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GDP & Macro Reality

US trade deficit widens to $105.6 billion as imports hit a record

August’s gap was the widest since just before the tariffs took effect last year, and economists now expect net trade to subtract from third-quarter growth.

October 6, 2026Evening edition5 outlets Assembled by machine

Watercolour landscape whose skyline traces uS real GDP, 1947 to 2026, on a log scale.
US real GDP, 1947 to 2026

The US trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion in August, the widest since just before the Trump tariffs were enacted last year1. Record imports pushed the balance deep into the red2. The Wall Street Journal put the gap at about $106 billion, with the United States buying more crude oil, gold and semiconductors from abroad4.

The outcome was worse than forecasters expected. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a deficit of $102.0 billion2. Exports rose 1.4 per cent over the month, but not by enough to keep pace with the import side2. The balance sank deeper into the red even though tariffs remain in place3.

The widening came despite the tariff regime that was meant to narrow it, a point carried in the reporting on the August figures1,3.

Why it matters to investors

The immediate consequence is a markdown to growth. Net trade is set to drag on third-quarter GDP growth, according to Oren Klachkin, financial economist at Nationwide, who cautioned that rising prices overstate the moves1. One account carried the same point as a headline finding: trade is set to weigh on GDP growth2.

Forecasters have already cut their numbers. Goldman Sachs economists trimmed their third-quarter GDP growth estimate to a 3.1% annualized rate from a 3.4% pace, against an economy that grew at 2.2% previously3.

The composition is as notable as the headline. The extra imports were concentrated in crude oil, gold and semiconductors, three categories that respond to energy prices, safe-haven demand and the AI build-out rather than to ordinary consumer restocking4.

Exports were not the problem. They rose 1.4 per cent over the month; the deterioration came from the import side, where volumes set a record2.

What to watch

The policy response is live. Writing on the August figures, Peter Navarro set out two readings of the same data and discussed tariff authority under Section 122 of the Trade Act5, which keeps further trade measures on the table even as the existing tariffs have not narrowed the gap3.

For the growth arithmetic, the question is whether the import surge persists into September. If it does, the drag on third-quarter GDP that Klachkin describes becomes a fourth-quarter drag as well, and the Goldman cut to 3.1% from 3.4% would not be the last revision1,3. The gap between the $105.6 billion outcome and the $102.0 billion consensus is also a reminder that the monthly series has been running ahead of forecasts1,2.

Sources

  1. Trade deficit hits $105.6 billion, widest since just before Trump tariffs enacted last year, cnbc.com (2026-10-06)
  2. Record imports push U.S. trade balance deep into the red in August, bnnbloomberg.ca (2026-10-06)
  3. US trade balance sinks deeper into the red as imports hit record high despite tariffs, miamiherald.com (2026-10-06)
  4. U.S. imports were higher than exports by about $106 billion in August, wsj.com (2026-10-06)
  5. August’s Trade Deficit Tells Two Very Different Stories | RealClearMarkets, realclearmarkets.com (2026-10-06)

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