Gulf crude exports top pre-war levels while tanker attacks multiply

Middle East crude exports have exceeded pre-war levels, with the threshold crossed on September 24, even as attacks on tankers increase⁷. Exports surpassed pre-war levels despite the tensions, according to the data cited in the reporting². Kpler figures show flows through the Strait of Hormuz topped pre-war levels in late September⁵. Before the war, the region exported some 19 million barrels of crude a day¹¹.

The recovery is measured against a sharp collapse. When the strait closed at the start of the Iran war, the seven-day average of non-Iranian crude leaving the region fell by 72% in 10 days⁴. Oil prices fell as Hormuz traffic rebounded, a move that came alongside G7 nations releasing energy stockpiles in a bid to tame surging diesel prices^1,5.

Why it matters to investors

Volume has returned; risk has not. UKMTO reported four tanker strikes in the strait between October 1 and 4, all on the Omani side of the waterway⁹. A Dynacom newbuild Aframax was among multiple vessels hit on 4 October, with the incident reported by the ship’s master⁶. Iran struck another tanker on Sunday, extending a fast-paced run of attacks on the shuttle trade between Gulf oil terminals⁸.

The ships being hit are new and large. One vessel struck was a brand new LR2 tanker⁸, another a newbuild Aframax⁶, and UKMTO has logged the strikes individually rather than as a single incident⁹. Al Jazeera’s framing of the data is that exports surpassed pre-war levels despite the tensions, which is the pairing that defines the market now².

That combination is the price story. Brent is still above $100 a barrel despite the flow recovery⁵, and the question put by Bloomberg is why oil remains stuck near $100³. The physical market has normalised faster than the risk premium attached to carrying the cargo^3,5.

What to watch

Tehran has set a political price. Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until the United States meets seven conditions set out in a June interim agreement¹⁰. Until that changes, three series are worth following: export volumes, which have now recovered past their pre-war baseline^2,7; the attack count, which UKMTO has been publishing strike by strike^6,9; and the G7 stockpile releases that have been doing the work on refined product prices¹.