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AiM Weekly is a free newsletter about managing risk through the whole market cycle. Posts range from cash levels and position sizing to market sentiment, macroeconomics and political economy, and more.
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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
The Treasury reported a shortfall 12% larger than the year before, and interest costs are taking a growing share of the economy as yields rise.
The White House’s top economic adviser dismissed critical polls on Monday, days after consumer prices posted their largest monthly rise since April.
The Revolutionary Guards said the ships used routes Tehran considers illegal, as US crude jumped and Washington maintained that Gulf flows were recovering.
The Defence Secretary met the Israeli prime minister at an air base in southern Israel, a day after Trump endorsed Netanyahu and as talk of renewed strikes on Iran grows.
Wage growth excluding bonuses rose to 3.7% in the three months to August, and sterling gained as traders priced a rate increase next month.
Trump’s envoys are meeting Ukraine’s president and European leaders in Norway, as Rubio tries to reassure Kyiv that Washington has not turned against it.
The Reuters report lands as chip stocks recover from a nine-day slide and as Washington argues over how tightly to police AI technology bound for China.
The bank’s move brings tokenised dollar deposits onto a public blockchain just as Washington’s stablecoin rulebook nears its effective date.
Reuters reports that OpenAI is hurrying investor commitments ahead of its rival’s flotation, at a time when market jitters have pushed other AI listings back.
Wall Street executives raised safety concerns with the head of the Public Investment Fund before the in-person gathering was called off.
Businesses blamed energy prices and new tariffs for higher expected inflation, though some economists say softer consumer prices argue for a hold.
Both contractors credited rising US and allied military spending, even as defence shares have retreated and Congress argues over new Pentagon money.
1,947 items read
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 12, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.8% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.6%
0%
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.9%
0%
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.4%
0%
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.8%
0%
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
6.9%
0%
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.7%
0%
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
0%
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.9%
0%
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.9%
0%
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
7.1%
0%
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.7%
0%
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
