Clarity in Chaos

See patterns others miss. Harness volatility others fear.

What is the Black Swan Study Club?

The Black Swan Study Club provides independent, forward-thinking financial research designed for active investors who seek to anticipate market shifts rather than react to them. In a financial landscape dominated by noise, sensationalism, and conventional wisdom, our research identifies overlooked risks and undiscovered opportunities that exist beyond mainstream narratives.

This club has studied all the B.S., and that is our edge. We cut through the noise, challenge assumptions, and focus on the real forces shaping markets, from macro trends to quantitative signals, market anomalies, subtle sentiment shifts, and yes, events leading up to the "black swan."

We evaluate consensus views, then apply a proven hybrid analytical framework to detect emerging patterns and potential market dislocations before they become widely recognized. Our methodology combines quantitative and behavioral finance insights with geoeconomic analysis to uncover asymmetric investment opportunities where potential rewards significantly outweigh identifiable risks.

Members of our community gain access to contrarian perspectives grounded in empirical evidence rather than speculation or hype, enabling them to position their portfolios ahead of significant market transitions. We serve investors who understand that sustainable outperformance requires both disciplined risk management and the intellectual agility to challenge prevailing market assumptions.

If you're not quite ready to step forward, visit our subreddit r/activeinvestormag for curated market insights and more.

Join on your terms

Come for a month, or stay for a while. Perfect for active investors who value independence and strategic insights on demand. Sign-up and cancellation is 100% self-serve. $50/month.

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Why Join?

Advanced Market Insights

Reality-based, data-driven analysis that keeps you ahead of market movements. No FOMO. No YOLO. Just rigorous methodology.

Community of Independent Thinkers

Engage with serious, self-directed investors who challenge conventional wisdom and share sophisticated perspectives.

Alpha Generation Strategies

Actionable frameworks for stock selection, asset allocation, and risk management that transcend mainstream financial commentary.

What You Get

Investment Intelligence

Stock ideas and portfolio strategies based on quantitative and discretionary insights optimized for risk-adjusted returns in under varied market conditions.

Exclusive Research

Proprietary analysis of market anomalies, investor sentiment, and market metrics you won't find in mainstream outlets.

Interactive Learning

Live discussions and Q&A sessions with real-time analysis of emerging risks and opportunities via Voxer (iOS, Android, and browser).

Who This Is For

Self-Directed Investors

Investors who want to actively manage risk and seek empirically-validated approaches to asset allocation.

Evidence-Based Thinkers

Anyone who demands both qualitative context and quantitative rigor behind every investment thesis.

Financial Contrarians

Skeptics of mainstream narratives who recognize that authentic alpha requires independent analysis and disciplined execution.

About Us

The key to solving investment challenges lies in the approach. Teresa Lo, the Founder, Chief Investment Strategist, and Real-time Discussion Host, believes in the power of first-principles thinking. With her own money on the line, she focuses on and solves a set of problems that matter to active investors managing their own money.

A Conversation with Teresa Lo

Read A Conversation with Teresa Lo, where she sat down with fellow investor and author Leslie N. Masonson. The interview is featured in the December 2023 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine.

Teresa has dedicated her career to buy-side macroeconomic, technical, and quantitative strategies—not theories or sales pitches. She’s traded through market booms and crashes, and when it mattered, her strategies delivered results.

By quantifying insights about volatility and investor sentiment gained from a long trading career, she developed strategies and solutions grounded in behavioral and quantitative finance, including a different approach to asset class selection and asset allocation that adapts to the market's ever-changing nature.

Come See What You’ve Been Missing

Markets are chaotic, but within that chaos lies opportunity—if you know where to look. The Black Swan Study Club isn’t just another trading group; it’s a high-level mastermind for successful independent investors.

If you're ready to see the unseen, navigate uncertainty, and seize opportunity from chaos, join us today. The edge you need is here—will you take it?

Very early in my career I met an amazing trader, Teresa Lo. She's based in Vancouver … Well, I learned a few things from her but one was to think about investing as an IF THEN ELSE scenario, so IF volume or IF valuations, THEN I will buy/sell, and ELSE is basically the exit if things don’t go your way. It’s very simple, but it’s very powerful.

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The Method

Teresa's approach to financial markets is distinct and deeply pragmatic. Grounded in extensive real-world trading experience we seek to understand and focus on the real forces shaping markets.

Her methodology synthesizes behavioral and quantitative finance. By quantifying insights about volatility and investor sentiment gained from a long trading career, Teresa developed adaptive strategies designed to navigate the market's ever-changing nature. As a result, her asset allocation strategy never relied on MPT, and instead focused on volatility-based risk management, applying lessons like Nobel laureate Robert Merton's later realization that portfolios should target stable volatility. Her focus on geoeconomic forces led her to pivot away from bonds before their 2022 decline.

