losses in August and September together total 110,000.

The composition was narrow rather than broad. The September fall was concentrated in the public sector, and the CBC reported the decline concentrated among youth aged 15 to 24. The Canadian dollar hit an 18-month low as the data clipped bets on a Bank of Canada interest rate increase this month.

The figures are the Bank of Canada’s last look at the labour market before its next interest rate decision, set for 28 October. Economists called the report quite disappointing. The Globe and Mail described the labour market as having stumbled again, and National Newswatch put the September result at a loss of 68,000 jobs with the unemployment rate at 6.5 percent.

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Consumer sentiment falls to 46.3 as current conditions set a record low

Fri, 09 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

The University of Michigan’s preliminary October index came in below forecasts, and its gauge of current conditions was the weakest on record.

The University of Michigan’s headline consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3 in its preliminary October reading, from 48.1 in September. That was below the 47.6 economists had expected. The index was down 3.7 percent on the month.

The detail was weaker than the headline. The survey’s measure of current economic conditions fell to 44.7, a new record low, from 50.9. Reuters reported sentiment as near a record low as frustration over the economy mounts. One account described the headline index as a five-month low and reported survey director Joanne Hsu pointing to cost-of-living pressure.

MishTalk reported that the interviews revealed broad agreement across the surveyed groups, rather than a result driven by one slice of the sample. Newsquawk, noting the miss against expectations, described the release as survey data that rarely reprices markets on its own. FXStreet, publishing the figure as it landed, framed the index as a gauge of whether consumers are willing to spend money, a key factor because consumer spending is a major driver of the US economy.

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US payrolls rose 29,000 in September as unemployment held at 4.2 percent

Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:37:00 GMT

Hiring nearly stalled last month while weekly layoff filings stayed below 200,000, leaving a labor market that is slow to hire and slow to fire.

US employers added 29,000 jobs in September, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The statistical agency itself described nonfarm employment as little changed on the month. The unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent, the same reading as the month before.

The release also revised the two preceding months. Those revisions cut 60,000 jobs from the July and August counts, so the summer was weaker than first reported. One market commentary set the September reading against the far larger monthly gains the agency was publishing in 2023, a comparison that measures how far the pace of hiring has fallen.

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WTO lifts its 2026 goods trade forecast to 3.9 percent

Thu, 08 Oct 2026 21:30:00 GMT

The World Trade Organization doubled its estimate for merchandise trade growth this year, crediting AI investment for offsetting disruption from the Middle East conflict.

The World Trade Organization raised its growth forecast for global trade in goods this year to 3.9 percent from 1.9 percent, and lifted its projection for next year to 4.1 percent from 2.6 percent. The Wall Street Journal called the upgraded pace the fastest global trade growth since the financial crisis.

In the same report the Geneva-based body projected global gross domestic product growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027, a far more subdued picture than the one it now paints for goods volumes. The organization said GDP growth remains modest, with regional disparities. The projections were set out in the organization’s own report and attributed to its director-general.

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New York Fed research finds tariff increases take about a year to reach shop prices

Wed, 07 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

A quarter of any tariff increase eventually reaches consumer goods prices, and most of it arrives only after twelve months.

Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York published results from a new research paper estimating the effect of tariffs imposed since 2025 on retail consumer prices. For every percentage point increase in average tariffs, consumer goods prices rise by about a quarter of a percent after one year. The report estimated that roughly one-quarter of a tariff increase is ultimately passed on to consumer goods prices.

The paper also splits the channel. Roughly two-thirds of the effect arises because tariffs raise the prices of imported consumer goods. The remaining third arises indirectly: tariffs increase the prices of goods made in the United States because producers pay more for imported parts and materials, and because producers raise their markups. The Washington Post reported the study’s estimate that tariffs drove up consumer goods inflation by about 2.9 percentage points as of February.

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India raises its policy rate for the first time in nearly four years

Wed, 07 Oct 2026 14:31:00 GMT

The Reserve Bank of India lifted the repo rate by 25 basis points and raised its growth and inflation forecasts on the same day.

