US officials campaigned to restore the Bolsonaro clan, investigation finds, as Brazilians vote

Two US State Department officials led a campaign to restore the right-wing Bolsonaro family to power in Brazil, according to a Reuters investigation published on 24 October^5,6. The account describes Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a key leader⁶.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whose department administers Magnitsky sanctions through OFAC, offered no opposition, a former official said⁷. That detail matters because Treasury controls the Magnitsky sanctions tool that the account says went unopposed⁷.

The findings landed on the eve of the vote. Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday in a tight runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro^1,9.

The choice

Lula is Brazil’s current left-wing president, and Bolsonaro is a right-wing senator⁴. Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of a former president³. He has the backing of Donald Trump¹¹. The runoff is being read as a test of Lula’s leftist legacy against Bolsonaro’s right-wing movement¹².

The two men offer different foreign policies. Bolsonaro seeks to align Brazil more closely with right-wing governments elsewhere in Latin America, while Lula favours an independent foreign policy¹³. In a recent debate, Bolsonaro declared he would declare war on “narco-terrorism”⁸.

Tens of thousands of supporters of both candidates flooded the streets on the eve of the vote, wrapping up a bitter campaign¹⁰.

Why it matters to investors

A win for Flávio Bolsonaro would extend a winning streak for the right in Latin America¹. “If Bolsonaro becomes president, Brazil will join the right-wing wave sweeping across Latin America,” said Yang of Chatham House¹¹.

The narrow race could redefine the future of the region², and its outcome will have repercussions far beyond Brazil as right-wing governments gain ground¹². Latin America’s MAGA wave is widening Trump’s political and military reach⁸.

The investigation adds a question about Washington’s role to a result that will set the direction of Latin America’s largest economy^5,10.

What to watch

The first marker is the result of a vote that could shift the region’s politics⁹. After that, investors will watch any response from Brasília to the reported US campaign⁵, and whether a Bolsonaro victory brings closer alignment with Washington and its regional security agenda^8,13.