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AiM Weekly is a free newsletter about managing risk through the whole market cycle. Posts range from cash levels and position sizing to market sentiment, macroeconomics and political economy, and more.
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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
The Dow fell 1,800 points and the Nasdaq 5.5% in the worst US rout since 2020, and the damage reached Asian stocks, tycoons’ fortunes and currencies.
The defense secretary released a defiant video defending the Iran war as lawmakers from both parties moved toward a vote to impeach him as soon as next week.
Prospective backers say the AI developer may need a bigger discount, and possibly a later date, after a market rout and the election result hit technology stocks.
The crypto venture linked to the president’s family said it will buy back its governance token, with initial funding that may come from fees on its USD1 stablecoin reserves.
A senior Iranian official described the offer as Iranian officials reviewed mediators’ proposals and Trump said a decision on resuming all-out war would come soon.
John Williams described a remarkably resilient economy and a stable labor market while saying the Fed should collect more information before setting its next move.
The first lady gathered Russian and Ukrainian officials at the White House following a local ceasefire, and the president then met Putin’s special envoy.
October payrolls far outpaced September’s weak gain and, by some readings, strengthen the case for further Federal Reserve rate increases.
The secretary of state dismissed reports that he was preparing to leave the administration ahead of a possible 2028 bid, and the White House also denied he would go.
Precious metals extended a post-election rally, with silver near $53, before higher oil prices revived inflation worries ahead of the US payrolls report.
Madrid formally put forward the former Bank of Spain governor, widely seen as a leading candidate, as the race for the top job at the European Central Bank entered a new phase.
2,077 items read
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 30, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.9% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.5%
None
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.8%
None
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.3%
None
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.6%
None
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
7.1%
None
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.5%
None
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
None
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.8%
None
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.8%
None
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
6.9%
None
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.9%
None
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
