For Active Investors.
S&P 500, 1927 to 2026S&P 500, 1977 to 2026
AiM Weekly is a free newsletter about managing risk through the whole market cycle. Posts range from cash levels and position sizing to market sentiment, macroeconomics and political economy, and more.
Get AiM Weekly, free.
Your email address, and your first name if you like. The first issue arrives on Saturday. Unsubscribe any time. Privacy
Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
The defeated candidate failed to surrender his passports, police said, while his party broke with him and accepted Lula’s victory.
Iran’s navy reported the mine strike, and US Central Command called an IRGC commander’s claim of a US withdrawal false.
Ambassador Mike Waltz and Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla clashed on the General Assembly floor as members prepared to vote on the annual resolution against the embargo.
Exit polls gave Eisenkot’s bloc 52 to 53 seats and Netanyahu’s 50 after the highest turnout since 1973, pointing to a possible minority government backed by Arab parties.
Trade Representative Jamieson Greer offered Beijing a reprieve on port fees and told Brussels that a European Investment Bank loan to Airbus puts the aircraft truce at risk.
The Conference Board’s index beat forecasts by a wide margin, while the University of Michigan’s sentiment gauge stayed near record lows.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright was set to announce the financing at an Illinois nuclear plant that will supply power to Alphabet.
Oracle expanded its Nvidia supply deal without disclosing its value and said it will be the first hyperscaler to offer Google’s TPU outside Google.
PNC said it is factoring in capital rules that are “just around the corner” as it reviews its AOCI holdings, as unrealized losses threaten buybacks.
Europe’s stock markets dipped on the results but recovered as other earnings and lower oil lifted sentiment ahead of three central bank decisions.
The rating agency said demand for AI infrastructure financing is expanding private credit’s reach, as stress in CoreWeave’s debt sharpens investor concern.
The US envoy discussed potential deals with Putin and proposed restoring Russian oil and gas flows through Ukraine, a plan that angered Budanov.
The surprise result derailed about $6 billion of planned share sales, while Trump echoed Flávio Bolsonaro’s fraud claims without citing evidence.
Mojtaba Khamenei met his security chief after talks with Mecca pact countries, according to Iranian state media, while Brent slipped to $114.93.
Moody’s left France’s rating unchanged with a negative outlook, easing pressure on French debt even as protests and a bond selloff weigh on households.
A three-year high in the Bank of Japan’s trend inflation measure and a 3.7% rise in services prices add to the case for another rate rise.
The Nordic leaders held what they called a frank and substantive call with Putin in consultation with Ukraine, a week after meeting Witkoff and Zelenskiy in Oslo.
The chipmaker is investing in another of its own customers, deepening an AI partnership built around Meta’s Muse agents.
Bullion eased ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, while central-bank buying and Chinese household demand offered support near the round-number level.
The ECB’s quarterly lending survey points to rate rises cooling activity, with mortgage demand falling and more loan applications rejected.
The Tehran-created Persian Gulf Strait Authority singled out the South Korean shipping company in a month of record attacks on merchant ships.
China’s central bank paired a large net cash injection through reverse repos with a new swap facility for non-bank investors facing large redemptions.
The defeat removes a Balkan strongman who courted Trump’s family and allies and balanced Serbia between Russia and the West.
The partial tariff relief follows lobbying by a Republican senator in Maine, while new 50% duties are still due to take effect on October 30.
3,776 items read
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 23, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.7% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.5%
0%
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.8%
0%
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.3%
0%
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.7%
0%
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
7.1%
0%
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.6%
0%
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
0%
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.9%
0%
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.9%
0%
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
7.0%
0%
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.6%
0%
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
