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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
Democrats flipped Senate seats in Texas, North Carolina and Iowa and will hold at least 54 seats, while President Trump said Republicans would have won had he been on the ballot.
Musk’s companies and AI infrastructure stocks took the first hit from the results, while Treasury yields and the dollar fell and accounts of the broader stock market diverged.
Before the results were final, Democrats were already calling for both chambers to use their new subpoena power, and a Republican senator warned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth of “a reckoning”.
The claim came as Tehran exempted ships from India, China, Iraq and Qatar from its transit restrictions and oil traded above $100 a barrel.
Bitcoin recovered its election-night losses by morning, but World Liberty Financial fell 11% and analysts said a Democratic Congress could stall market-structure legislation for two years.
Canada’s prime minister said more intense negotiations began after a call with the president, while the US trade representative is urging Trump to settle the tariff dispute.
The midterm results put the AI infrastructure buildout under political pressure, including in Texas, the center of the boom.
A phone call between the two foreign ministers produced an agreement to manage differences, alongside a Chinese demand that Manila rein in politicians Beijing accuses of intolerable conduct.
The administration said rising US output will bring prices down, while voters angry over gasoline, diesel and power bills handed Democrats control of Congress.
Energy costs pushed consumer prices higher for an eighth month above target, keeping a December rate increase in view at the European Central Bank’s final meeting of the year.
The five-year lease would have given the Chinese internet group access to as many as 100,000 advanced chips, and Oracle shares slipped more than 1% before the open.
4,242 items read
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 30, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.9% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.5%
None
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.8%
None
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.3%
None
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.6%
None
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
7.1%
None
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.5%
None
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
None
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.8%
None
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.8%
None
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
6.9%
None
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.9%
None
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
