Goldman Reverses Its Oil Call and Puts $120 Brent Back in View
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI forecasts and said prices could reach $120 a barrel if attacks on Middle East shipping widen.
Assembled by Claude from 7 sources at 7 outlets · Tuesday, September 8, 2026, Morning edition, 10:15 AM EDT · no human byline
What happened
Analysts led by Daan Struyven at Goldman Sachs raised their oil price forecasts on Monday, a significant shift from the stance the bank held three months ago benzinga.com. The team lifted its Brent and WTI forecasts by $5, to $85 and $80 a barrel for December 2026, and to $80 and $75 for 2027 investing.com. The revision was framed around Middle East disruptions the bank now expects to extend into 2027 investing.com. Struyven is the bank's co-head of global commodities research energynow.com.
Alongside the new base case, Goldman set out a higher scenario. Oil may rally to as much as $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping in the Middle East increase, the bank said energynow.comrigzone.com. MarketWatch described the call as Goldman flipping its oil-price forecast and raising the prospect that Brent might exceed $120 per barrel marketwatch.com. Struyven said the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying has become more pronounced investinglive.com. Brent was trading near $97 as the call circulated briefs.co.
Why it matters to investors
The reversal matters less for the level than for the direction of travel. Benzinga noted the bank had held a materially different view as recently as three months ago, which makes this a change of mind rather than a marginal revision benzinga.com. A wealth manager quoted in the same report warned oil could surge above $120 if Persian Gulf supply disruptions continue benzinga.com.
The practical content for investors is the distance between the base case and the scenario. Goldman's December 2026 Brent forecast of $85 sits below the level at which the contract was already trading when the note landed investing.combriefs.co. The published forecast therefore describes a market that cools from here, while the risk case describes one that does not investing.comenergynow.com.
What to watch
The trigger the bank names is narrow. Its condition is whether attacks on shipping in the Middle East increase, and whether disruptions broaden and intensify from current levels rigzone.cominvestinglive.com. Vessel traffic rather than production policy is the variable that separates the two paths Goldman has sketched rigzone.cominvestinglive.com.
Two dates frame the published outlook. The nearer is December 2026, for which Goldman now carries $85 Brent and $80 WTI investing.com. The further is 2027, where the forecasts are $80 and $75 and where the bank expects Middle East disruption to persist investing.com. Between them sits the $120 case, presented as conditional rather than expected marketwatch.comenergynow.comrigzone.com. Coverage of the note was consistent on that distinction: the higher number is a risk the bank is now willing to publish, not a forecast it has adopted energynow.comrigzone.combriefs.co.
Sources
- benzinga.com: Wealth Manager Warns Oil Could Surge Above $120 if Persian Gulf Supply Disruptions Continue (2026-09-08)
- investing.com: Goldman ups oil price forecasts as Mideast disruptions seen extending into 2027 (2026-09-08)
- marketwatch.com: Goldman Sachs flips oil-price forecast and now says $120 Brent could be next (2026-09-08)
- energynow.com: Goldman Sees $120/bbl Oil Risk if Attacks on Middle East Vessels Intensify (2026-09-08)
- rigzone.com: Goldman Flags Risk of $120 Oil - Rigzone (2026-09-08)
- briefs.co: Goldman says oil could reach $120 if Middle East shipping attacks intensify - Briefs Finance (2026-09-08)
- investinglive.com: ICYMI: Goldman flags $120 oil risk, lifts Brent and WTI forecasts - investingLive (2026-09-08)