GDP & Macro Reality
China’s economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter as exports carried a weak home market
Growth beat forecasts on export strength while property investment and household spending kept falling.
S&P 500, 1927 to 2026S&P 500, 1977 to 2026
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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
The briefing
Musk promises a SpaceX share to every American child after Anthropic pledges 5% of its stock
Two of the largest private AI companies are moving equity towards the public before their listings, by very different routes.
China puts tunnel boring machines and more drones under export control
Beijing moved from consultation to binding restrictions on Monday, citing national security.
Putin asks for a summit with Trump and Xi on Ukraine, with Zelensky left out
The Kremlin said the three leaders could meet in China next month, and Kyiv said the format would reward Moscow.
Canadian inflation rose to 3.1% in September as pump prices jumped
The last price reading before the Bank of Canada’s 28 October decision put inflation back above the top of its target band.
Manila summons China’s ambassador over remarks on the use of force
The Philippine foreign secretary protested comments her government called a threat, while both sides said they wanted to keep economic ties intact.
The Bank of England examines whether Barclays understated private credit risk
The regulator is looking at how traders classified derivatives tied to illiquid private credit loans after an insider raised concerns.
The Bank of Japan’s governor says underlying inflation is close to its 2% goal
Kazuo Ueda pointed to strong global AI demand as an added source of price pressure days before the bank’s policy meeting.
The euro falls as French unrest widens and traders trim bets on an ECB rise
Nearly 2,400 arrests after Saturday’s protests lifted euro-area yields and pared the odds of a rate increase this month.
Wall Street strategists trim equity targets after the worst week since June
Morgan Stanley says the index is masking a broader pullback while Yardeni cuts its year-end S&P 500 target.
Lula and Bolsonaro trade barbs in Brazil’s first election debate
Latin American currencies were mixed as a tight race kept investors on edge.
Oil slips from a five-month high as Washington eases Russian curbs
Iranian officials told the Washington Post their government wants prices painful through the US midterms.
Edwin’s run, morning edition
1,512 items read
- 48 hours of RSS feeds tracking people and topics I follow
- 12 stories, most-sourced first
- 0 rejected by the checks
Eleven popular lazy portfolios, and how much of each should be in cash this week
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 12, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.8% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.6%
0%
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.9%
0%
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.4%
0%
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.8%
0%
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
6.9%
0%
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.7%
0%
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
0%
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.9%
0%
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.9%
0%
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
7.1%
0%
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.7%
0%
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
On the record
When 60/40 Stopped Working
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
How to Know a Bottom When You Don’t See One
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
