Policy changes are set to cost middle-income households about $1,700 this year, a report finds
The same analysis puts the gain for the richest 1% at $12,560, and consumer sentiment is now weaker than it was after the 2008 crisis.
GDP & Macro Reality
Economists polled by the FT see an AI growth surge; the IMF says few will feel it
A survey of economists points to productivity gains from artificial intelligence, while the Fund warns the benefits are concentrated and the labour effects are already visible.
Musk tells his biographer that only AI and robots can close the deficit
The former head of the government’s cost-cutting effort says savings alone cannot fix the national debt, and calls his own experiment a failure.
Anthropic tells policymakers AI could take US output to $44 trillion by 2030, while measured returns stay thin
Jack Clark put the company’s own growth scenario to the IMF, as separate research found most firms using AI report no change in revenue.
The national debt crosses $40 trillion and interest payments set a record
Interest on the federal debt reached about $1.36 trillion in the fiscal year just ended, and net interest topped $1 trillion for the first time.
Consumer sentiment falls to a fifteen-year low while chief executives turn negative
The LSEG/Ipsos sentiment index dropped to 45.2 in October and the Conference Board’s CEO gauge fell to 46, below the level that marks pessimism.
Import prices rose 1.1% in September as factory output edged back up
Imported goods inflation came in above forecast while manufacturing production and capacity use both improved, leaving the hard data pointing in two directions at once.
The US budget deficit reaches $1.99 trillion, the widest in five years
Treasury figures for fiscal 2026 show a shortfall $217 billion larger than the year before, with interest costs supplying more than half of the increase.
Canadian home sales fall again while housing starts pick up before a live rate decision
Rising mortgage rates cut into September sales as construction starts edged higher, and the Bank of Canada faces a pivotal decision at the end of the month.
Britain’s economy grew 0.1% in August, defying forecasts of a contraction before the Budget
Official figures showed the UK economy expanded slightly in August when analysts had expected a small decline, and the IMF said Britain does not need to accelerate its deficit reduction.
Social Security payments rise 3.6% next year, the largest increase in four years
The Social Security Administration set the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment at 3.6% for 76 million recipients, as the programme becomes a central argument in the midterm campaign.
US consumer prices rose 3.7% in September as fuel costs bit harder
The annual inflation rate accelerated from August and came in above expectations, and traders immediately lifted the odds of another Federal Reserve rate rise.
Federal contract spending is set to cross $1 trillion despite DOGE’s cuts
Procurement is on track for a record even as the cost-cutting drive claimed reductions elsewhere.
US home sales readings conflict as mortgage rates climb again
One account has September sales rising for the first time since May; another has sales at their lowest in more than a decade.
A sharp deterioration in Chinese consumer sentiment lands on luxury
LVMH’s biggest division shrank in the third quarter and Citi cut its target on a Hong Kong-listed jeweller, both citing consumer pressure.
US consumer sentiment falls to 46.3 and Wall Street reads it as a risk to the rally
The University of Michigan’s preliminary index dropped to 46.3 in October from 48.1 in September, and Bloomberg reports that Wall Street now treats the exhausted American shopper as the main threat to the equity market.
Washington lends crude from the strategic reserve after Hurricane Isaias
The Energy Department has authorised exchanges of reserve oil to two companies after the storm disrupted Gulf Coast supply.
Takaichi backs away from the reflationist label as Japan restarts a spending review
Japan’s prime minister is distancing herself from reflation after US complaints about the weak yen, while her finance minister reopens a review of more than 200 government funds.
The New York Fed puts the rise in consumer goods prices down to tariffs
A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study finds tariffs account for the increase in consumer goods prices, as refunds start flowing back to companies and class actions ask who really paid.
Canada sheds 68,300 jobs in September and the loonie hits an 18-month low
A second consecutive monthly employment decline pushed the jobless rate to 6.5 percent and all but closed the door on a Bank of Canada rate rise.
Consumer sentiment falls to 46.3 as current conditions set a record low
The University of Michigan’s preliminary October index came in below forecasts, and its gauge of current conditions was the weakest on record.
