ActiveInvestorMag.com: Structural Indicators

Treasury yields drop below 5% and the Nasdaq loses more than 2.5% as investors turn defensive

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 21:17:00 GMT

A rush into government bonds on 22 October pulled the 10-year US yield under 5% while technology shares fell on doubts about the returns from AI spending.

The Nasdaq fell more than 2.5% on 22 October as lacklustre earnings reports sparked worries about an AI slowdown. Investors are increasingly unsure about the return prospects of the massive investments behind the technology. Sharply lower yields gave a modest lift to the Dow and the Russell indexes even as technology shares slid.

US bond yields plunged as fears about sustaining the AI boom resurfaced, and the 10-year yield dipped below 5%. Yields sank below that level as investors looked for safety, in a move framed as “AI is on trial”. Municipal bonds and Treasuries rallied together in a flight to quality.

The shift came before the US open. Late on the previous afternoon, equity futures were holding gains after well-received earnings, but by early morning both equity index futures and bond yields were sharply lower. Global investors were aggressively de-risking their portfolios. Yields had already dipped on 21 October as AI risk was weighed, before moving off their lows after an auction.

Why it matters to investors, and what to watch: on the site.

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A $13 billion sale of 20-year Treasury bonds clears at a higher yield as reports split on demand

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 21:18:00 GMT

The auction priced at 5.469%, up from 5.420% a month earlier, and tailed by 0.9 basis points, though accounts of investor appetite differed.

The US Treasury sold $13 billion of 20-year bonds on Wednesday at a high yield of 5.469%.

That compared with a high yield of 5.420% at the previous sale of the same maturity. The auction tailed by 0.9 basis points.

Last month’s sale was also $13 billion and drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.57.

The sale was held at 18:00 GMT and had been billed in advance as another test of demand for US government debt. Treasury yields were steady on the day as investors awaited jobless claims and mortgage data.

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UK public debt passes £3 trillion for the first time as borrowing climbs before Healey’s Budget

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 21:18:00 GMT

A deficit of £97.8 billion over the first half of the fiscal year and rising debt interest narrow the chancellor’s room for manoeuvre.

Britain’s public debt has surpassed £3 trillion for the first time.

The fiscal deficit reached £97.8 billion from April to September, the first half of the financial year. Debt and the deficit rose in September alongside inflation.

Central government debt interest came to £10.9bn in September alone.

The borrowing figures were released on Wednesday together with inflation data, which showed consumer price inflation rising to 3.5% from 3.1%. Both inflation and borrowing hit their highest levels this year.

The release leaves the government confronting rising inflation and rising debt in the same week as it finalises the Budget.

Why it matters to investors, and what to watch: on the site.

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The ECB makes its case in China for euro liquidity lines to widen the currency’s global role

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 14:16:00 GMT

Chief Economist Philip Lane argued that backstops in euros for foreign central banks could support sovereign bond markets and help the ECB hit its inflation target.

The European Central Bank made the case in China for euro liquidity lines. The ECB argued that it can strengthen the euro’s global role and amplify the reach of its monetary policy by providing liquidity safety nets.

Chief Economist Philip Lane said wider global use of the euro could help the ECB hit its inflation target. He said a global euro liquidity backstop could support sovereign bond markets.

The ECB set out how the tools would work in a publication on euro liquidity lines and the international monetary system. In the bank’s account, swap lines can be used against local-currency collateral, so that combined swap and EUREP access offers stronger support than EUREP alone.

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French borrowing costs near a 24-year high as the spread over Germany widens to the most since 2012

Tue, 20 Oct 2026 21:17:00 GMT

Paris expects to spend more than 90 billion euros on debt interest next year, and the US Treasury secretary says he sees no spillover.

French bond yields neared a 24-year high on Tuesday as new protests loomed. Spreads between French 10-year debt and the German equivalent widened to their highest since 2012, following a weekend of violent protests in France. It is the latest stage of unrest that has weighed on French markets since the protests began.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he does not anticipate a spillover from the French bond market, which has seen surging yields. Later in the day, French government bonds recovered as yields on eurozone and US peers fell.

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Defence shares fall as investors start pricing a Democratic sweep in the midterms

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 21:20:00 GMT

The Financial Times reports that a proposed military spending increase is at risk as bipartisan support for a larger budget frays two weeks before the vote.

US defence stocks tumbled as investors bet on a Democratic election sweep, the Financial Times reported, with Trump’s proposed $500bn military spending boost at risk as bipartisan support for a higher budget frays. The administration’s ambitions have been large: the White House introduced a record $1.5 trillion defense budget request for 2027 earlier this year, about a 44% increase from the previous year.

The sell-off sits oddly against the sector’s current results, with RTX and GE Aerospace leading defence earnings amid soaring demand. Reuters coverage of the possible election outcomes said debt ceiling fights, budget battles and government shutdown threats loom in 2027, and that analysts expect a debt limit showdown by summer. Democrats would also gain the power to investigate the administration.

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S&P Global says the big cloud companies carry more AI-linked debt than their balance sheets show

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 21:20:00 GMT

The rating agency says circular financing between chipmakers, neoclouds and hyperscalers leaves obligations it cannot yet size, as AI bond prices slip.

The top hyperscalers likely have more AI-linked debt than is now known, S&P Global warned on Monday. The agency’s Habib said there was not an estimate of how much additional debt the circular financing might add to the firms’ balance sheets, although he said S&P was examining it. Debt issued by AI infrastructure providers and so-called neocloud firms such as Nvidia-backed CoreWeave has sunk to increasingly stressed levels.

