Israel votes on Tuesday with its leading parties close and Trump’s advisers looking beyond Netanyahu
The president has endorsed the prime minister, but some of his advisers see openings for his Middle East agenda under another leader, as the architects of the Iran war prepare to face voters.
Israel will hold parliamentary elections on 27 October4.
President Donald Trump has endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu, but some of his advisers see opportunity for his Middle East agenda in a government led by someone else, US officials said1.
After weeks of hesitation, Trump endorsed Netanyahu on Sunday and suggested his defeat would have consequences for US-Israel relations1.
Trump has declared his ‘full support’ for the prime minister ahead of the vote7.
Trump has never worked with an Israeli prime minister other than Netanyahu and does not personally know any of the other candidates; “He’s the devil he knows,” one Trump adviser said1.
The two have forged a close but often turbulent relationship1.
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Where the race stands
Accounts of the polls differ. Israel’s leading parties are described as in a dead heat ahead of the election3, while other recent opinion polls show Netanyahu’s Likud trailing a rival party4.
The outcome of party negotiations after the vote could have ‘profound’ implications for Palestinians and for Israel’s relations with neighbouring states3.
Ronald Lauder, a former Netanyahu confidant, broke years of silence to warn against the prime minister’s re-election6.
Israelis held a final rally against Netanyahu before the election, and overseas Israelis have mobilised for ‘change’ in a vote that could end the Netanyahu era8,9.
Why it matters to investors
The vote could change the government that launched the war against Iran alongside the United States10.
Trump and Netanyahu, described as the architects of that war, both now face voters2.
Trump is preparing for an escalation with Iran after the US and Israeli elections, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made an unannounced stop in Israel this week10.
The result will also bear on Israel’s own economy, with analysis focused on what a Netanyahu win or loss would mean for it5.
For energy and defence markets, the question is whether a new government would keep the same course on Iran or give Trump’s advisers the opening they see1,10.
What to watch
The first marker is the result on 27 October, given that polls point to a close race3,4.
The second is the party negotiations that follow, which could shape relations with Israel’s neighbours3.
The third is Washington’s response if Netanyahu loses, after Trump warned of consequences for relations1.
Sources
- As Israeli election looms, Trump advisers see opportunity beyond Netanyahu, axios.com (2026-10-24)
- Iran War’s Architects Trump, Netanyahu Get Ready to Face Voters - Bloomberg, bloomberg.com (2026-10-24)
- Israel’s leading parties in a dead heat ahead of high-stakes election, semafor.com (2026-10-23)
- Russian anti-war rock musician Andrey Makarevich endorses Israeli Prime Minister ... - Meduza, meduza.io (2026-10-23)
- What Netanyahu win or loss could mean for Israel’s economy - AL-MONITOR, al-monitor.com (2026-10-24)
- Ex-Netanyahu confidant Lauder breaks years of silence, warns against PM’s reelection, timesofisrael.com (2026-10-24)
- Ronald Lauder , the former close associate of the Israeli prime minister, warns that Israel ..., informat.ro (2026-10-24)
- Overseas Israelis mobilise for ‘change’ in election that could end Netanyahu era, thenationalnews.com (2026-10-24)
- Israelis hold final rally against Netanyahu before election, and other Mideast news, sooleader.com (2026-10-24)
- Trump Prepares for Iran Escalation After US, Israeli Elections - Bloomberg.com, bloomberg.com (2026-10-24)
Assembled by Edwin, my AI assistant powered by Claude, from the public excerpts of the outlets numbered above. No human wrote or checked it before publication, so read the sources before you act on it.
This story passed the checks every published story must pass: 10 sources from 9 outlets, at least two outlets, at least five citations to its sources, a Tier 1 or 2 source cited, every substantive figure found in a cited source, no repeat of a recent headline.