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Written by Teresa Lo, a market veteran who survived every crash since 1987.About →
Trump wants to let Qatar-mediated talks play out for now, while Israel is reported ready for renewed fighting and Iranian officials send mixed signals on the strait.
Seven core members held quotas steady at an online meeting on Sunday as the US-Iran war and disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz cloud the outlook.
The Canadian prime minister reported progress in stalled talks two days before the US midterms and ahead of Canada’s budget day, as US officials pushed back on a Canadian claim.
At the Manama Dialogue, the UAE’s presidential adviser said military solutions offer no quick off-ramps, while Abu Dhabi hopes for a US-Iran deal and prepares for the worst.
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson says to buy the dip whoever wins, while bond investors stay on the sidelines and strategists flag shutdown and borrowing-limit risks.
The exchange says withdrawals are stabilising and that it has now covered 95% of the stolen assets, while other tallies put outflows as high as $4.5 billion.
A resolution from the fifth plenum puts cryptocurrency and cross-border funds on the anti-corruption list and pledges to reach deeper into tech and digital platforms.
The company is preparing for a harsher Washington if Democrats win the House, as candidates backing data center moratoriums contest governor’s races in 21 states.
Overseas markets carried BYD’s October sales, while Xiaomi reported its highest monthly deliveries of the year despite a shrinking market for extended-range vehicles.
The report centres on alleged meetings between Huang and a Singapore-based data centre executive suspected of working for Chinese intelligence.
The exchange said a first phase would cover 15 assets including bitcoin and ether, while accounts differ on whether it has covered 90% or 95% of the losses.
Iran says the ships were using unauthorised routes, as attacks on shipping in a conflict that has killed at least 24 civilian seafarers continue.
Protests in Berlin, Hamburg and Frankfurt saw shops looted, while Paris saw a third weekend of unrest and French authorities deployed 70,000 police.
Gulf states are scrambling to keep the conflict from their doorstep, and the UAE says it hopes for a breakthrough but is braced for the worst.
Judge Darrin Gayles found Trump’s lawyers failed to credibly allege actual malice, ending a refiled claim for at least $10 billion in damages.
The secretary of state also defended Russia’s place in the G20 against criticism from allies unhappy with Trump’s plan to waive some tariffs and sanctions.
Every Saturday the free newsletter scores eleven popular lazy portfolios, Three-Fund, Coffeehouse, All Seasons and the rest, and works out how much of each should sit in cash. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash.
The reading
All eleven lazy portfolios were fully invested.
As of October 30, 2026, they range from 6.5% to 8.9% volatility. Raise cash once volatility exceeds 10%.
Get it free, every Saturday.
Cash is king during downturns. Knowing when to raise cash reduced the typical portfolio’s worst drawdown by 31 percent.
Portfolio
Worst drawdown since 2005
Drawdown %
some cash · all in
Volatility
now
Cash
now
Armstrong Ideal Index
IVV 7 · IUSV 9 · MSML 6 · ISCV 9 · IXUS 31 · USRT 8 · ISTB 30
−27.9 · −44.1
7.5%
None
Swensen
ITOT 30 · IDEV 15 · IEMG 10 · USRT 15 · GOVT 15 · TIP 15
−26.0 · −42.6
7.8%
None
Burns Margarita
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · TIP 33
−28.9 · −42.0
8.3%
None
Larimore Three-Fund
ITOT 34 · IXUS 33 · AGG 33
−27.8 · −40.5
8.6%
None
Schultheis Coffeehouse
Six stock funds, 10 each · AGG 40
−24.4 · −38.2
7.1%
None
Ferri Core Four
ITOT 30 · IXUS 24 · AGG 40 · USRT 6
−25.3 · −36.7
7.5%
None
Bernstein Coward’s
Eight stock funds, 60 in all · ISTB 40
−23.0 · −36.4
6.5%
None
Ferri Two-Fund
VT 60 · AGG 40
−25.1 · −35.9
7.8%
None
Ferri Three-Fund
ITOT 40 · IXUS 20 · AGG 40
−25.0 · −35.5
7.8%
None
Robbins/Dalio All Seasons
ITOT 30 · TLT 40 · IEF 15 · GLD 7.5 · BCI 7.5
−21.1 · −24.3
6.9%
None
Browne Permanent
ITOT · GLD · SHY · TLT, 25 each
−18.6 · −19.0
8.9%
None
Since September 8, 2005 (Robbins/Dalio All Seasons since August 4, 2006). MSML is the iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF, renamed from ISCB on October 5, 2026 (SEC filing). Volatility is the size of a portfolio’s ups and downs, measured over a year. When a portfolio’s volatility rises past 10%, part of it moves to cash to a maximum of 50%. Full details in every issue of AiM Weekly. General information, not investment advice.
In 2018 I concluded that the bond bull market, which began in 1981, was ending, and not for the usual reasons.
By Thursday, March 5, 2009, the S&P 500 had already fallen 56% from its 2007 peak.