The warning lands alongside other credit signals. The Wall Street Journal reported that the weak points in AI bonds are becoming clearer. NPR examined Oracle’s borrowing, noting that the company has taken on a large volume of loans to build out its AI capacity. Morgan Stanley’s projected AI-related capital spending for 2027 is concentrated, with roughly 77% attributed to high-quality hyperscalers and the remaining 23% sitting with weaker borrowers.

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CoreWeave’s bonds yield 15% as the high-yield market reprices the data-centre buildout

Sun, 18 Oct 2026 21:20:00 GMT

The company’s cost of debt has moved with the whole asset class, and PIMCO puts hyperscaler capital spending at 93% to 94% of operating cash flow.

CoreWeave’s high-yield bond yield has reached 15%, while the yield on the broader high-yield market hit an 18-month high of 8.41%, TokenPost reported. That is the point worth holding on to: the move is not confined to one borrower. Earlier reporting had focused on the price of insuring CoreWeave’s debt against default.

PIMCO has estimated that hyperscaler capital spending now absorbs 93% to 94% of operating cash flow, before any debt financing enters the picture, according to an account of the financing strains in the buildout. The Motley Fool argued that CoreWeave is in a more difficult financial position than its peers and has fewer financing options, facing a choice between high-yield bonds and dilutive equity sales.

The Economist reported that the industry’s debts are making investors nervous, citing the price of credit-default swaps offering insurance against a CoreWeave default, and noting the role of private-credit providers including Apollo and Blackstone.

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The price of insuring CoreWeave’s debt jumps as AI credit worries reach Oracle and SoftBank

Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:23:00 GMT

Default protection on the AI cloud company’s debt priced at distressed levels, and bondholders of larger AI borrowers took losses too.

The cost of insuring CoreWeave’s debt against default climbed to about 1,200 basis points this week, a level Reuters described as signalling severe distress. One market report put the company’s total debt above $51 billion and tied the move to a broad fall in chip stocks, with the Nasdaq down more than two per cent on the session and Micron among the decliners.

The strain is not confined to one borrower. Investors have also sold bonds of other large AI companies, including Larry Ellison’s Oracle, though those price declines were not as steep, according to a report on cracks in the AI borrowing boom that also named SoftBank. A separate account listed the symptoms in order: large contracts do not erase financing risk, the cost of insuring debt has jumped, the high-yield bond market is under pressure and private credit faces a new test.

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Washington taps the strategic reserve as refinery bottlenecks push fuel costs onto companies

Sat, 17 Oct 2026 21:20:00 GMT

The United States has solicited an exchange of up to 17 million barrels of crude from its strategic reserve while diesel and heating bills climb.

The United States has solicited an exchange of up to 17 million barrels of oil from its strategic petroleum reserve. Barron’s reported that the squeeze is not only in crude: refinery bottlenecks are driving the jump at the pump and could dampen US growth, with consumer sentiment spiralling as the University of Michigan’s index weakens. One review of the administration’s recent energy announcements notes that Defense Production Act money is going towards a 74,000 barrel-a-day Texas refinery, and cautions that several of the headlines were less substantive than they sounded.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright told a world oil and gas conference in Riyadh that the shortage of oil tankers is becoming a problem, and said Washington was considering easing sanctions on shadow-fleet vessels. One industry account describes the whole energy supply chain as being squeezed rather than any single link.

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Bets on an October Fed hike collapse to 14% as gold and the dollar both end the week lower

Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:21:00 GMT

Two hotter-than-expected inflation reports did not stop the market pricing an October hold, and the dollar had its worst week in a month.

The chances of the Federal Reserve raising its key rate this month fell from 47% to 14% over the week, Interactive Brokers reported, as investors weighed hotter-than-anticipated consumer and producer inflation reports against turbulence on Wall Street driven by AI concerns and neutral commentary from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The New York Post reported traders betting on an October hold after Warsh stayed tight-lipped at the conference despite the week’s hot inflation data.

The repricing showed up across assets. Bloomberg reported that the dollar had its worst week in a month, its monthlong rally running out of steam after Warsh’s remarks failed to give the currency a lift. Gold was set for a weekly drop as traders assessed Fed signals, Reuters reported, even as futures settled higher on the day while US yields and the dollar fell. The Economic Times reported that ten-year Treasury yields suffered their biggest weekly drop in over a year.

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Chip stocks head for their longest losing run since 2008 before a Friday rebound

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 21:25:00 GMT

A multi-day selloff in semiconductors and AI infrastructure names eased as investors rotated out of technology and bought the dip.

Chip stocks were set for their longest losing run since 2008, Bloomberg reported in its markets wrap. The Nasdaq slid to near a one-month low as the AI rout deepened. Newsquawk reported stocks mixed at the US open as the AI selloff continued, with the Treasury yield curve steepening and front-end yields declining after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh again declined to give explicit guidance.

The run of losses then broke. Trading Economics reported US stocks rebounding as the chipmaker selloff eased, with chipmakers and AI hyperscalers paring losses after Nvidia’s Jensen Huang pushed back on concerns about CoreWeave, whose shares rose 5.9%. Semafor reported that US stocks recovered after the multi-day technology selloff. Bloomberg reported the S&P 500 steady, down less than 0.1%, as Warsh’s remarks boosted expectations of a rate hold.

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Treasury yields fall to a three-week low even as inflation data run hot

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 21:25:00 GMT

The ten-year note yield slipped to 5.075% as traders pushed their expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate rise out to December.

