Goldman Reverses Its Oil Call and Puts $120 Brent Back in View

Analysts led by Daan Struyven at Goldman Sachs raised their oil price forecasts on Monday, a significant shift from the stance the bank held three months ago¹. The team lifted its Brent and WTI forecasts by $5, to $85 and $80 a barrel for December 2026, and to $80 and $75 for 2027². The revision was framed around Middle East disruptions the bank now expects to extend into 2027². Struyven is the bank’s co-head of global commodities research⁴.

Alongside the new base case, Goldman set out a higher scenario. Oil may rally to as much as $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping in the Middle East increase, the bank said^4,5. MarketWatch described the call as Goldman flipping its oil-price forecast and raising the prospect that Brent might exceed $120 per barrel³. Struyven said the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying has become more pronounced⁷. Brent was trading near $97 as the call circulated⁶.

Why it matters to investors

The reversal matters less for the level than for the direction of travel. Benzinga noted the bank had held a materially different view as recently as three months ago, which makes this a change of mind rather than a marginal revision¹. A wealth manager quoted in the same report warned oil could surge above $120 if Persian Gulf supply disruptions continue¹.

The practical content for investors is the distance between the base case and the scenario. Goldman’s December 2026 Brent forecast of $85 sits below the level at which the contract was already trading when the note landed^2,6. The published forecast therefore describes a market that cools from here, while the risk case describes one that does not^2,4.

What to watch

The trigger the bank names is narrow. Its condition is whether attacks on shipping in the Middle East increase, and whether disruptions broaden and intensify from current levels^5,7. Vessel traffic rather than production policy is the variable that separates the two paths Goldman has sketched^5,7.

Two dates frame the published outlook. The nearer is December 2026, for which Goldman now carries $85 Brent and $80 WTI². The further is 2027, where the forecasts are $80 and $75 and where the bank expects Middle East disruption to persist². Between them sits the $120 case, presented as conditional rather than expected^3,4,5. Coverage of the note was consistent on that distinction: the higher number is a risk the bank is now willing to publish, not a forecast it has adopted^4,5,6.