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AiM Weekly is a free newsletter about managing risk through the whole market cycle. Posts range from cash levels and position sizing to market sentiment, macroeconomics and political economy, and more.
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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
Austan Goolsbee called September’s inflation reading discouraging and Beth Hammack said rates may have to go higher, against a market that has nearly written the move off.
Katie Zacharia was pushed out on Friday, and reports that Susie Wiles could be replaced drew a flat denial from the president.
The secretary of state says the waiver is a pause to analyse the economic impact, while House Republicans threaten defence money over it.
Iran’s foreign minister wants conditions met and guarantees against new attacks; the US war secretary answers with an ultimatum.
At a CBS News town hall the vice-president defended the war, the economy and the administration’s visa rhetoric.
China’s commerce ministry has proposed controls on 12 solar manufacturing technologies, part of a draft list of 40.
A survey of economists points to productivity gains from artificial intelligence, while the Fund warns the benefits are concentrated and the labour effects are already visible.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have raised resuming Russian gas transit through Ukraine in peace talks, drawing an objection from Berlin.
The former head of the government’s cost-cutting effort says savings alone cannot fix the national debt, and calls his own experiment a failure.
Default protection on the AI cloud company’s debt priced at distressed levels, and bondholders of larger AI borrowers took losses too.
Pan Gongsheng told the IMF’s steering committee he supports closer surveillance of fiscal and spillover risks, while pledging wider access to China’s markets.
Marches drew hundreds of thousands and turned destructive, days before a budget moment that commentators are calling make or break.
1,414 items read
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 12, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.8% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.6%
0%
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.9%
0%
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.4%
0%
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.8%
0%
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
6.9%
0%
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.7%
0%
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
0%
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.9%
0%
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.9%
0%
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
7.1%
0%
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.7%
0%
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