US payrolls rose 29,000 in September as unemployment held at 4.2 percent
Hiring nearly stalled last month while weekly layoff filings stayed below 200,000, leaving a labor market that is slow to hire and slow to fire.
WTO lifts its 2026 goods trade forecast to 3.9 percent
The World Trade Organization doubled its estimate for merchandise trade growth this year, crediting AI investment for offsetting disruption from the Middle East conflict.
New York Fed research finds tariff increases take about a year to reach shop prices
A quarter of any tariff increase eventually reaches consumer goods prices, and most of it arrives only after twelve months.
India raises its policy rate for the first time in nearly four years
The Reserve Bank of India lifted the repo rate by 25 basis points and raised its growth and inflation forecasts on the same day.
Australian consumer sentiment slides to 80.4 after the RBA’s rate rise
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index fell 4.7% in October to its weakest reading since the 1990s, days after the Reserve Bank lifted rates to a 15-year high.
US trade deficit widens to $105.6 billion as imports hit a record
August’s gap was the widest since just before the tariffs took effect last year, and economists now expect net trade to subtract from third-quarter growth.
Spending keeps rising while US consumer sentiment sits at 48.1
Confidence readings are the weakest in more than a decade even as households buy more, splitting the signal ahead of the holiday quarter.
US payrolls rise 29,000 in September as revisions cut 60,000 from earlier months
A soft employment report lands two weeks after the Fed’s rate increase and days before the minutes that explain it.
US payrolls add 29,000 in September as unemployment rises to 4.2%
Hiring came in far below expectations and the jobless rate ticked up, weakening the case for another Federal Reserve rate increase this month.
Vietnam’s third-quarter growth hits 9.95% as exports jump
Growth was the fastest in four years and beat the median forecast by more than a percentage point, with exports up 24.5%.
US payrolls add 29,000 in September as earlier months are revised down
Hiring came in far below forecasts and the Bureau of Labor Statistics cut its estimates for July and August.
US payrolls rose 29,000 in September as the jobless rate edged up to 4.2%
Hiring came in far below forecasts and the Bureau of Labor Statistics cut its tallies for the two prior months.
September Payrolls Come In Far Short of Expectations
US employers added 29,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2 per cent, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to hold in October.
SNAP’s funding model shifts to the states as new rules take effect
From 1 October, states pick up a larger share of food-stamp costs just as tighter eligibility rules and a cost-of-living increase land together.
Second-quarter GDP revised up to 2.2% while consumer confidence falls to a 2014 low
The final reading of second-quarter growth came in well above the previous estimate and above forecasts, on the same week that household confidence fell to its lowest level in more than a decade.
Second-quarter growth revised up to 2.2% as consumer confidence slides
The final estimate of spring output was stronger than economists expected, while the Conference Board’s confidence index fell to its lowest reading in more than a decade.
US consumer confidence falls to its lowest level in more than a decade
The Conference Board index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9, the weakest reading since 2014.
US consumer confidence falls to its lowest level since 2014
The Conference Board index came in at 81.9 for September, far below consensus, while the University of Michigan gauge fell to its second-lowest reading on record.
US and China publish tariff-cut lists covering $60 billion of goods, with soybeans left out
Washington and Beijing each named non-sensitive products for more favourable tariff treatment, but set no timeline and excluded the largest US farm export.
US consumer confidence drops to 81.9, the weakest reading since 2014
The Conference Board’s index fell 6.7 points in September as households turned more negative on prices and on the labour market.
Fitch warns an AI-driven correction could tip the US into recession
The agency lifted its global growth forecast while naming AI spending as the central downside risk.
US and China publish the product lists behind their tariff-cut deal
Washington and Beijing named goods for reduced duties after the Trump and Xi meeting, though accounts of the package size differ.
US consumer sentiment slides to a four-month low
The University of Michigan index fell to 48.1 in September as inflation worries deepened across party lines.