The Reserve Bank of India raised its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent and shifted its policy stance to “calibrated tightening”. Reuters described the decision as India joining the global rate-tightening wave with its first increase in nearly four years. The BBC framed it as the country’s first bank rate hike since 2023, and tied it to growing inflation concerns. Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced the move and said near-term cuts are off the table.

The central bank lifted its real GDP growth projection for the current financial year to 7.1 percent from 6.7 percent, an increase of 40 basis points. It raised its inflation forecast for the same period to 5.2 percent from 5 percent. The sources do not agree on those figures: Fortune India reported the growth forecast at 7.5 percent and inflation at 5.1 percent, citing resilient domestic activity.

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Australian consumer sentiment slides to 80.4 after the RBA’s rate rise

Tue, 06 Oct 2026 21:24:00 GMT

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index fell 4.7% in October to its weakest reading since the 1990s, days after the Reserve Bank lifted rates to a 15-year high.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 4.7% to 80.4 in October from 84.4 in September, according to data released on Tuesday. Australian consumer confidence plunged to its worst level since the 1990s. The Australian Financial Review described the reading as a recession-era low.

The survey was conducted between 28 September and 1 October and covered 1,200 adults. Responses during the survey week showed a very sharp pull-back after the Reserve Bank’s decision. The central bank had lifted official interest rates to a 15-year high the previous week.

The Age described the result as a key gauge of consumer sentiment falling to a historic low after the Reserve Bank’s move, and quoted households describing a cost-of-living nightmare.

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US trade deficit widens to $105.6 billion as imports hit a record

Tue, 06 Oct 2026 21:24:00 GMT

August’s gap was the widest since just before the tariffs took effect last year, and economists now expect net trade to subtract from third-quarter growth.

The US trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion in August, the widest since just before the Trump tariffs were enacted last year. Record imports pushed the balance deep into the red. The Wall Street Journal put the gap at about $106 billion, with the United States buying more crude oil, gold and semiconductors from abroad.

The outcome was worse than forecasters expected. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a deficit of $102.0 billion. Exports rose 1.4 per cent over the month, but not by enough to keep pace with the import side. The balance sank deeper into the red even though tariffs remain in place.

The widening came despite the tariff regime that was meant to narrow it, a point carried in the reporting on the August figures.

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Spending keeps rising while US consumer sentiment sits at 48.1

Mon, 05 Oct 2026 21:35:00 GMT

Confidence readings are the weakest in more than a decade even as households buy more, splitting the signal ahead of the holiday quarter.

US consumer sentiment fell to 48.1 in September. Economists surveyed for the week ahead expect an October reading of 48.0, against that 48.1 preliminary end-September figure. Consumer confidence has not been this low in more than a decade, according to the experts cited in one survey round-up. The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points in September, following earlier declines, and University of Michigan survey work showed sentiment down 15 per cent this year.

Spending has not followed the mood down. US consumer spending is rising despite frustrations with persistent inflation and gloomy views about the economy, with outlays up because prices are climbing and because Americans are buying more goods. One account of the same data set describes the American consumer as crashing through inflation and driving growth.

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US payrolls rise 29,000 in September as revisions cut 60,000 from earlier months

Mon, 05 Oct 2026 14:36:00 GMT

A soft employment report lands two weeks after the Fed’s rate increase and days before the minutes that explain it.

US employers added 29,000 jobs in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation report. The unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, with the rate for Hispanic or Latino workers at 4.7%. The payroll figure came from the bureau’s survey of employers and was soft across nearly every major industry.

Revisions deepened the picture. The BLS cut a combined 60,000 jobs from earlier estimates, turning July from a gain of 21,000 into a loss of 10,000. The bureau flagged significant downward revisions alongside the headline number. Unemployment edged up in the month, with the midterm elections weeks away.

