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AiM Weekly is a free newsletter about managing risk through the whole market cycle. Posts range from cash levels and position sizing to market sentiment, macroeconomics and political economy, and more.
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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps says a tanker carrying more than two million barrels exploded on a naval mine and declared the strait shut; US Central Command says it is open.
The Journal reports that Tehran is supplying the intelligence behind Houthi attacks on the kingdom, while Iran’s foreign ministry denies any role.
An executive order signed on Friday suspends the sanctions and tariffs that the Graham Act was about to impose on Russia and on the countries buying its energy.
Beijing’s draft now spans 40 technologies and separates remote AI model access from overseas deployment, while Taipei prepares criminal penalties for unauthorised AI chip exports.
Two hotter-than-expected inflation reports did not stop the market pricing an October hold, and the dollar had its worst week in a month.
Politico reports that the company has quietly circulated draft federal legislation, as its co-founder renews his call for frontier AI regulation.
The Fed chairman told the IMF meetings that the artificial intelligence investment surge is a shock central bankers have to recognise, and announced a task force hearing on productivity and jobs.
The Financial Times reports a double-digit yield on Anthropic’s latest chip financing, at the same time as investors mark down bonds across the AI complex.
Reuters reports the bank is weeks from its first digital asset service, one of several incumbents building custody and settlement rails rather than trading desks.
The Fund says the Bank of Japan is doing the right thing and sees one more hike toward neutral, but wants it ready to move faster if inflation overshoots.
A disclosure of redemption requests at Blue Owl’s largest private-credit fund lands in the same week the ECB tells the IMF that private credit alone is unlikely to destabilise the euro area.
The ECB president told the IMF meetings that higher market borrowing costs are curbing growth and will ultimately curb prices, while the Bundesbank chief would not rule out another hike.
1,913 items read
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 12, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.8% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.6%
0%
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.9%
0%
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.4%
0%
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.8%
0%
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
6.9%
0%
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.7%
0%
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
0%
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.9%
0%
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.9%
0%
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
7.1%
0%
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.7%
0%
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
