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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said further hikes will likely be needed, while Cleveland’s Beth Hammack backed a gradual path of smaller increases.
Senior officials are discussing the Commerce secretary’s future even as the White House says President Trump still backs him.
In a speech marking Sun Yat-sen’s anniversary, China’s president said Taiwan’s ‘complete reunification’ will certainly happen, a week before his APEC summit with Donald Trump.
Michael Barr said the US should prepare for AI to displace workers at scale and tilt income toward investors, though he said its effect so far is mostly on prices.
After meeting Putin in Moscow, the US envoy said Europeans will take part in the next round, while Moscow says work is under way on a three-way meeting with Xi.
Demand for the AI company’s listing held up through the Nvidia leadership crisis, with trading set to start on 19 November.
The Federal Reserve’s proposed 2027 calendar keeps eight meetings but strips the rate decision from the late-October one, putting Chair Kevin Warsh’s plan into practice.
Kyiv says the military version of SpaceX’s Starlink is being throttled for the second time in recent weeks, a claim SpaceX denies.
The Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds at a high yield of 5.441%, after a week of underwhelming auctions that included a weak 10-year sale.
The US government’s official monthly figure shows fiscal 2027 opening with the largest October shortfall on record as spending rose and tariff receipts fell.
A 28-page strategic plan backs land sales and a focus on ‘nationally significant’ ground, but it may need Congress and drew immediate backlash.
Washington now appears open in some form to a security arrangement Moscow has long sought, alarming many European governments, as the envoys head on to see Zelensky.
Paris appears to favour the Bank for International Settlements chief over Dutch rival Klaas Knot as the ECB prepares for a major leadership change.
Official figures show the fastest growth in more than two years, adding to expectations that the Bank of England will raise rates again.
Stronger-than-expected results from the debt-funded AI cloud provider eased fears about financing costs and set off a rally in neocloud stocks.
Nvidia’s board hands the company to its longtime finance chief, names its first board chair and starts a search for a permanent successor.
A joint declaration from the Paris meeting also voices serious concern over the East and South China Seas, and Taiwan’s presidential office thanks the group.
Iranian state media said the vessels hit naval mines after ignoring warnings against an ‘unauthorized route’ through the waterway.
Tokyo’s warning revives the prospect of another intervention after hot US inflation data lifted bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes.
The president redirects Vice President Vance toward domestic targets, a day after reports that Vance was weighing direct talks with Tehran.
The People’s Bank of China signals restraint on further easing as growth holds up, even as it repeats its pro-growth commitment.
4,889 items read
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
Seven of the eleven lazy portfolios held cash: from 1% to 13%.
As of November 6, 2026, they range from 7.6% to 11.6% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%, up to 50%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
10.4%
4%
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
10.9%
8%
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
11.3%
12%
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
11.6%
13%
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
9.3%
None
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
10.1%
1%
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
9.1%
None
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
10.4%
4%
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
10.5%
5%
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
7.6%
None
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
9.4%
None
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