US ten-year Treasury yields fell to a three-week low as Federal Reserve remarks eased bets on a near-term rate rise, with Governor Michelle Bowman saying the central bank had sufficient time to wait and assess developments in financial markets. Finimize reported the two-year note at 4.715% and the ten-year at 5.075%, leaving a gap of 35.8 basis points between them, and said traders had pushed their Fed expectations to December.

Trading Economics reported yields ticking higher on the day but posting a weekly decline, and separately reported the ten-year holding its decline as markets increasingly priced in a possible slowdown in artificial intelligence spending. Mott Capital Management described the fall in yields as continuing despite hot inflation reports.

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Banks pull back from AI lending as the gap between build cost and revenue widens

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 14:32:00 GMT

Financiers are saying publicly that the debt funding data centres and chips looks disconnected from what customers are paying, and CoreWeave’s shares fell again on Friday.

Wall Street appears to be hitting its limit on AI, and financiers are starting to say the quiet part out loud, that all of this AI spending does not look like it can pay off, at least not for everyone, Axios reported. The gap between what it costs to build AI infrastructure and what companies are actually paying to use it is widening, and anxiety is surging as the debt piling up to fund data centres and chips looks increasingly disconnected from economic reality. AI providers are projected to spend $7 trillion on infrastructure through 2030.

CoreWeave stock was falling again on Friday even after Nvidia’s chief executive, Jensen Huang, expressed confidence in the cloud-computing company, Barron’s reported. Reuters reported that CoreWeave has relied heavily on private-credit investors, banks and bond markets to fund its rapid expansion. CNBC asked whether the AI sector is losing its rose-coloured glow, and reported Huang saying his company must cooperate with Chinese AI businesses to manage potential risks.

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Hormuz shipping disruption starts to reach harvests and food costs, a UN agency says

Thu, 15 Oct 2026 21:25:00 GMT

A United Nations agency says the strait’s disruption is adding costs through the food supply chain, on top of Black Sea wheat problems.

Disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is starting to hit harvests, a United Nations agency said, according to Reuters. The disruption, together with problems affecting Black Sea wheat supplies, is adding costs throughout the food supply chain, an official at the agency said. Iran has sought to tighten its grip on the strait, Reuters reported in the same account.

A separate summary of the crisis described it as threatening global food supplies as the shipping disruption hits harvests, and said Iran is trying to control the strait to exert pressure on Washington, which is enforcing a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Rising grain freight rates, together with Panama Canal restrictions and Black Sea disruption, are changing the export costs of US corn, wheat and soybeans, according to an account of global grain freight.

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Moody’s says deferred interest is masking the real level of private credit stress

Thu, 15 Oct 2026 14:29:00 GMT

The ratings firm found that US private credit borrowers are using delayed interest payments and maturity extensions to avoid default, which flatters the sector’s reported default statistics.

Borrowers in the US private debt market are using delayed interest payments and maturity extensions to avoid default, potentially masking the level of stress in the asset class, according to research from Moody’s Ratings reported by Bloomberg. Private Equity Wire, summarising the same research, described the mechanism as payment-in-kind amendments that mask US private credit stress and noted the implications for reported default rates.

A second measurement dispute surfaced the same week. Bloomberg reported that daily private credit valuations were blasted as an “illusion” after a move by Apollo, with the new daily marks slammed following the rollout, under the heading of murky default metrics. A separate analysis argued that the data behind the sector’s default picture is missing, describing a default crisis whose scale an earlier instalment had set out.

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CoreWeave’s bond yields approach 15% and put a price on AI debt

Wed, 14 Oct 2026 21:26:00 GMT

Bonds issued by the AI cloud provider sold off sharply, pushing yields toward 15% and drawing attention to how much of the data-centre build-out is being financed with borrowed money.

CoreWeave’s shares tumbled as its bond yields neared 15% on concern about the company’s borrowing, CNBC reported. Yahoo Finance said the stock sank after the bond yield touched 15%, and that the venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya had posted a chart of it on Tuesday. Quartz noted the mechanics: as is standard with fixed-income securities, the rising yields reflected falling bond prices.

The Globe and Mail reported that the company already has $35 billion in debt and that its interest expense is driving steep losses. The Financial Times reported that CoreWeave has secured more than $35 billion this year across chip-backed loans, high-yield bonds, convertible bonds and share sales. A summary of the FT’s reporting put the company’s debt and lease obligations at about $52 billion at the end of June.

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The Energy Department issues an emergency grid order for PJM as October heat lingers

Wed, 14 Oct 2026 21:26:00 GMT

Energy Secretary Chris Wright invoked the Federal Power Act to let the mid-Atlantic grid operator run additional generation, citing blackout risk during unusual autumn heat.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright signed Order No. 202-26-50 on October 12, invoking Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act, Quartz reported. The Economic Times reported that the order was issued to PJM Interconnection to maintain grid stability and allows the operator to take steps it otherwise could not. Wright said the order would help ensure Americans have secure electricity by making additional power generation available, according to The New York Times.

The Rock Hill Herald reported that PJM serves more than a dozen states, including those in the mid-Atlantic, where Wright said there is a period of elevated risk. Other coverage described the action as a grid emergency declared across 13 states. WFMD reported that the emergency action comes as temperatures across parts of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic are expected to stay unusually warm for October.

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IMF’s Georgieva says faster US growth alone will not shrink the debt pile

Wed, 14 Oct 2026 14:31:00 GMT

The fund’s managing director told reporters at the annual meetings that growth without deficit reduction will not stabilise US debt.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said on Wednesday that US growth will not be enough to shrink the country’s debt, in Reuters copy carried by Taylorville Daily News. Bloomberg reported that she said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s plan to grow the economy out of its mounting debt and fiscal deficit problems will not work. CNBC noted that Bessent has argued that sustained growth above 3%, together with spending restraint, can lower the debt-to-GDP ratio.

