Teresa's approach to financial markets is distinct and deeply pragmatic. Grounded in extensive real-world trading experience we seek to understand and focus on the real forces shaping markets.

Her methodology synthesizes behavioral and quantitative finance. By quantifying insights about volatility and investor sentiment gained from a long trading career, Teresa developed adaptive strategies designed to navigate the market's ever-changing nature. As a result, her asset allocation strategy never relied on MPT, and instead focused on volatility-based risk management, applying lessons like Nobel laureate Robert Merton's later realization that portfolios should target stable volatility. Her focus on geoeconomic forces led her to pivot away from bonds before their 2022 decline.

Key principles she follows and teaches include patience and the discipline of separating the signal from the setup. Rather than reacting impulsively to market information, the emphasizes is on having a defined reason ("setup") to act and waiting for the right conditions or catalyst, a skill that is very powerful despite its simplicity. This patient, disciplined approach is combined with data-driven signals and analytical tools (like the AiM for TradeStation) that incorporate insights from technical analysis pioneers like Justin Mamis and Stan Weinstein to identify market sentiment shifts.

Through the Black Swan Study Club, Teresa provides reality-based, data-driven analysis, helping investors gain advanced market insights, understand market anomalies, manage risk effectively based on real volatility, and ultimately, see the patterns others miss and seize opportunity from chaos. Her adaptive strategies protected investors and unlocked opportunities, delivering results when traditional approaches collapsed, proving the power of an approach grounded in understanding, experience, and adaptation to real-world volatility.

A belief that focus on first-principles thinking to deeply understand the market's real forces is key to unlocking solutions. As Perry Merhling wrote about Fischer Black, "if a problem does not yield to known methods, that doesn’t mean we need more sophisticated methods, indeed probably just the opposite. Usually problems are hard not because our technique is deficient but because our understanding is deficient."

• The synthesis of behavioral and quantitative finance, recognizing that markets are influenced by elements like investor sentiment and "animal spirits" which rigid models miss.
• A pragmatic focus on volatility-based risk management rather than fixed asset allocations, adapting to the market's ever-changing nature. This includes applying lessons learned, like targeting stable volatility.
• The practical discipline of separating the signal from the setup, emphasizing patience and acting only when there's a defined reason for the trade, a technique that is very powerful.
• Utilizing data-driven signals and tools that incorporate insights from market veterans to understand sentiment shifts.

Teresa's approach isn't just theoretical; it has been stress-tested through market booms and crashes and delivered results when traditional methods faltered. This ability to see the patterns others miss and seize opportunity from chaos is a significant differentiator.

It's this blend of deep understanding, practical experience, adaptation, and a focus on real-world market dynamics (including quantifying sentiment and volatility) that makes her approach so compelling and fruitful.

Most investors rely on financial advisors using outdated models and rigid strategies. Traditional portfolio construction, based on Harry Markowitz’s Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), assumes that stocks and bonds move in opposite directions—so combining them should stabilize risk.

That assumption failed in 2022 when rising inflation and interest rates caused both stocks and bonds to plummet simultaneously. Investors who followed conventional asset allocation models suffered unprecedented losses, while outdated risk assessments failed to prepare them for real-world volatility.

Most investment firms prioritize sales over performance. Their strategies rely on software that can’t adapt to modern markets and sell-side research designed to serve the firm’s interests—not yours.

Risk assessments, like KYC questionnaires, are more about legal protection than actual risk management. Research confirms these assessments often misrepresent clients' actual risk tolerance, leading to misaligned portfolios that fail under stress (Grable et al., 2020; Linciano & Soccorso, 2012).

We never relied on MPT. Our strategies evolved from real trading experience, focusing on volatility-based risk management instead of rigid asset allocations.

Nobel laureate Robert Merton—who famously miscalculated risk at LTCM—later realized that portfolios should target stable volatility, not fixed allocations. We applied that lesson early, pivoting away from bonds in 2019 and completely exiting by 2021, shielding our capital while others suffered.

Recognizing the macroeconomic shifts early, we began to pivot away from bonds in 2019 based on our own insights. By the end of 2021, our Endgame models contained no bonds, shielding us from the unprecedented losses that plagued traditional portfolios. Our macroeconomic analysis, commitment to adaptive strategies and real-time risk assessment protected our investments and unlocked opportunities — delivering results when traditional strategies collapsed.