For Active Investors.
S&P 500, 1927 to 2026S&P 500, 1977 to 2026
AiM Weekly is a free newsletter about managing risk through the whole market cycle. Posts range from cash levels and position sizing to market sentiment, macroeconomics and political economy, and more.
Get AiM Weekly, free.
Your email address, and your first name if you like. The first issue arrives on Saturday. Unsubscribe any time. Privacy
Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
The S-1 points to an 85% gross margin and a $40 trillion market opportunity, while warning that the company’s safety advocacy could make it a target.
Pablo Hernandez de Cos, who runs the Bank for International Settlements, is the frontrunner, and both candidates have already begun reaching out.
The deal came at a defence gathering in the Philippines that closed with renewed friction between Manila and Beijing over the South China Sea.
The White House meeting came days before the 3 November midterm elections, with many inside the administration skeptical about resuming military operations.
The hedge fund manager announced an investment in Trade[XYZ], a partner of Intercontinental Exchange, and Hyperliquid Strategies shares rose 19%.
Nvidia said diversion allegations against the Singapore firm were investigated and disproven, while Senator Elizabeth Warren pressed for AI export controls.
A Section 232 proclamation signed on Wednesday sends Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and trade representative Jamieson Greer to negotiate with trading partners instead of imposing duties for now.
BYD earned 10 billion yuan in the quarter on revenue of 211.5 billion yuan, and Geely also reported higher profit on export-driven revenue.
The White House economic adviser’s remarks came as the S&P 500 fell 0.3% at midday on worries about Alphabet’s AI spending.
Taiwan thanked both governments after Merz and Takaichi met in Tokyo and issued a statement on peace in the Taiwan Strait.
White employment fell about 4 percent while Asian employment was roughly unchanged, as DOGE drove diversity-related cuts.
The crypto exchange settled the FCA’s lawsuit and is ending services for British customers, on the same day KuCoin said it would exit Russia and Belarus.
The announcement opens a succession race led by Pablo Hernández de Cos and Klaas Knot while France’s bond market is in turmoil and energy prices surge.
The UN General Assembly condemned the embargo for the 34th year, but Washington persuaded more nations to oppose or sit out the vote.
Kristalina Georgieva said Li will leave at the end of his term on 30 November, with Liao due to take office on 1 December.
A British maritime agency reported a vessel on fire north of Khasab, while it was not clear when the incidents Iran described took place or which flags the tankers flew.
Microsoft reported strong cloud earnings and lower capex, while Alphabet lifted its third-quarter AI spending past $50 billion.
Business investment and consumer spending drove the fastest growth in a year, in a report published less than a week before the midterm elections.
Defense officials said Hegseth had lost confidence in Sylvia, who clashed with Elbridge Colby, in the latest exit of a senior officer.
US officials concluded that Megaspeed executive Alice Huang cultivated a close relationship with the Nvidia chief to pass intelligence to Beijing.
The praise came during a space programme update, as Ukraine recovers from the throttling of its Starshield service and SpaceX shares retreat.
The letter is the most senior US outreach to Tehran in months, as Trump weighs resuming major combat after the midterms and says he did not direct it.
The carmaker made a loss in China and called for urgent cost cuts, yet its shares rose because the bad news had been well signposted.
Taipei tracked Chinese ships and military aircraft around the island overnight, as Beijing bristles at Japanese support for Taiwan and its standoff with Manila deepens.
4,070 items read
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 23, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.7% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.5%
None
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.8%
None
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.3%
None
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.7%
None
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
7.1%
None
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.6%
None
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
None
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.9%
None
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.9%
None
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
7.0%
None
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.6%
None
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
