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AiM Weekly is a free newsletter about managing risk through the whole market cycle. Posts range from cash levels and position sizing to market sentiment, macroeconomics and political economy, and more.
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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
The Fed chair told the IMF meeting in Bangkok that the world had broadly conformed to the central bank’s expectations, declined to steer expectations for this month’s decision, and moved markets with his remarks on artificial intelligence instead.
Financiers are saying publicly that the debt funding data centres and chips looks disconnected from what customers are paying, and CoreWeave’s shares fell again on Friday.
Economists polled before Friday’s release expected core prices to pass the central bank’s 2% goal, as Governor Kazuo Ueda said the timing of the next move would turn on the Middle East, AI demand and the exchange rate.
The commerce secretary has resisted significant cuts to tariffs on Mexican steel, aluminium and vehicles, slowing a deal that officials say is not at an impasse.
Rising mortgage rates cut into September sales as construction starts edged higher, and the Bank of Canada faces a pivotal decision at the end of the month.
BBC Verify counted 12 vessels struck in a single week in data from a UK maritime agency, and US crude traded near $98 as traders weighed further supply disruption.
The European Central Bank has authorised the Italian bank to cross the 30% shareholding threshold in its German rival, UniCredit said on Thursday.
Beijing has put forward draft rules that would license exports of advanced artificial-intelligence models, AI agents and chip-design technology, and says the policy is not aimed at any country.
The Washington Post reported the donor list for the project, which includes large technology companies and executives with business before the administration.
Candidates in both parties are running against data-centre development, companies are offering money and guardrails to communities, and BlackRock’s chief executive warns that a construction ban would carry a macroeconomic cost.
The Philippine government condemned comments by China’s ambassador in Manila, while Beijing’s defence ministry said it would act to deter what it called sabotage in the disputed waters.
Elon Musk showed the long-delayed car at a SpaceX test site in Texas, days after a report that a merger of the two companies could be weeks away.
2,098 items read
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 12, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.8% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.6%
0%
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.9%
0%
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.4%
0%
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.8%
0%
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
6.9%
0%
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.7%
0%
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
0%
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.9%
0%
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.9%
0%
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
7.1%
0%
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.7%
0%
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