Key principles she follows and teaches include patience and the discipline of separating the signal from the setup. Rather than reacting impulsively to market information, the emphasizes is on having a defined reason ("setup") to act and waiting for the right conditions or catalyst, a skill that is very powerful despite its simplicity. This patient, disciplined approach is combined with data-driven signals and analytical tools (like the AiM for TradeStation) that incorporate insights from technical analysis pioneers like Justin Mamis and Stan Weinstein to identify market sentiment shifts.

Through the Black Swan Study Club, Teresa provides reality-based, data-driven analysis, helping investors gain advanced market insights, understand market anomalies, manage risk effectively based on real volatility, and ultimately, see the patterns others miss and seize opportunity from chaos. Her adaptive strategies protected investors and unlocked opportunities, delivering results when traditional approaches collapsed, proving the power of an approach grounded in understanding, experience, and adaptation to real-world volatility.

Key Aspects

A belief that focus on first-principles thinking to deeply understand the market's real forces is key to unlocking solutions. As Perry Merhling wrote about Fischer Black, "if a problem does not yield to known methods, that doesn’t mean we need more sophisticated methods, indeed probably just the opposite. Usually problems are hard not because our technique is deficient but because our understanding is deficient."

  • The synthesis of behavioral and quantitative finance, recognizing that markets are influenced by elements like investor sentiment and "animal spirits" which rigid models miss.
  • A pragmatic focus on volatility-based risk management rather than fixed asset allocations, adapting to the market's ever-changing nature. This includes applying lessons learned, like targeting stable volatility.
  • The practical discipline of separating the signal from the setup, emphasizing patience and acting only when there's a defined reason for the trade, a technique that is very powerful.
  • Utilizing data-driven signals and tools that incorporate insights from market veterans to understand sentiment shifts.

Teresa's approach isn't just theoretical; it has been stress-tested through market booms and crashes and delivered results when traditional methods faltered. This ability to see the patterns others miss and seize opportunity from chaos is a significant differentiator.

It's this blend of deep understanding, practical experience, adaptation, and a focus on real-world market dynamics (including quantifying sentiment and volatility) that makes her approach so compelling and fruitful.

How Traditional Strategies Left Investors Stranded

Most investors rely on financial advisors using outdated models and rigid strategies. Traditional portfolio construction, based on Harry Markowitz’s Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), assumes that stocks and bonds move in opposite directions—so combining them should stabilize risk.

That assumption failed in 2022 when rising inflation and interest rates caused both stocks and bonds to plummet simultaneously. Investors who followed conventional asset allocation models suffered unprecedented losses, while outdated risk assessments failed to prepare them for real-world volatility.

Why Your Portfolio Isn’t Working for You

Most investment firms prioritize sales over performance. Their strategies rely on software that can’t adapt to modern markets and sell-side research designed to serve the firm’s interests—not yours.

Risk assessments, like KYC questionnaires, are more about legal protection than actual risk management. Research confirms these assessments often misrepresent clients' actual risk tolerance, leading to misaligned portfolios that fail under stress (Grable et al., 2020; Linciano & Soccorso, 2012).

While Markets Gyrated, Our Strategy Adapted

We never relied on MPT. Our strategies evolved from real trading experience, focusing on volatility-based risk management instead of rigid asset allocations.

Nobel laureate Robert Merton—who famously miscalculated risk at LTCM—later realized that portfolios should target stable volatility, not fixed allocations. We applied that lesson early, pivoting away from bonds in 2019 and completely exiting by 2021, shielding our capital while others suffered.

Recognizing the macroeconomic shifts early, we began to pivot away from bonds in 2019 based on our own insights. By the end of 2021, our Endgame models contained no bonds, shielding us from the unprecedented losses that plagued traditional portfolios. Our macroeconomic analysis, commitment to adaptive strategies and real-time risk assessment protected our investments and unlocked opportunities — delivering results when traditional strategies collapsed.

AiM for TradeStation

For members looking to enhance their charts with analytics, we offer an exclusive suite of TradeStation indicator and paintbar studies for an additional fee.

AiM for TradeStation

Precision Trading Without the Guesswork

Gain a decisive edge with our suite of custom TradeStation studies, designed to cut through market noise and provide objective, systematic trading signals.

No man is better than a machine, and no machine is better than a man with a machine.

The AiM for TradeStation suite of tools help active investors visualize trends, pinpoint entry and exit points, and optimize position sizing—all without discretionary guesswork.

  • SmarterStops & SwingStops – Trail stops intelligently and identify high-probability entry points within trends.
  • TradeSize Indicator – Dynamically adjust position sizes based on market volatility for disciplined risk management.
  • Reward-to-Risk Ratio (RRR) – Quantify risk vs. reward before entering a trade, ensuring the odds are in your favor.
  • Four-Stage Trend Analysis (HRP) – Identify market sentiment shifts using insights from Justin Mamis and Stan Weinstein.

Compatible with both charts and RadarScreen, these studies provide data-driven signals to help you navigate the market with confidence.

This website is for informational and educational purposes only.
It does not constitute financial advice, recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities.
All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.