The bank attributes almost half of this year's index earnings growth to AI-related investment, and expects depreciation to offset nearly all of those gains by 2028.
Analysts & Strategists
10 storiesThe bank's chief US equity strategist expects earnings growth to decelerate rather than collapse as the AI capex tailwind fades.
The central banks' own institution says investors are growing cautious about a rally now resting on rising debt and leveraged non-bank money.
The sector carrying index earnings growth sold off on Monday as investors tried to price a deceleration the industry asked for itself.
The bank's commodities team raised its outlook on the view that markets are pricing a prolonged conflict, even as the International Energy Agency points to demand destruction.
The strategist put a level on it: crude above 120 dollars would drain liquidity, in a week when stocks rose on the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate rise.
A second day of triple-digit crude pushed inflation expectations and borrowing costs higher across the world.
Crude broke into triple digits for the first time since July, and Wall Street strategists split over whether it changes the equity story.
The bank lifted its Brent forecast and set out a separate scenario in which broader tanker attacks carry crude far above current levels.
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI forecasts and said prices could reach $120 a barrel if attacks on Middle East shipping widen.