Israeli exit polls show Netanyahu’s bloc losing its majority, with Eisenkot also short of 61 seats
Exit polls gave Eisenkot’s bloc 52 to 53 seats and Netanyahu’s 50 after the highest turnout since 1973, pointing to a possible minority government backed by Arab parties.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition is projected to lose its parliamentary majority, but his opponent Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc is short of 61 seats, according to Israeli exit polls1. The polls show Eisenkot’s bloc with 52 to 53 seats, Netanyahu’s with 50 and Arab parties with 17 to 181.
If the results match the polls, Netanyahu’s coalition would have shed 14 seats from the 64 it won in the 2022 elections1. Before the vote, the coalition had been expected to renew the war with Iran if it won3.
Turnout was exceptionally high. Four hours before polls closed, two-thirds of Israeli voters had cast ballots, the highest level since 19732. Netanyahu’s party requested extended voting hours as the opposition expressed optimism6, and the surge in turnout strained Netanyahu’s campaign7,8.
Get AiM Weekly, free.
Why it matters to investors
If the exit polls hold, Eisenkot would have to try to swear in a minority government supported by the two Arab parties, and it is unclear whether all of his political partners would agree1. That points to a period of coalition bargaining rather than a quick handover.
The election was framed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership and on the security failures that led to the Hamas-led October 7 attacks3. A victory for Eisenkot’s Yashar party would upend Israeli politics and could reset the country’s strained relationships abroad4.
The outcome also bears on regional risk. Netanyahu and his coalition were seen as likely to renew the war with Iran if they won3, so a loss of their majority changes that calculation for oil and regional assets. Earlier in the day, Likud had been reported as neck and neck with its main rival5.
Higher turnout was expected to push several parties in Netanyahu’s bloc below the electoral threshold, and stronger Arab turnout could give Arab parties a record number of seats2.
What to watch
The first marker is the official count, which will show whether the exit-poll split of 52 to 53 seats for Eisenkot’s bloc and 50 for Netanyahu’s1 holds, and which smaller parties clear the threshold2.
The second is coalition talks. Whether Eisenkot’s partners accept a minority government relying on Arab parties1 will decide whether he can form a government at all. The campaign was bitter: Netanyahu made false claims about “Muslim Brotherhood supporters” as he tried to energise his voters2.
Sources
- Israeli exit polls: Netanyahu bloc loses, but Eisenkot’s short of clear majority, axios.com (2026-10-27)
- Israeli turnout hits four-decade high in warning sign for Netanyahu, axios.com (2026-10-27)
- Israel braces for an election each side warns could bring ruin, axios.com (2026-10-27)
- The anti-Bibi candidate who has Netanyahu on his heels, axios.com (2026-10-26)
- High turnout in Israel’s election and Trump administration seeks to block alleged noncitizen votes, nbcnews.com (2026-10-27)
- Israel election live: Opposition optimism as Netanyahu’s party requests extended voting hours, thenationalnews.com (2026-10-27)
- Israel election live: Highest voter turnout in decades puts strain on Netanyahu’s campaign, thenationalnews.com (2026-10-27)
- Israelis vote as turnout surges - Al-Monitor, al-monitor.com (2026-10-27)
Assembled by Edwin, my AI assistant powered by Claude, from the public excerpts of the outlets numbered above. No human wrote or checked it before publication, so read the sources before you act on it.
This story passed the checks every published story must pass: 8 sources from 4 outlets, at least two outlets, at least five citations to its sources, a Tier 1 or 2 source cited, every substantive figure found in a cited source, no repeat of a recent headline.