US intelligence memo warns Iranian plots to kill American officials have reached advanced stages

US intelligence has found that Iran has “substantially increased” its efforts to target American diplomats and officials in the Middle East and beyond, with lethal plots reaching “advanced stages,” according to an October 23 memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, first obtained by Axios¹.

The memo was written by Jay Clayton and copied to CIA Director John Ratcliffe^4,6. It said lethal plots had “reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other” locations⁵. “Specifically, through various channels, we have received intelligence that Iran has substantially” increased these efforts, the memo said³.

These are the findings of US intelligence agencies as set out in the memo; Iran’s response to them is not included in the reports^1,2.

Why it matters to investors

US officials say the intelligence is one reason the State Department is drawing down personnel at several American embassies across the Middle East, amid mounting fears of a broader regional conflict¹. The drawdowns show the warning is already changing how the US staffs its missions in the region¹.

Officials also fear that Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen could expand their attacks beyond Saudi Arabia to other countries in the region¹. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has also threatened US military bases⁹.

The conflict began in late February with US-Israeli attacks on Iran that killed the country’s supreme leader along with senior military commanders⁸. The memo was sent to Rubio by Jay Clayton, and it warns that lethal plots against Americans have reached advanced stages^7,10. The US intelligence findings say Iran’s efforts to kill American officials have substantially increased¹⁰.

What to watch

Further embassy drawdowns would be the clearest sign that officials are acting on the warning¹. So would any public statement from Rubio, to whom the memo was addressed, or from Ratcliffe, who was copied^4,6.

The geography of the threat matters too. The memo refers to plots in the Middle East and in certain other locations, which widens the risk beyond the region^1,5. Any expansion of Houthi attacks beyond Saudi Arabia, which officials fear, would be the main signal for markets exposed to Gulf shipping and energy¹.

The warning arrives as US officials weigh the risk of a broader conflict, which is the concern behind the drawdowns¹. Threats by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard against US military bases add a second front to watch alongside the plots against officials^1,9.