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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
The central bank, opposition leaders and leading economists have rejected the prime minister’s suggestion that cryptocurrency could protect Israel from possible international sanctions.
Reported figures put Anthropic’s first-half sales far above an earlier $1.1 billion and its listing target at roughly double its latest private valuation, while the wider IPO market waits for its S-1.
The US military says more than 95% of ships now pass Hormuz safely, while shipping monitors and regional reports describe a strait that remains severely disrupted.
Democrats want the defence secretary to testify, and one senior House member wants subpoenas for Pete Hegseth and Elon Musk, over who ordered the limits on Ukraine’s satellite service.
The US president ruled out a Sunday attack while Qatar’s mediators began a US-coordinated effort in Tehran, and Iran said it shot down an American drone over Bandar Abbas.
Voting in Brazil’s presidential runoff was extended on Sunday in a knife-edge contest that will decide whether Latin America’s largest economy moves further to the right.
Malaysia’s prime minister says the SoftBank founder plans a $50 billion outlay on AI and data centres, a pledge that lands as SoftBank leans on bond markets to fund its OpenAI stake.
Canada’s central bank decides on Wednesday, the same day the Federal Reserve is expected to hold, in a week when the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan are set for a hawkish pause.
The White House says talks with Canada have picked up, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in contact with Canadian counterparts all week, days after Trump eased some tariffs on Canadian goods.
The top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee wants to tax data centres more heavily and strip them of federal tax breaks, as local governments move to pause or ban new facilities.
China has called on the US Treasury to stop its proposed restrictions on American investment in Chinese technology, which now reach into biotechnology, and has threatened to retaliate.
Meta’s board has rewritten the company’s capital structure in a deal tied to Mark Zuckerberg staying in California, just as the state’s voters decide on what supporters call the world’s first tax on billionaires.
US Central Command has options ready for renewed strikes if the White House authorises them, while Iranian officials threaten Israel, US forces and the undersea cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz.
The North Korean leader paid tribute to Chinese Korean War dead and met senior Chinese officials in a one-day visit read in Seoul as a message to Washington ahead of Trump’s expected trip.
As Brazilians choose between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, an investigation says two US State Department officials led an effort to return the right-wing family to power.
Russia has proposed a three-way meeting on the sidelines of next month’s APEC summit in China, drawing comparisons to Yalta from Ukrainian critics and leaving Beijing in an unusual position.
The Treasury Secretary’s claim of recovering supply sits alongside Brent prices between $112 and $117, which Goldman Sachs and other analysts attribute to Middle East tensions and a war-risk premium.
The former Bank of England chief economist called bank tax plans ‘penny wise, pound foolish’ days before the Budget, which will lift funding for affordable homes to more than £40bn.
Disclosed guarantees tie two of the largest AI companies to data-centre leases and neocloud capacity, as analysts estimate CoreWeave may need tens of billions more in financing.
Junk-bond spreads have widened and issuers have pulled the most deals of the year, while SoftBank’s $11 billion high-yield sale at up to 9.75% shows the price of funding AI spending.
2,470 items read
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 12, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.8% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.6%
0%
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.9%
0%
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.4%
0%
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.8%
0%
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
6.9%
0%
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.7%
0%
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
0%
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.9%
0%
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.9%
0%
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
7.1%
0%
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.7%
0%
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