Georgieva spoke at a press briefing during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, the South China Morning Post reported. The fund published a transcript of the briefing, at which its communications director also took questions.

Taylorville Daily News’s version of the wire copy notes that Georgieva was speaking to reporters at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings.

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A brutal session for chip stocks and a fund manager survey point to the AI trade turning

Tue, 13 Oct 2026 14:32:00 GMT

Semiconductors sold off hard while a monthly survey put AI capex at the top of investors’ credit worries.

A “brutal session” for chip stocks shows the AI trade is turning, Reuters reported in an analysis of the selloff. The piece pointed to the financing behind the buildout, noting that Japan’s tech investor SoftBank last month sold the biggest high-yield debt pile ever and promised to pay as much as 9.75% on $4.5 billion it raised.

The selloff reached beyond Wall Street. A chip selloff dragged Asian markets lower as Wall Street earnings and US inflation data loomed, one market wrap reported, noting that because US rates influence global capital flows the data matters well beyond American markets. Among individual names, TTM Technologies was down 17.1% after accelerating its AI-focused capacity expansion.

Reuters presented the session as evidence of a turn rather than as a single day’s volatility, and tied that reading to the debt raised to fund the buildout.

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The IMF warns bond yields could spike in a disorderly way and flags leverage in AI and private credit

Tue, 13 Oct 2026 14:32:00 GMT

The fund’s financial stability report puts the sharpest losses from an AI repricing in the United States.

The International Monetary Fund has warned that bond yields could see a disorderly spike as debt and inflation risks worsen, CNBC reported. The fund urged debt managers to lengthen maturities, warning that rollover risk could be made worse, and its discussion extended to yield curve control. In its own blog post the fund said global financial markets face rising risks from AI, bond yields and cyberattacks, that debt needs to be put on a sustainable path, and that leverage and liquidity mismatches in AI, private credit and other nonbank financial sectors should be addressed.

The fund also located the equity risk geographically. The United States could be worst hit by an AI market correction, MarketWatch reported, citing the fund’s view that a reappraisal of AI productivity gains would set off a domino effect and that US equity prices could fall. One account of the same report said the fund warned an AI market correction could cut global GDP by 0.4% by 2028. These are the fund’s own projections, not observed outcomes.

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A surge in US yields pulls mortgage hedging into the bond selloff

Mon, 12 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

Mortgage investors adjusting to a steeper curve are adding pressure to a Treasury market already carrying $40 trillion of federal debt.

A rise in US Treasury yields has triggered hedging by mortgage investors that is adding to pressure in the bond market, Reuters reported on Monday, saying the trades suggested investors were adjusting positions to reflect shifts in the yield curve. An analysis carried by WTVB explained the mechanism: mortgage-backed securities are pools of thousands of home loans through which investors receive cash flows from homeowners’ monthly principal and interest payments, so a move in rates changes how long those cash flows last and forces holders to rebalance.

Interest.co.nz put the US 10-year yield at just on 5.24 percent and the 30-year at 5.60 percent, both little changed on the day, with the 2-year to 10-year curve at plus 45 basis points. Interactive Brokers’ weekly recap said US federal debt has topped $40 trillion, with rising costs and higher yields making bonds more attractive to investors.

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Oil producers say shipping and insurance costs for energy flows have surged

Mon, 12 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

Ministers meeting in Riyadh put freight and war-risk cover at the centre of the delivered cost of oil.

Shipping and insurance costs for energy flows have surged, ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC producers said on Monday, according to Reuters. OPEC said the energy and oil ministers of the countries participating in its Declaration of Cooperation held the meeting on the sidelines of the 17th International Energy Forum ministerial meeting and the 25th World Petroleum Congress energy congress. Reuters placed the same gathering on the margins of those two events in Riyadh.

Newsquawk described the session as an OPEC-plus ministerial gathering convened on the margins of the forum, and ForexFactory, citing opec.org, said ministers of OPEC and non-OPEC participating countries met in Riyadh. The statements are the producers’ own account of conditions in the market they supply, not an independent measure of freight or premium rates.

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Gold drifts before US inflation data as reports split on which way it moved

Mon, 12 Oct 2026 14:48:00 GMT

Reuters has gold retreating as markets wait for key US inflation data, while other accounts of the same session had it steady, edging up or rallying, and the structural bid from central banks and exchange-traded funds is the one thing they agree on.

Reuters reported gold retreating as markets awaited key US inflation data, noting that sustained central bank buying is a longer-term support in a quote the excerpt cuts off. Other accounts of the same session read differently: one had gold steady as markets strapped in for the inflation data, one had it edging up as lower oil prices pared rate-hike expectations, one had it rising on hopes of a Fed pause as oil cheapened, one had it pushing higher on softening energy markets, and one had it rallying on a softer dollar and lower yields with $4,200 in view.

The direction is disputed; the cause given for it is not. Each of those accounts attaches the move to the same two things, the oil price and the coming US inflation release, rather than to anything inside the gold market.

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AI spending lifts borrowing costs worldwide as SoftBank’s next fund tests the doubters

Sun, 11 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

A Bloomberg column says Masayoshi Son’s second hundred-billion-dollar vehicle strengthens Ray Dalio’s warning, and the BIS has put a revenue test to the companies building the data centres.

