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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
The Treasury Secretary said the Fed should not raise rates over an energy shock, while the Chicago Fed president said price pressures have spread well beyond oil.
Same thread today
21Hong Kong lifts its 2026 growth forecast to 4.8% as the AI boom powers trade
The Treasury Secretary publicly placed responsibility for the delay on Howard Lutnick’s department, adding to pressure on the Commerce Secretary over chip export controls.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed a strike on a US early-warning radar and new mine blasts in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US military said the attack failed.
The threat comes in the middle of a formal review of the USMCA trade pact and separate US-Mexico tariff talks.
The pact was signed in Istanbul on Friday, but neither government has released details of what it commits the two countries to do.
The National Economic Council director called the report ‘not true’ after a report said he would depart in the coming weeks.
The New Hampshire Democrat is seeking records on a deal for a prison that CoreCivic had earlier offered to the state for $75 million.
Share orders from investors in China and Hong Kong have been rebuffed, while Dario Amodei told Jamie Dimon he hopes the listing will ‘underpromise and overdeliver’.
The prediction-market company is in talks to raise money weeks after a $40 billion round, as it ends its advisory contract with the president’s eldest son.
The president said in a radio interview that he is considering a military operation in Cuba before his term ends in 2029.
Repayments outpaced new borrowing despite greater policy support, missing analysts’ forecasts for modest loan growth.
The Dallas Fed president called for changes to how the Fed lends into markets as investors raise bets on a larger rate rise in December.
The neocloud’s revenue jumped 571% in the quarter, but delays at a Microsoft-linked campus in New Jersey pushed sales into 2027 while its spending plans grew.
Williams said the Fed still has work to do after a hot October inflation reading, steadying two-year yields while gold slid on rising bets on tighter policy.
The Senate Banking Committee wants Howard Lutnick and Jensen Huang to answer questions next month about national security concerns tied to the Nvidia affair, and the commerce secretary has said yes.
Tokyo vowed action as the currency crossed the threshold, while disclosure of a limited US purchase alongside Japan’s July intervention raised doubts about how much Washington will help.
Israel’s spy chief met CIA Director John Ratcliffe and was expected to see envoy Steve Witkoff, while Trump has so far favored economic pressure over renewed strikes.
The recovery covers a fraction of what was taken from the world’s largest crypto exchange last month, as the Justice Department moves against North Korea’s crypto theft operations.
Procurement records show a pipeline of Chinese data centres built on Nvidia hardware, and analysts say the scandal makes tighter US chip curbs more likely.
Microsoft said the multihour disruption was not a cyber-security incident, but its early fixes failed as the outage hit finance, shipping and other users worldwide.
The government raised its full-year forecast for the second time in months after third-quarter growth of 5.2%, though a banker warns the expansion is concentrated in a few AI-led sectors.
The write-down on power equipment for US data centres feeds a quarterly loss and raises questions about how far natural gas will power the AI build-out.
Elon Musk’s company says an Arizona supercompute campus will cost about $50 billion, while a planned data centre and power plant at Starbase faces scrutiny in Texas.
The president wants extra Pentagon money on top of his base defense request, and Senate Republicans are considering a defense-only bill before the new Congress arrives.
4,858 items read
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
Seven of the eleven lazy portfolios held cash: from 1% to 13%.
As of November 6, 2026, they range from 7.6% to 11.6% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%, up to 50%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
10.4%
4%
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
10.9%
8%
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
11.3%
12%
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
11.6%
13%
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
9.3%
None
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
10.1%
1%
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
9.1%
None
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
10.4%
4%
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
10.5%
5%
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
7.6%
None
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
9.4%
None
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