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US payrolls add 29,000 in September as unemployment rises to 4.2%

Sun, 04 Oct 2026 14:23:00 GMT

Hiring came in far below expectations and the jobless rate ticked up, weakening the case for another Federal Reserve rate increase this month.

The US economy added 29,000 jobs in September, far short of expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in August. Employment in most major sectors was largely unchanged, with health care the main exception at gains of 17,000. The labour force, which counts people working or looking for work, grew by 485,000. Average hourly earnings for all employees were up 3.0 percent, with wages continuing to lag behind inflation.

The September figure follows stronger months. Employers added 162,000 jobs in August and 31,000 the month before. The release also carried downward revisions to the previous two months, and July employment was revised. Econbrowser called the print a downside surprise but said that, taking an early benchmark into account, it was not changing the picture too much. The Black unemployment rate jumped to 7% in September, the sharpest rise since 2020.

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Vietnam’s third-quarter growth hits 9.95% as exports jump

Sat, 03 Oct 2026 21:28:00 GMT

Growth was the fastest in four years and beat the median forecast by more than a percentage point, with exports up 24.5%.

Vietnam’s gross domestic product grew 9.95% year on year in the third quarter, surpassing a median forecast of 8.65%, Nation Thailand reported. VnExpress International and Vietnam Plus reported the same figure. Malay Mail reported that it was the fastest quarterly growth in four years and that exports jumped 24.5%. Trading Economics reported it as the strongest reading since 2022.

Business Today Malaysia reported that nine-month growth reached 9.01%, citing Vietnam’s National Statistics Office, and that exports provided a major boost. Bloomberg reported that the economy accelerated more than expected and that trade is back in surplus, framing the quarter as progress toward a 10% goal. Macau Business reported the quarterly figure as above 9%.

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US payrolls add 29,000 in September as earlier months are revised down

Sat, 03 Oct 2026 14:25:00 GMT

Hiring came in far below forecasts and the Bureau of Labor Statistics cut its estimates for July and August.

The US economy added 29,000 jobs in September, far short of expectations. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2 percent. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had looked for a gain of 84,000. Econbrowser recorded the release as an employment downside surprise. The Bureau of Labor Statistics characterised employment changes across major industries as small.

The revisions were the second half of the release. The agency now shows the labour market losing 10,000 jobs in July and adding 133,000 in August. Reporting of the August figure before that revision had put the gain at 162,000. Econbrowser, noting cumulative downward revisions to the previous two months and taking the early benchmark into account, judged that the picture was not changing too much. Within September, the private sector added 46,000 jobs while government payrolls shrank. The finance sector took a hit.

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US payrolls rose 29,000 in September as the jobless rate edged up to 4.2%

Fri, 02 Oct 2026 21:24:00 GMT

Hiring came in far below forecasts and the Bureau of Labor Statistics cut its tallies for the two prior months.

The US economy added 29,000 jobs in September, according to data released on Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.2 percent. Business Insider put the figure far below an expected 90,000. NBC News reported that economists had looked for an addition of 84,000 jobs, and Tech Times cited a forecast range of 84,000 to 90,000.

The statistical agency also marked down earlier months. Tech Times reported that the BLS cut its July and August tallies by a combined 60,000. The Highland County Press reported that August alone was revised down by 29,000.

Health care led what gains there were, adding 17,000 positions. France 24 reported that employment in most major sectors was largely unchanged, with health care posting the gains. Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs, driven by machinery and by plastics and rubber products.

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September Payrolls Come In Far Short of Expectations

Fri, 02 Oct 2026 14:31:00 GMT

US employers added 29,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2 per cent, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to hold in October.

The US added 29,000 jobs in September, far short of expectations. The reading was described as a sign that the labour market remains steady but may not be able to deliver consistent and sizable employment gains. Anemic hiring fell far short of forecasts even as the unemployment rate stayed near historic lows.

The jobless rate still moved. Unemployment rose to 4.2 per cent in September, though it has remained remarkably stable amid population shifts and a decline in labour force participation. One account characterised the month as a sharp slowdown in the jobs market, with American employers pausing hiring as midterm elections approach.

