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AiM Weekly is a free newsletter about managing risk through the whole market cycle. Posts range from cash levels and position sizing to market sentiment, macroeconomics and political economy, and more.
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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say tankers on an unauthorized route were hit by explosions, while the US military says it fired on a cargo vessel that tried to breach its blockade of Iran.
Saudi Arabia says it intercepted missiles aimed at Riyadh, while more than 50 people were killed in Yemen in one of the deadliest 24 hours of the war.
Musalem says bringing inflation to 2% is a ‘necessary condition’ and Goolsbee calls it the economy’s ‘biggest problem’, while an AI selloff is the main argument against a move.
The Turkish president’s visit is a sign of thaw with a key ally that buys Israeli weapons and ships oil to Israel through Turkey, a day after a call with Trump on Iran and Ukraine.
Manila’s foreign affairs department defends dialogue with Beijing as its main tool in the South China Sea dispute, days after a call between Lazaro and China’s foreign minister.
The quarter-point hike was expected, but a dissent in favour of more tightening was not, and mortgage, savings and tax rates are already moving.
Democrats who won both chambers are expected to put the Trump family’s crypto venture and its USD1 stablecoin under oversight, possibly as soon as February 2027.
The Kremlin says it hopes the US election shake-up will not shift Trump’s negotiations on Ukraine, as Putin steps up attacks on Ukraine’s economy ahead of fresh peace talks.
Documents naming companies and CEOs from Palantir’s Alex Karp to Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong outline the new majority’s oversight plans, which party insiders are still finalizing.
The order came days after Democrats won both chambers, as Rep. Thomas Massie prepares to force a vote this week on impeaching the defense secretary.
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
Seven of the eleven lazy portfolios held cash: from 1% to 13%.
As of November 6, 2026, they range from 7.6% to 11.6% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%, up to 50%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
10.4%
4%
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
10.9%
8%
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
11.3%
12%
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
11.6%
13%
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
9.3%
None
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
10.1%
1%
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
9.1%
None
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
10.4%
4%
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
10.5%
5%
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
7.6%
None
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
9.4%
None
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