US and China agree to cut tariffs on $30 billion of goods
Beijing and Washington set out a reciprocal tariff reduction and a dialogue on AI after Xi Jinping’s state visit, with detail promised on Monday.
US consumer sentiment falls to a four-month low
The University of Michigan’s final September reading dropped as households reported deepening worries about prices, and year-ahead inflation expectations rose.
US consumer sentiment falls to 48.1 as inflation expectations climb
The University of Michigan index hit a four-month low in September and year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6%.
Business equipment orders lift third-quarter growth estimates while headline durable goods stall
Goldman Sachs raised its estimate for July to September growth after core capital goods orders came in strong, even though total durable goods orders did not move in August.
US consumer sentiment falls to 48.1 as fuel and mortgage costs bite
The University of Michigan headline index dropped for a second month, and outlets disagree on whether that is a four-month low or nearly the worst reading on record.
IMF calls record sovereign debt worrisome as global borrowing tops $365 trillion
Global government debt now stands above its post-war peak, and the fund’s managing director says high debt makes every other shock harder to absorb.
Consumer sentiment ends September near the lowest reading on record
The University of Michigan’s final September index came in at 48.1 as households told the survey they expect faster price increases over the year ahead.
Costco books $184 million in tariff refunds and says most will go to lower prices
The warehouse retailer’s fourth-quarter beat leaned on a one-off customs repayment, and the reported size of the profit gain differs between accounts.
US current account deficit widens in the second quarter as sources split on the read
The shortfall reached 246.0 billion dollars, but outlets disagree on the size of the increase and on whether the figure beat or missed expectations.
Washington refunds $122 billion of tariffs, and companies are keeping the cash
An Atlanta Fed survey found most firms will hold their tariff refunds rather than spend or return them, while the money is already flattering reported profits this earnings season.
Dimon Puts Hyperscaler AI Spending Near $1 Trillion Next Year
Forecasters now place AI infrastructure capex above $1.3 trillion by 2027, a figure large enough to register in the macro data.
Record diesel prices push Washington toward an export ban fight
Diesel hit a record high and senior Republicans want an export embargo, but the president’s own energy and interior secretaries are against it.
UK Consumer Sentiment Falls as Rate-Rise Fears Bite
The S&P Global index slipped to 42.7 in September from 42.9 in August, with job security the weakest component for all but technology workers.
IMF says global public debt is at a record and heading above 100 per cent of GDP
Kristalina Georgieva told the Qatar Economic Forum that governments are falling short on deficit cuts even as the world economy proves more resilient than feared.
Consumer sentiment slides to a record low as Cohn says Americans are drawing down savings
The Michigan index fell again in September while inflation expectations rose, and a former White House economic adviser says households are funding spending out of savings.
Pentagon puts the Iran war bill above the budget office’s own estimate
Two official figures for the same war are now in circulation, and neither counts the damage to US bases.
Trump signs Russia and Iran sanctions act, opening the door to tariffs on Russian-oil buyers
H.R. 5334 gives the president authority to impose secondary tariffs on the largest buyers of Russian crude, with India and China at the centre of the risk.
Moody’s lifts India’s growth forecast to 7% on war resilience
The ratings agency raised its real GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 7% from 6%, while flagging energy prices, the external account and debt as the offsets.
Retail sales rebound and jobless claims tumble as growth trackers jump
August retail sales beat consensus, weekly claims fell back below 200,000 and the Atlanta Fed’s tracker moved to a 5.1% annual pace.
Two official price tags for the Iran war, and forty-six senators asking for a third
The Congressional Budget Office and a Pentagon inspector general have put very different numbers on the same conflict, and neither is a full accounting.
Apollo says the credit behind the AI build-out is repricing
Widening hyperscaler default swaps reflect debt-financed capex, rising leverage and negative free cash flow, the firm argues.
August retail sales rebound 1.2 per cent while consumer sentiment keeps sinking
Spending beat forecasts across almost every category even as the Michigan index fell to 51.0.
