Rubio says Iran has lost control of Hormuz while the IRGC vows to block ‘illegal routes’

Iran has lost complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday, 7 October 2026, speaking in Athens^4,5. Rubio said Iran’s grip on the strait has significantly weakened in recent weeks, and he made the claim despite the increase in attacks on shipping there³.

Tehran said the opposite within hours. A senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the strait is closed and will stay closed until Iran’s demands are met⁸. An IRGC official said Iran will soon block what it deems illegal routes through the strait^1,2. The Guard Corps has consistently denied that seaborne crude flows through the strait are rebounding thanks to US Navy help¹. Earlier editions reported Iran stepping up tanker attacks in the waterway⁶.

Why it matters to investors

The two claims cannot both be right, and the crude risk premium sits on the difference. Washington’s position is that the strait is open and Iranian control has eroded; Tehran’s is that the waterway is shut on its terms and that the routes now being used are illegitimate and will be closed^2,3,8.

The traffic data cuts against the more reassuring reading. Attacks on tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest level last week of any week since the Iran war began, according to maritime sources⁶. A claim of lost Iranian control alongside a record week of attacks is the tension investors have to price^3,6.

What to watch

Shipping capacity is where the dispute becomes a cost. A US oil trader has taken a $2bn gamble on tankers as carriers steer clear of Hormuz, and the rush to secure ships comes as the war with Iran has created a growing shortage of tankers⁷. That shortage is a measurable consequence regardless of which government’s description of control is accurate^6,7.

Three signals will resolve the question. The first is whether the IRGC follows through on blocking the routes it calls illegal, since that threat is specific and dated to the near term^1,2. The second is whether attack counts fall from last week’s high or set another record⁶. The third is whether charter rates and tanker availability improve, because carriers steering clear of the strait is the clearest evidence that commercial operators are not persuaded the waterway is open^4,7.