Bloomberg Opinion argued that SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son’s attempt to set up another $100 billion AI-focused venture capital fund will only give the doubters more to work with, and that it underscores Ray Dalio’s AI warning. Son is asking Gulf investors for the money on top of his OpenAI bet, and last month the company tapped the bond market for $11.1 billion, the largest high-yield corporate bond sale ever recorded.

The cost of that financing is now a macro variable. One account reported that AI spending is pushing up borrowing costs around the world, with Wall Street estimates putting this year’s AI-related investment-grade issuance at a figure the excerpt does not complete. The same outlet wrote that AI borrowers now dominate half of America’s investment-grade market, in a sentence the excerpt cuts off.

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War and record debt set the agenda as finance chiefs gather in Bangkok

Sun, 11 Oct 2026 14:33:00 GMT

The IMF’s managing director has put rich-country borrowing costs at the centre of this year’s annual meetings, and the US Treasury secretary is not attending.

The war in the Middle East and high debt levels will dominate the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Reuters reported, with other coverage framing the agenda as the conflict plus energy supplies and as a triple threat to the global economy. One account summarised it as global finance chiefs facing war, an energy shock and record debt.

The US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, will be notably absent, dispatching two senior officials in his place while he handles what a US account called domestic engagements. His absence shifts leadership of the US delegation and comes at a point described as critical for benchmark Treasury yields, in a passage the excerpt cuts off.

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A Bundesbank warning and a Krugman line put France at the centre of Europe’s debt question

Sat, 10 Oct 2026 21:31:00 GMT

A Bundesbank official says the risk of a European debt crisis has risen sharply, while Paul Krugman says France may have crossed from too big to fail to too big to save.

A Bundesbank official has said that the risks of a European debt crisis have risen sharply. The warning was reported as Europe’s debt risks mounting while borrowing costs rise. The European Central Bank and other policymakers face the task of keeping financial stability while governments carry high debt, in a passage the excerpt cuts off.

Separately, the Nobel laureate Paul Krugman said that France may have crossed the line from too big to fail to too big to save, adding that it is all too easy to describe a really ugly scenario. One account of the same remarks renders the phrase as too big to bail out, or too big to rescue.

French government bond yields are near 5 percent, their highest since 2002. One market report notes that the Italian government pared back defence spending in a late change to its budget as it sought to narrow its shortfall.

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India opens a dollar window for state refiners and clamps down on rupee derivatives

Sat, 10 Oct 2026 21:31:00 GMT

The Reserve Bank of India will sell dollars directly to three state oil marketing companies from 12 October and has tightened the rules on forex derivatives.

The Reserve Bank of India has opened a special dollar facility for three state-run oil marketing companies, with the window in effect from 12 October. Under the framework, the central bank will sell US dollars to the state refiners through designated banks rather than directly. The facility will remain operational until further notice, the central bank said.

The RBI moved as the rupee came under pressure. One report puts the currency at 96.78 against the dollar. The central bank also introduced a Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve, and asked foreign exchange dealers to maintain it.

On derivatives, the RBI cut the exposure threshold to 5 million dollars from 100 million dollars, barred the rebooking of cancelled rupee-linked derivative contracts, and introduced a 20 percent cash reserve requirement for large forex derivative transactions.

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A data-centre developer pulls its listing as credit markets reprice the AI buildout

Fri, 09 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

Firmus cancelled its initial public offering on the same day default swaps on hyperscalers and chipmakers reached record levels.

Firmus, an Nvidia-backed data centre firm, scrapped its initial public offering, saying it had made the decision because of “recent market volatility and prevailing market conditions” as AI valuation concerns deepen.

The credit market moved in the same direction. Credit default swaps on hyperscalers and chipmakers have widened to record levels, IFR reported, as an accelerating AI arms race has turbocharged the capital spending requirements of hyperscalers, a departure for companies that were once asset-light. That last point is the structural one: firms that used to fund growth from cash flow are now funding it from balance sheets.

Below investment grade the signal is similar but less clean. CNBC reported that junk bonds are “flashing yellow”, with spreads having widened in the high-yield market, though it cautioned that the spread alone does not tell the whole story. BNP Paribas Asset Management reported that over the last month US high-yield option-adjusted spreads have jumped suddenly and significantly from a starting level of 267.

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Strategists warn the US 10-year Treasury yield could reach 6 percent

Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:37:00 GMT

Pimco and several market commentators say the benchmark yield may reach a level last seen in 2000, and they disagree about what would break if it got there quickly.

US 10-year Treasury yields risk hitting 6 percent for the first time since 2000, Pimco has warned. The firm’s warning was framed around debt roiling the world’s most important bond market.

The 10-year yield has surpassed 5 percent and may rise to 6 percent amid higher real yields and a flat yield curve, in one market summary. A separate analysis put the same case: rising nominal rates are being driven by higher real yields, and forward rates together with a historically flat yield curve suggest further upside for the 10-year yield.

Why it matters to investors, and what to watch: on the site.

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Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds at 5.618 percent

Thu, 08 Oct 2026 21:30:00 GMT

The long-bond auction cleared slightly above the level indicated beforehand, and accounts of what happened to yields afterwards diverge.

The United States Treasury sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds at a high yield of 5.618 percent, against a when-issued level of 5.617 percent at the time of the auction. A separate wire report described the security as a 29-year, 10-month bond clearing at the same 5.618 percent. Other accounts put the high yield at less than 5.62 percent on the same $22 billion size, while the figure of 5.618 percent appears in the fuller reports.

The sale came after two sessions of falling bond prices. US bonds fell for a second day as oil weighed on the market and the 30-year auction loomed, with the yield curve flattening on Thursday as the spread between two-year and 10-year yields narrowed to 48.9 basis points. Reuters noted the two-year to 10-year curve flattened on the day while remaining in a steepening trend, and that the Fed’s Waller said more increases are needed to lower inflation.