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SNAP’s funding model shifts to the states as new rules take effect

Thu, 01 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

From 1 October, states pick up a larger share of food-stamp costs just as tighter eligibility rules and a cost-of-living increase land together.

Changes to SNAP benefits began on 1 October for millions of Americans. A cost-of-living adjustment has raised the monthly allocation for recipients. At the same time, changes made in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill are tightening SNAP eligibility just as that increase takes effect. The provision was signed into law in 2025. US News reported that the new SNAP eligibility and Medicaid rules took effect together, and set out what recipients need to know.

The programme’s funding model is starting to change. States now cover more of the cost to run SNAP, including paying for workers and staff training. Forty states have appropriated funds for the new SNAP administrative cost share to address the funding gap. The Act also created a cost share for SNAP benefits themselves.

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Second-quarter GDP revised up to 2.2% while consumer confidence falls to a 2014 low

Thu, 01 Oct 2026 14:28:00 GMT

The final reading of second-quarter growth came in well above the previous estimate and above forecasts, on the same week that household confidence fell to its lowest level in more than a decade.

The US economy grew 2.2% in the second quarter on the Commerce Department’s final count, beating forecasts and well above the previous estimate of 1.5%. AFP reported the department revised its estimate upwards by 0.7 percentage points to 2.2 percent. Advisor Perspectives noted the figure was revised higher from both the advance and second estimates, at an annualised rate of 2.2%.

The composition was strong. Against the earlier estimate, personal consumption was marked up to 3.8% from 3.4%, capital investment to 9.0% from 8.5% and growth to 2.2% from 1.5%. The Wall Street Journal asked whether rising yields on the 10-year Treasury reflect accelerating economic growth, noting the Commerce Department had raised its estimate.

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Second-quarter growth revised up to 2.2% as consumer confidence slides

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 21:25:00 GMT

The final estimate of spring output was stronger than economists expected, while the Conference Board’s confidence index fell to its lowest reading in more than a decade.

The US economy grew at an annualised 2.2 percent in the second quarter, an upgrade to the previous estimate. The figure came in the last of three Commerce Department estimates of second-quarter GDP growth, and was revised higher from both the advance and second estimates according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis third estimate. The Wall Street Journal reported the revision as taking growth to 2.2 percent from a prior estimate of 1.5 percent.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be unrevised, and Reuters attributed the upgrade to robust consumer spending.

Spending data pointed the same way. Inflation-adjusted US consumer spending rose the most in 17 months, with goods spending up 1.3 percent, reversing a 0.5 percent decline in the prior month.

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US consumer confidence falls to its lowest level in more than a decade

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 14:24:00 GMT

The Conference Board index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9, the weakest reading since 2014.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, following two prior months of softening. That is the lowest level since 2014. The Hill and Marketplace described the reading as a 12-year low. The research group attributed the fall to elevated oil prices and inflation worries.

A separate sentiment gauge told the same story. Its final results for September showed the Index for Consumer Sentiment declined by 7% compared with a month ago. Retail Dive reported sentiment at a four-month low, while noting consumers have shown no matching pullback in spending. Al Jazeera said the drop landed ahead of the midterms.

Reuters-syndicated coverage carried by WITN described households facing rising costs as confidence fell to a 12-year low.

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US consumer confidence falls to its lowest level since 2014

Tue, 29 Sep 2026 21:22:00 GMT

The Conference Board index came in at 81.9 for September, far below consensus, while the University of Michigan gauge fell to its second-lowest reading on record.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index registered 81.9 for September against a consensus of 89.2 and a previous reading of 88.6. That is a fall of 6.7 points on the month and a miss against expectations. The reading is the lowest since 2014.

Econbrowser noted that the index is currently three standard deviations below its mean, measured against the 2021 to 2025 period. A second account confirmed the actual reading of 81.9 and described it as signalling caution ahead.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, released the preceding Friday, fell to 48.1 in September from 51.7 in August. That survey also recorded a 7% decline on the month, leaving it at the second-lowest level on record.