Shoppers spend, households despair: August retail sales rebound
Retail sales rose 1.2% last month while the main confidence gauge sank toward record lows, leaving the consumer reading split down the middle.
Watchdog puts a price on the DOGE buyouts
The Government Accountability Office found federal agencies paid $9.5 billion in employee leave in 2025, most of it to staff who had already agreed to leave.
Budget office puts the Iran war at $38 billion with a $3 billion monthly tail
The Congressional Budget Office also lifted its inflation projection for early 2027 as Congress voted again to curb the president’s war powers.
Carney’s Canada Investment Summit Lands Nearly $500 Billion in Pledges
Ottawa paired a new investment tax deduction with a room full of the world’s largest asset managers as its trade war with Washington continues.
CBO Puts the Iran War at $38 Billion and Raises Its Inflation Forecast
The budget office says the conflict has cost the Pentagon about $38 billion so far and will add $2 billion to $3 billion a month, while lifting its inflation projection for early next year.
US Consumer Sentiment Slumps to 47.8 as Inflation Expectations Climb
The University of Michigan’s preliminary September reading came in well below forecast, with petrol prices and tariff talk cited as the main drags.
Consumer sentiment slides as fuel prices and tariff talk bite
The University of Michigan’s preliminary September reading fell to near the lowest level on record, even as household wealth hit a quarterly record.
Trump rules out leaving the USMCA and says a Canada deal could come fairly soon
The president denied plans to withdraw from the North American trade pact even as tariffs on Canadian goods stay in place.
White House weighs using the Defense Production Act to expand US refining capacity
Wartime industrial powers are being considered for an oil-refining system that reporting describes as maxed out.
Trump’s 5,000 dollar dividend runs into Congress and the deficit arithmetic
House Speaker Mike Johnson says the payments need congressional approval, contradicting the administration’s claim that it can send them on its own.
Consumer sentiment drops to 47.8, the second lowest reading on record
The University of Michigan index fell from 51.7 and missed consensus, with the expectations component falling further than the headline.
The US-Canada tariff war escalates as Ottawa’s counter-duties take effect
Canadian retaliation now covers roughly $20 billion of US goods, even as Washington lifts one punitive levy on Canadian spirits.
Consumer sentiment falls to 47.8, the second-lowest reading on record
The University of Michigan’s preliminary September index dropped from 51.7 in August as gasoline prices climbed and inflation expectations rose.
UK economy grows 0.4% in July, defying forecasts before the Bank of England meets
Analysts had predicted no growth at all, and the surprise arrives with borrowing costs and inflation risks both climbing.
Trump’s $5,000 dividend pledge meets a trillion-dollar price tag
The president has promised every US adult a $5,000 payment if Republicans win the midterms, and independent estimates put the cost above $1 trillion.
US Debt Passes 100% of GDP as Bessent Argues Growth Can Outrun It
The ratio has reached a level not seen since the Second World War, and the Treasury secretary’s answer is a growth rate the economy is not currently running at.
Canada’s dollar-for-dollar tariffs take effect as Trump targets Bombardier
Ottawa’s retaliation hits hundreds of American goods at rates up to 50 per cent, and Washington is already weighing another round.
Canada’s Counter-Tariffs Take Effect as Trump Threatens to Escalate
Ottawa’s retaliatory duties hit hundreds of US product lines from Tuesday, with rates running as high as 50 per cent.
Canada’s counter-tariffs take effect with no talks scheduled
Ottawa’s retaliatory tariffs came into force overnight as President Trump told Bombardier it cannot sell in the United States unless it builds there.
Eurozone growth revised up days before the ECB decides
Eurostat lifted its estimate of second-quarter euro-area growth just as the European Central Bank prepares a rate decision against three-year-high inflation.
Canada’s counter-tariffs on US goods take effect 8 September
Retaliatory duties of up to 50 per cent land this week, and the first cheque is written by the Canadian importer.
US payrolls rose 162,000 in August as unemployment held at 4.1%
The August employment report came in near three times the consensus forecast and pushed market expectations toward a Fed rate rise.