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Burry reads Big Tech’s AI spending as a bid to become too big to fail

Thu, 08 Oct 2026 14:34:00 GMT

The investor says the hyperscalers are spending for oligopoly status, and calls the market’s phase denial.

Michael Burry says Big Tech chief executives are betting on a “too big to fail” artificial intelligence oligopoly. He made the claim in a post on X, where he described the spending as a bid to be “too big [to] fail”. The argument, as summarised by the outlets carrying it, is that the companies are spending for oligopoly status rather than for a near-term return. Outlets identify him as the “Big Short” investor.

Burry has recently argued that the tech giants, with the exception of Apple, “are spending as if their lives depended on it”. He singled out Microsoft, saying it uses spending metrics “as a lever” to get its way, and questioned its AI and data-centre spending while warning of “too big to fail” oligopoly motives.

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Gold slides to a two-month low as the dollar and yields press on it

Thu, 08 Oct 2026 14:34:00 GMT

Bullion fell about 1 percent while China’s central bank extended its buying streak to a 23rd month.

Gold slid to a two-month low as a robust dollar and higher yields added pressure. The metal was down about 1 percent on the day as the dollar gained, with investors waiting on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting to gauge the central bank’s next policy steps. The reports were filed before the minutes were published, and they set the metal against expectations for the Fed rather than against the record.

One market report put the price below 4100 dollars and silver under 60 dollars an ounce, with US borrowing costs reaching a level last seen in 2002. Other outlets reported the same slide ahead of the minutes, with the dollar’s gain given as the immediate cause.

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Russia lifts war spending toward a record 200 billion dollars and nearly doubles its deficit

Wed, 07 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

Bloomberg reports Moscow raised military spending after Putin concluded the Alaska talks would not produce an acceptable deal.

Russia has sharply increased its military spending in 2026, taking it to a record level. Reports put the figure at a record $199 billion, while Bloomberg’s account as relayed by other outlets put it at $200 billion for the year. One report said defence spending is expected to approach about $199 billion by the end of 2026. In rouble terms, defence spending in 2026 could reach 17 trillion roubles.

The budget arithmetic moved with it. The projected deficit rose from 3.8 trillion roubles to more than 7 trillion. Authorities had initially expected a deficit of 3.8 trillion roubles. The deficit could exceed 7 trillion roubles once the higher spending is counted. Funding is being provided domestically.

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Ten-year Treasury yield reaches 5.35 percent before a strong auction pulls yields back

Wed, 07 Oct 2026 21:29:00 GMT

The global bond selloff resumed on Wednesday and carried US long yields to levels last seen in 2002, until a well-bid ten-year auction cooled it.

The US bond selloff resumed on Wednesday, lifting both the ten-year and the thirty-year Treasury yield to fresh 24-year highs. The ten-year yield reached 5.35 percent, its highest since April 2002. The thirty-year yield hit its highest level since 2002 as part of a global selloff. Earlier editions reported these yields retreating from a 24-year high; that move has now reversed.

The direction changed later in the session. A ten-year note auction drew strong demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.77. The Financial Times reported the sale cleared at a high yield of 5.3 per cent into strong demand, with primary dealers, the big banks responsible for buying any bonds investors do not absorb, taking a smaller share than usual. After the auction the selloff eased and yields came off their highs.

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China’s central bank buys 21 tonnes of gold, its biggest month in three years

Wed, 07 Oct 2026 14:31:00 GMT

Beijing stepped up bullion purchases as prices fell and its foreign exchange reserves shrank.

China’s central bank bought 21 tonnes of gold in September, its largest monthly purchase in three years and the biggest since September 2023, when reserves rose by 24 tonnes. The People’s Bank of China lifted its holdings to 77.47 million fine troy ounces from 76.73 million at the end of August. That is an increase of 740,000 ounces, taking reserves to roughly 2,409.59 tonnes.

The purchase extended the buying streak to a twenty-third consecutive month. China Daily Asia reported it as the biggest monthly gold reserve increase in three years. One account recorded holdings hitting a record high for the month. The same data release showed China’s foreign exchange reserves shrinking by $38.1 billion, a larger fall than expected. Kitco reported the purchase as announced by the central bank on Wednesday, and noted it was the largest monthly addition since the autumn of three years earlier.

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Dalio warns of a US debt crisis within three years

Tue, 06 Oct 2026 21:24:00 GMT

The Bridgewater founder said interest costs are crowding out other spending and that China and Japan may pull back from US Treasuries, days after the Treasury secretary told investors the debt path would soon improve.

Ray Dalio said the United States could face a debt crisis within three years. He set out the arithmetic behind the warning: annual federal revenue of about $5.5 trillion against spending of about $7.5 trillion, leaving a fiscal deficit of nearly $2 trillion. The federal government now spends roughly $1 trillion each year on interest.

Dalio said soaring interest payments on the national debt are squeezing out other spending, and that he sees cracks in other credit markets. He also warned that China and Japan may pull back from Treasuries, cutting their demand for US government debt. In the same comments he flagged risks around an AI bubble.

Why it matters to investors, and what to watch: on the site.

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OPEC+ keeps November output targets steady through the Iran war

Tue, 06 Oct 2026 21:24:00 GMT

Seven core producers agreed at a virtual meeting on Sunday to leave November production unchanged, leaving about 2 million barrels a day of cuts in place while Gulf supply is disrupted.