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US and China publish tariff-cut lists covering $60 billion of goods, with soybeans left out

Tue, 29 Sep 2026 15:42:00 GMT

Washington and Beijing each named non-sensitive products for more favourable tariff treatment, but set no timeline and excluded the largest US farm export.

The United States and China unveiled lists of goods eligible for $60 billion in tariff cuts, without a timeline for when reductions take effect. Each side recommended about $30 billion of non-sensitive goods for more favourable treatment. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer described the products as non-sensitive goods that could benefit from more favourable tariff treatment.

The published categories are consumer-facing. They span agriculture, toys and toasters, dolls and fireworks, American hair products and Chinese toys, and small appliances such as coffee makers. Rare earths remain a sticking point. The Chinese Commerce Ministry said the agreement would further the relationship.

The lists follow the Trump-Xi meeting and accompany an extension of the trade truce, described in one report as a two-month extension and in another as running until 10 January.

Coverage described the arrangement as easing inflation while also allowing Chinese firms to benefit from lower duties into the US market. The Chinese Commerce Ministry framed the lists as advancing the wider relationship.

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US consumer confidence drops to 81.9, the weakest reading since 2014

Tue, 29 Sep 2026 15:42:00 GMT

The Conference Board’s index fell 6.7 points in September as households turned more negative on prices and on the labour market.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, following two prior months of softening. The research group attributed the decline to elevated oil prices and inflation worries. Coverage described the reading as the lowest since 2014, and as a more than 12-year low.

The fall was sharper than forecasters expected. Consumers took a dimmer view of the labour market as well as of the effect of higher prices. A separate sentiment survey put its September reading at 48.1, citing petrol prices, tariffs and interest rates, with inflation worries identified as the main driver. Another final reading showed sentiment down 3.6 points on the month.

Markets reacted immediately. Gold jumped to a session high of $4171 an ounce after the confidence figure was published.

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Fitch warns an AI-driven correction could tip the US into recession

Mon, 28 Sep 2026 14:31:00 GMT

The agency lifted its global growth forecast while naming AI spending as the central downside risk.

Fitch Ratings warned that a collapse in AI spending could tip the United States into recession. In its September outlook the agency raised its global GDP growth forecast for the year by 0.2 percentage point to 2.6 per cent, from 2.4 per cent, while retaining its projections for the two following years. Under the agency’s downside case, an AI-driven market correction would push global growth below 1 per cent.

The spending forecasts themselves keep rising. Goldman Sachs projects hyperscaler capital expenditure of roughly $1.2 trillion, above market consensus. One summary put the increase in AI capital expenditure at 54 per cent. Another estimate placed next year’s hyperscaler capex between $1.1 trillion and $1.2 trillion, with memory alone accounting for 50 to 60 per cent of the total. The-decoder said the bank’s figure dwarfs Wall Street estimates.

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US and China publish the product lists behind their tariff-cut deal

Mon, 28 Sep 2026 14:31:00 GMT

Washington and Beijing named goods for reduced duties after the Trump and Xi meeting, though accounts of the package size differ.

The United States and China released reciprocal product lists for tariff cuts following the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The White House published what it called the U.S.-China Board of Trade lists of products recommended for reduced tariff treatment, to be applied in a reciprocal manner. Al Jazeera described the framework as $30 billion for $30 billion. Nikkei Asia reported that the lists take in Christmas ornaments, lumber and camels, and the Financial Times cited goods running from foie gras to camels.

Accounts of the headline size disagree. Bloomberg, ABC News and Anadolu described a $30 billion framework. Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Business Times reported cuts covering $60 billion of goods. The Straits Times headlined a $38 billion deal. Global Times said the cuts cover $30 billion worth of imports, with 90 per cent of products moving to most-favoured-nation rates, a proportion Anadolu also reported.

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