1981 "Classic" Portfolios

These models are based on the original late-1980s Yale investment strategy.

Investing in a Changing World

What is different this time is the globalization of the supply chain . . . is now unraveling at the same time the forty-year era of declining interest rates from 1981 to 2021 appears to be over.

Finding a Stock to Trade

When it comes to trading, just go to where the action is.

Historical Risk Profile

This metric helps us determine when to engage in active management and when to invest passively. The four quadrants also correspond to Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis.

S&P 500 Index Volatility Deciles

It is a crude but robust measurement of risk relative to previous episodes.

Sector SPDR and Index Rotation

Tracking the performance of all eleven Select Sector SPDRs against the benchmark S&P 500 Index provides us with information that can be used to detect rotation of these sectors.

OEX/NDX Objective Sentiment Survey

We count up the number of buy and sell signals for each index and plot the data.

NAAIM+ Sentiment Survey

Helene Meisler discussed sources of sentiment data and pointed to the NAAIM Exposure Index as a good source.

Welcome to the B.S. Study Club

Your journey to seeing markets differently starts now.

High Returns-Low Risk Paradox

It never occurred to me that the high return-low risk phenomenon was a paradox, yet most investors and professionals believe the relationship to be high return-high risk.