OPEC+ agreed to keep November oil output targets steady at a meeting on Sunday. OPEC said so in a statement issued after a virtual meeting with participating countries, with Saudi Arabia among the producers holding targets unchanged. The core members involved include Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq.

The group left about 2 million barrels a day of output cuts in place, covering most of the restraint it has been carrying. The seven countries will hold their next meeting on Nov. 1, and monthly meetings are to continue while they monitor market conditions.

The decision was taken against the backdrop of the US-Iran war. Saudi Arabia, whose oil pipeline was hit by missiles, was among the nations maintaining output targets.

Why it matters to investors, and what to watch: on the site.

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Treasury yields retreat from a 24-year high as oil slips below $100

Tue, 06 Oct 2026 21:24:00 GMT

US bond yields fell back from their highest levels since 2002 after crude dropped under $100 a barrel and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent restated his pledges on the debt.

US bond yields fell from their highest levels since 2002 as oil prices retreated below $100 a barrel and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted on his debt commitments. The Treasury selloff eased and yields fell amid the declining oil prices. The 10-year Treasury yield softened from a 24-year high.

The move came after a stretch in which high government debt had been adding fuel to a global bond market selloff. One account attributed the run-up in yields to deficit spending and increasing corporate debt supply, and cited Congressional Budget Office figures showing net public debt rising from 101% of GDP this year.

The retreat followed rather than reversed the trend: the 10-year yield had reached a 24-year high before easing, and the Bloomberg account dates the peak level to 2002.

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Treasury yields hold near two-decade highs as the curve steepens

Tue, 06 Oct 2026 14:34:00 GMT

A global bond selloff has pushed long-dated US yields to their highest level in about twenty years, and equities have so far looked through it.

US Treasury yields rose again at the start of the week, with mid-dated and long-dated maturities outpacing shorter ones and steepening the yield curve. One account put the 10-year yield at 5.28% as the selloff deepened. Another described the 10-year as softening from a 24-year high, which suggests the move has been choppy rather than one-directional. US equity indexes were mixed while yields traded at their highest in two decades.

The Wall Street Journal dated the turn in the market to Sept. 29, when New York Fed President John Williams suggested that an October rate increase was likely. The newspaper described the episode as a bond selloff marked by a steepening yield curve rather than a parallel shift. The 30-year rate led the rise on the day.

The distinction matters for what is being priced. A steepening led by the long end points to term premium and supply rather than the policy rate alone, while the catalyst identified by the Journal was a comment about the near-term policy path. Both forces are in the market at once.

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Central bankers say gold keeps its reserve role even with bond yields at multi-decade highs

Mon, 05 Oct 2026 21:35:00 GMT

At the LBMA conference, reserve managers argued the case for diversifying into gold survives a 10-year Treasury yield holding above 5 per cent.

Gold retains key reserve status despite surging bond yields, senior central bankers said on Monday. Gold remains a vital reserve asset because of central bank demand and geopolitical risks, according to the officials quoted. Speaking at the LBMA gathering, Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel said “the case for further diversification into gold remains significant”, and linked reserve composition to geopolitical risk.

Altimari said the gold market had undergone a structural shift since 2022, driven by central-bank purchases in emerging economies. The scale of that shift is now visible in the stock of reserves: gold makes up 27 per cent of global central bank reserves by value, against 22 per cent for US Treasuries.

The conference framing was that central banks are not done with gold, with geopolitical risk reshaping reserve portfolios. Nagel said geopolitical risks are likely to continue to shape reserve decisions, and the officials quoted tied gold’s standing to that risk as much as to central bank demand itself.

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OPEC+ core seven keep November output targets unchanged

Mon, 05 Oct 2026 14:36:00 GMT

The group left quotas where they are at a virtual meeting on Sunday, with the Iran war already restricting barrels.

The seven OPEC+ countries that set the group’s voluntary output adjustments agreed to keep November targets steady at a virtual meeting on Sunday, in line with market expectations. The seven are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. The decision was agreed in principle according to sources cited before the statement landed. AP described the outcome as major oil exporters agreeing to keep production steady in November.

The group still has about 2 million barrels a day of output cuts in place. Gulf production is lagging the targets already set, and the Iran war continues to weigh on output from major OPEC producers. The hold was taken amid Middle East tensions rather than in a calm market. One account of the statement notes that the same seven had set their course at an earlier virtual meeting, in August, so the monthly cadence is now the mechanism rather than the news.

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Treasury yields at a 32-year high push yield curve control back into print

Mon, 05 Oct 2026 14:36:00 GMT

The long end is repricing fast enough that Washington’s unconventional options are being discussed as live choices.

US Treasury yields reached a 32-year high as allied holders sold. The benchmark ten-year yield then eased slightly, falling two basis points to 5.25% as Asian markets traded. It was a volatile week for both ten-year and thirty-year yields, volatile enough for the question to be put as whether there is blood in the streets yet.

The move travelled. Nigerian Eurobonds were dumped as US yields hit what one account describes as a 24-year high rather than a 32-year one, with oil-linked issuers facing the heaviest selling. High-yield spreads widened by roughly 39 basis points over the week to around 312 basis points, and investment grade loosened as well, even though equities stayed resilient.

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OPEC+ leaves November output targets unchanged

Sun, 04 Oct 2026 21:25:00 GMT

Seven producers agreed at an online meeting on Sunday to hold quotas steady for a second month while the war with Iran keeps barrels off the market.

