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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
Independent directors at the two companies will study a combination that Musk says has a lot to offer, and that would be the biggest merger on record.
The asset manager’s chief made the case for a rapid AI buildout as a poll shows most Americans oppose more data centres and finance leaders argue over a bubble.
Consumer prices rose faster than expected, to an 11-month high, a week before a Budget in which the chancellor has already ruled out a higher capital gains tax.
Washington’s envoy presented an updated peace proposal in St Petersburg, while Putin floated a meeting with Trump in China and offered help on Iran.
At a rally in Greenville, the president and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also announced a Sibelco plant worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
Chief Economist Philip Lane argued that backstops in euros for foreign central banks could support sovereign bond markets and help the ECB hit its inflation target.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Comptroller Jonathan Gould called the rule a milestone, while industry groups press the Treasury on the parts of the law still to be written.
The lawsuit argues the White House exceeded its authority by using a provision of the Smoot-Hawley Act that no president had used in 96 years.
More than 24 million barrels a day left the region through Hormuz and other routes in the week to 18 October, but attacks on ships and soaring freight costs kept crude rising.
The president’s super PAC spent more than $200 million in September alone, and a late $80 million donation is now flowing to Democrats.
Beijing has put draft export controls on 23 AI-related technologies out for consultation, including open-weight models and AI agents, as it protests Washington’s DeepSeek ban.
A warning from Deputy Governor Hauser lifted the Australian dollar and reopened a rate decision that bond traders had begun to discount.
2,005 items read
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 12, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.8% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.6%
0%
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.9%
0%
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.4%
0%
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.8%
0%
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
6.9%
0%
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.7%
0%
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
0%
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.9%
0%
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.9%
0%
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
7.1%
0%
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.7%
0%
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
