2024 "Geoeconomic" Portfolio

This model addresses the challenges of investing in a changing world.

2021 "Endgame" Portfolios

The difference between us and everyone else is we were well prepared for this to happen.

2019 "Pivot" Portfolios

These portfolios were designed to address unpriceable risk and to answer the question, "What then?"

1981 "Classic" Portfolios

These models are based on the original late-1980s Yale investment strategy.

Investing in a Changing World

What is different this time is the globalization of the supply chain . . . is now unraveling at the same time the forty-year era of declining interest rates from 1981 to 2021 appears to be over.

Finding a Stock to Trade

When it comes to trading, just go to where the action is.

Historical Risk Profile

This metric helps us determine when to engage in active management and when to invest passively. The four quadrants also correspond to Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis.

S&P 500 Index Volatility Deciles

It is a crude but robust measurement of risk relative to previous episodes.

Sector SPDR and Index Rotation

Tracking the performance of all eleven Select Sector SPDRs against the benchmark S&P 500 Index provides us with information that can be used to detect rotation of these sectors.

OEX/NDX Objective Sentiment Survey

We count up the number of buy and sell signals for each index and plot the data.