Seven OPEC+ producers agreed to keep their November crude output targets unchanged, the group said after a meeting held online on Sunday. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman took part in the virtual session. Early reporting, citing sources, described the outcome as an agreement in principle before the group confirmed it. Algeria’s state minister and minister of hydrocarbons, Mohamed Arkab, joined by videoconference and attended a series of OPEC+ ministerial meetings the same day. The statement announcing the decision was carried by Xinhua.

It is the second month running that the group has held output steady. About 2 million barrels per day of cuts covering most members remain in place. The seven said they would meet again on November 1 to review market conditions and make further decisions. Several accounts of the meeting described the targets as unchanged rather than merely rolled over, and said the alliance was holding quotas firm in what it called a key November move.

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Scope holds the US at AA- and warns debt could reach 160% of GDP

Sun, 04 Oct 2026 14:23:00 GMT

The rating agency kept a stable outlook but said surging interest costs leave the fiscal path increasingly exposed to the bond market.

Scope Ratings has maintained the US sovereign rating at AA- with a stable outlook while warning that rising interest costs and debt-limit disputes are turning the debt path riskier. The agency said US debt could reach 160% of GDP within a decade. It described the path as leaving the country increasingly exposed. Debt-servicing costs are expected to drive further fiscal deterioration, the agency said, even when primary deficits, which exclude interest payments, are set aside.

Scope sits well below its larger peers on the United States. It last lowered the country during the 2025 debt-ceiling impasse and now scores it two steps below Moody’s, Fitch and S&P Global Ratings.

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Scope keeps the US at AA- and warns debt could reach 160% of GDP

Sat, 03 Oct 2026 21:28:00 GMT

The agency held its rating with a stable outlook while flagging surging interest costs and another debt-limit fight after the midterms.

Scope Ratings maintained its sovereign rating on the United States at AA- with a stable outlook, while warning about rising interest costs and debt-limit disputes, UA.News reported. Yahoo Finance reported the agency’s central projection: US debt could reach 160% of GDP within a decade. Investing.com’s India edition carried the same 160% projection. NDTV Profit reported the agency’s conclusion that the US debt path leaves the country “increasingly exposed”.

Fortune reported Scope’s language on the political mechanics, quoting the agency as saying that on the debt limit “the post-midterm political landscape could increase the scope for prolonged partisan standoffs”, with a further reference to repeated debt-ceiling episodes in text that the excerpt cuts off. Yahoo Finance reported that Scope last downgraded the country during the 2025 debt-ceiling impasse and currently rates it two levels below Moody’s Ratings and Fitch Ratings. NDTV Profit reported the same history and added S&P Global Ratings to the comparison, putting Scope two steps below all three.

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Long bond yields reach multi-decade highs as the selloff spreads

Sat, 03 Oct 2026 14:25:00 GMT

Treasury, European and Japanese government bond yields all climbed, and the US 30-year mortgage rate posted its largest weekly rise in four years.

US Treasury daily par yield curve data shows the 10-year yield rising from 4.78% on September 4 to 5.29% on September 30. Tekedia reported the global bond rout deepening with the US 10-year hitting 5.34%. A weekly market summary described yields across short and long tenors as anchored near 20-year highs after weeks of heavy selling. BusinessToday Malaysia reported Treasury yields easing only after the 10-year hit its highest level since 2002. AllianceBernstein wrote that yields on long bonds have risen to multi-decade levels.

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BIS says 55% of AI funding comes from other AI firms

Fri, 02 Oct 2026 21:24:00 GMT

A new bulletin maps a financing loop in which suppliers often bankroll their own customers.

A new Bank for International Settlements bulletin finds that 55.2 percent of AI funding comes from other AI firms, mapping what Crypto Briefing described as a tightly looped financing web in which suppliers often bankroll their own customers. MarketScreener summarised the same work as AI being 55 percent financed in a closed loop, and said BIS economists had taken up the question directly.

The BIS warned of potential macroeconomic risks stemming from circular relationships among AI companies. It also warned that the US pace of investment could end in an “investment bust”.

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Global bond rout lifts the US 10-year yield to 5.34%

Fri, 02 Oct 2026 21:24:00 GMT

Long-dated yields reached their highest levels since before the global financial crisis as investors repriced sovereign debt loads.

The US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.34 percent as global bond yields surged. News.com.au described a global bond meltdown, with yields at their highest levels since before the global financial crisis and $60 billion wiped off Australia’s ASX.

The selloff is being read as a debt story rather than a growth story. The Wall Street Journal reported that high government debt is adding fuel to the global bond market selloff. Pressure has been greater on government bonds in countries with high debt levels.

Currency markets moved with it. The dollar strengthened on Thursday as investors shifted, according to Tekedia. Reuters reported that the euro was set for its biggest weekly fall in months against the dollar as France’s fiscal trajectory weighed on sentiment.

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Bond Rout Lifts the 10-Year Treasury Yield to a 24-Year High

Fri, 02 Oct 2026 14:31:00 GMT

US long-term yields reached levels last seen in 2002 before snapping back, and the average 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 7.28 per cent.

US bond yields hit their highest level since 2002 this week, with the move concentrated at the long end. One account dated the 10-year yield’s peak as the highest since 2007, and noted that Wednesday’s one-day move in the 10-year was its largest since April 2025, when a tariff announcement rattled global markets. Another described bond markets taking a drubbing again as 10-year Treasury yields reached their highest since 2002.

The yield then reversed. Bonds snapped back as investors stepped in after the 10-year hit a 24-year high, with a closely watched part of the curve measuring the gap between two-year and 10-year yields flattening a little. Intraday figures showed the US 10-year settling at 5.24 per cent after rising to 5.34 per cent during the session. The same report described investors fleeing Treasuries and gilts together.

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