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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
A slick from an attacked tanker has closed beaches in Sharjah, while Brent sits at a five-month high and physical Gulf crude trades at a discount.
The University of Michigan’s final October reading slipped from 48.1 in September, leaving the index 10% below a year earlier and close to the bottom of its 74-year history.
CoreWeave fell 9.67% on Thursday and is down 29% this month, as investors question how heavily indebted data-centre builders will fund their expansion.
A new proclamation under a 1930 trade law removes paper, plastics, farm machinery and packaging from the duties as Collins fights a tight re-election race in Maine.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright added helium under the Energy Act of 2020 amid disruption to global supply, making it only the second gas on the list after fluorine.
Markets see little chance of a move at Chair Kevin Warsh’s next meeting, but traders and economists are split on how firmly a December increase is priced.
The central bank’s October financial system report flags rising AI-related risks a week before a policy meeting at which a hold is widely expected.
From Ohio to Maryland, Pennsylvania and Oregon, opposition to data centre projects and their incentives is shaping campaigns and local budgets.
The Tesla and SpaceX chief has put nearly half a billion dollars into the campaign, with his America PAC alone spending $71 million on Republican candidates.
The proclamation directs Commerce and the US trade representative to negotiate with trading partners, leaving turbine makers such as Vestas facing prolonged uncertainty over US orders.
The Geely-controlled carmaker plans to cut 2,500 jobs, blaming China’s price war as well as US tariffs and the end of American electric-vehicle subsidies.
The Securities and Exchange Commission said examiners will focus on private funds, private credit and complex strategies as private credit managers face a wave of redemption requests.
The backlash and a deadly Russian attack came as Putin said talks must focus on security for Russia, Ukraine and Europe as a whole.
The president announced the step at an Iowa rally, and the Energy Department said the money would restart a refinery and expand fuel output.
Leaked audio of a private lecture shows the tech investor and Republican donor criticising the decision to go to war while still backing the president.
Foreign diplomats are discussing quick recognition of the winner, who will have to balance ties with China and the United States.
The draft rule would add biotechnology to the outbound investment limits and covers Russia and North Korea alongside China.
The embassy cited Canada’s targeted retaliatory tariffs as evidence of influence; Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada is not getting involved.
The probe follows an inspector general referral on contracting during Kristi Noem’s tenure, including a $220 million ad campaign and ties to GEO Group.
Jakarta would return to China’s onshore debt market, possibly in November, after selling 7 billion yuan in its debut panda bond in July.
The September reading keeps a December rate rise in play, although the central bank is expected to hold at next week’s meeting.
Several surveys show sentiment collapsing ahead of Healey’s Budget, adding to the case for a Bank of England rate rise on 5 November.
The Senate’s top Democratic investigator is seeking records on payments to the former White House crypto adviser’s firm, adding to scrutiny of the stablecoin issuer.
OpenAI lowered its asking price after some investors resisted a $1.4 trillion valuation, and UAE investors are leading the round.
3,894 items read
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 12, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.8% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.6%
0%
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.9%
0%
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.4%
0%
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.8%
0%
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
6.9%
0%
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.7%
0%
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
0%
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.9%
0%
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.9%
0%
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
7.1%
0%
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.7%
0%
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
