Yemen’s government opens an offensive to retake the Bab el-Mandeb strait

Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi Arabia launched a counteroffensive against the Houthis on Sunday, the head of Yemen’s presidential council said in a speech⁸. “We have exhausted all opportunities for deescalation with the Houthi militias,” Rashad al-Alimi said⁸. Al-Alimi said all avenues for de-escalation had been tried before the operation began⁵. Yemen declared the start of a large-scale military operation against the group⁷, describing it as an effort to seize back all areas held by the Iran-backed movement⁶.

One of the stated objectives is to regain control of the Bab al-Mandeb strait⁸. The Houthis seized the strait in a lightning offensive down the coast that saw government forces collapse, and have held the initiative on the ground since^2,6. Their control of the coastal area and the surrounding mountains complicates any attempt by the government to take it back⁴. The seizure happened only weeks ago¹.

Why it matters to investors

Bab el-Mandeb is the southern exit of the Red Sea and one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints^2,3. Axios described it as a vital artery for global trade and Saudi oil exports, and said Houthi control of the nearby coast handed the group and Iran, which backs it, leverage over the United States, its Gulf allies and the world economy⁸.

The route matters more than usual because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted for months, leaving Saudi Arabia more reliant on export routes through the Red Sea⁹. Both of the kingdom’s main outlets to the sea are now contested at the same time^8,9. The government offensive is therefore less a local territorial fight than an attempt to reopen one of the two corridors that carry its crude^3,8.

What to watch

The Houthis said they had struck Aramco sites in the Saudi capital and the Khurais area¹¹. The claim of an attack on Aramco came as the Yemen conflict escalated⁹, and was reported as a claimed strike on Saudi Aramco in Riyadh¹⁰. That moves the fighting from shipping lanes to production and processing infrastructure inside the kingdom^10,11.

The Houthis have stepped up their own offensive in recent weeks⁷, and further gains could strengthen their position³. For investors the test is whether the government push shifts control of the coast, or simply adds a second front to a war already pressing on tanker routes^4,6.