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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
US officials called Monday’s limited strikes near the Strait of Hormuz defensive, oil rebounded from a steep selloff, and both sides signalled that a deal remains possible but distant.
Working-level negotiations on 10 to 11 November will cover post-war security, de-escalation and humanitarian issues, restarting a process suspended by the war in Iran.
Tariff refunds and a lower tax rate flattered earnings, while memory-chip costs and supply limits on the $2,000 foldable weigh on the holiday-quarter outlook.
US, Russian and Chinese officials are discussing a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the APEC summit in China, though Beijing has not confirmed it.
Official buying ran at its fastest pace since 2024 and most of it was undisclosed, while bar and coin demand fell with prices well below their record.
The bank’s oil team says only a lasting US-Iran agreement would quickly remove the war risk premium, though reports of the note differ on its 2027 average.
The central bank’s move ended the onshore yuan’s longest winning streak in three decades and pushed the currency lower on Tuesday.
Australia’s central bank lifted rates to the highest level since 2008 after revising up its inflation outlook, while major peers stayed on hold.
Beijing is now restricting the supply of new shares, while the central bank governor pledges more action after earlier support measures failed to put a floor under prices.
The company reported $2.31 billion in third-quarter revenue and guided above estimates, but investors questioned whether it can sustain the pace.
October’s reading is above the Swiss National Bank’s own forecast and the midpoint of its target range for the first time since August 2024.
2,103 items read
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 30, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.9% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.5%
None
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.8%
None
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.3%
None
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.6%
None
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
7.1%
None
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.5%
None
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
None
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.8%
None
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.8%
None
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
6.9%
None
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.9%
None
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
