US moves to lift 50% tariffs on some Canadian products before the midterms, but Carney says there is no deal yet
The partial tariff relief follows lobbying by a Republican senator in Maine, while new 50% duties are still due to take effect on October 30.
The United States will remove 50% tariffs on certain Canadian products1. The US announced the plan after an embattled Republican senator in Maine lobbied for the move, as the White House looks to bolster its candidates ahead of the November 3 elections2.
Canadian Prime Minister Carney said trade talks between the two countries are picking up pace but that there is no deal yet4. The talks have picked up between US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s minister responsible for the negotiations with the United States4.
The partial relief came after National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on Sunday that negotiators were ‘very close’ to reaching an agreement3.
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Why it matters to investors
The two sides are describing the talks differently. A US-Canada trade deal is not as close as the White House portrayed it, according to reporting on the negotiations3. Carney’s statement that there is no deal yet4 stands against Hassett’s description of an agreement as very close3.
The timing points to domestic politics. The tariff removal follows lobbying by the Maine senator and comes as the White House looks to help its candidates before the vote2. A daily recap of Trump-related market moves listed the tariff removal among the policies affecting industries and stocks1.
The relief is narrow. New 50% US tariffs are set to take effect on October 30, and the Bank of Canada may raise rates on October 28, a combination that bears on household budgets in Canada5. A Trump adviser has blamed the Canadian province of Alberta for the delay in reaching a trade deal5. For companies on both sides of the border, the removal of some duties1 sits alongside the new tariffs that are still scheduled5.
What to watch
The next dates are close together. The Bank of Canada decision on October 28 and the start of the new US tariffs on October 305 both fall before the November 3 elections2.
Investors will watch whether the talks between Lutnick and LeBlanc4 produce an agreement before the new tariffs take effect, and which Canadian products the US relief covers1. Any change in the White House’s description of how close a deal is3 would be another signal. The role of Alberta, which the Trump adviser cited as the reason for delay5, is a further point of friction to follow.
Sources
- Trump Trade: U.S. to remove 50% tariffs on certain Canadian products, interactivebrokers.com (2026-10-26)
- US to remove some Canadian tariffs ahead of elections, semafor.com (2026-10-25)
- US-Canada trade deal not as ‘close’ as portrayed, semafor.com (2026-10-26)
- US-Canada Trade Talks Are Picking Up Pace But No Deal Yet, Carney Says, finance.yahoo.com (2026-10-26)
- Trump advisor blames Alberta for trade delay - Money.ca, money.ca (2026-10-26)
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