Scope holds the US at AA- and warns debt could reach 160% of GDP

Scope Ratings has maintained the US sovereign rating at AA- with a stable outlook while warning that rising interest costs and debt-limit disputes are turning the debt path riskier^3,6. The agency said US debt could reach 160% of GDP within a decade^1,8. It described the path as leaving the country increasingly exposed^4,9. Debt-servicing costs are expected to drive further fiscal deterioration, the agency said, even when primary deficits, which exclude interest payments, are set aside¹⁰.

Scope sits well below its larger peers on the United States. It last lowered the country during the 2025 debt-ceiling impasse and now scores it two steps below Moody’s, Fitch and S&P Global Ratings^2,4,8,9.

Why it matters to investors

The agency’s framing is about market dependence rather than imminent default. Fortune reported that US debt is increasingly at the mercy of the market as interest costs surge and the debt ceiling looms⁷. Scope warned that increasingly heavy interest costs limit the government’s ability to respond to future shocks, and that the arithmetic worsens without stronger economic growth⁵.

On the politics, Scope said the post-midterm landscape could increase the scope for prolonged partisan standoffs over the debt limit, with repeated debt-ceiling episodes a recurring feature rather than a one-off⁷. IndexBox summarised the agency’s position as a debt outlook vulnerable to bond-market swings¹⁰. That is a different claim from a credit warning: it says the cost of the debt is set by conditions the Treasury does not control^5,10.

What to watch

Briefs noted that if a debt-ceiling showdown returns, the crosscurrents intensify, and that watching fiscal signals helps explain the direction of yields³. The agency has kept the outlook stable, so the near-term question is what would change it rather than what the rating is now⁶.

Three markers. The handling of the debt limit after the midterm elections, which Scope singled out as the political risk⁷. The trajectory of debt-servicing costs relative to primary deficits, which is the mechanism the agency says drives deterioration¹⁰. And whether the larger agencies move toward Scope’s assessment or leave the two-notch gap in place^2,9. Scope’s own precedent is that it acts during a debt-ceiling impasse rather than ahead of one, which suggests the next move, if there is one, would come in the middle of a standoff rather than before it^4,8. For holders of Treasuries the practical consequence is that a rating action and a funding squeeze would arrive together rather than in sequence^5,7.