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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
Tehran’s ambassador to Pakistan says Iran has offered to reopen the strait, conditional on action by Washington, as foreign ministers meeting in Istanbul press for diplomacy.
The secretary of state’s call for a ‘discreet’ partnership with American intelligence followed a Florida rally at which the president floated a warship ‘stopover’ off the island, and Havana answered with scorn.
Consumers expect faster price rises as the Middle East war keeps energy costs high, while turmoil in France weighs on the euro and investors price an ECB hold.
The president has endorsed the prime minister, but some of his advisers see openings for his Middle East agenda under another leader, as the architects of the Iran war prepare to face voters.
Speaking in Istanbul, the prime minister said a trade deal could be signed ‘this afternoon’, and criticised the US ambassador to Canada.
Credit risk in AI infrastructure is rising, and the lending model Blackstone pioneered with neoclouds, and that Nvidia now wants lenders to adopt, faces its first real test.
A technical-level round in the United Arab Emirates gives the latest peace push a venue and a date, after Steve Witkoff’s ninth meeting with Vladimir Putin.
The chancellor is expected to defer hard choices on defence while funding a short-term spending package, and a former Bank of England chief economist warns of a ‘mañana budget’.
Kyiv’s defence ministry says front-line satellite service is back to normal, while US lawmakers press the Pentagon for guarantees and Ukraine plans its own system.
The administration argues that a second candidate named Dan Sullivan could confuse voters in a ranked-choice race, and the president says he ordered the suit.
The agency held France at Aa3 on Friday, a surprise reprieve for a government facing violent protests and rising borrowing costs.
The UN ambassador’s interview signalled preparation for a prolonged standoff, at odds with the president’s calls for an early end; Waltz later disputed how his remarks were portrayed.
Russia and Ukraine agreed to pause military action in the town to let in aid and evacuate civilians, according to the White House.
Attorney General Ken Paxton’s state-court suit accuses the company and its chief executive of breaking consumer-protection, child-safety and privacy laws.
The 23 October memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Iran has substantially increased efforts to target US diplomats, and officials link it to embassy drawdowns.
The Claude maker is expected to seek a $2 trillion valuation, and a reported leak of its prospectus points to heavy losses and large compute commitments.
The cargo follows the president’s 16 October decision to waive new Russia sanctions and buy Moscow’s diesel, but it will not arrive before the midterms.
The joint venture will pursue US Navy logistics ships and commercial vessels under South Korea’s $150 billion US shipbuilding pledge.
Bugs found by OpenAI models in code that powers millions of websites forced governments and companies to take sites offline to patch them.
Surveys show price pressures building on both sides of the Channel ahead of upcoming decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
Both companies have formed committees to study a combination that Musk calls a good idea, but politics, China and regulators could stand in the way.
A relaunched preparedness campaign cites hostile states, terrorists, cyber attacks and severe weather as threats to supplies.
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 12, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.8% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.6%
0%
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.9%
0%
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.4%
0%
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.8%
0%
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
6.9%
0%
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.7%
0%
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
0%
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.9%
0%
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.9%
0%
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
7.1%
0%
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.7%
0%
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
