Gulf states brace for a fiercer Iranian response if the US strikes again, as the UAE says force offers no quick way out

Gulf states fear a fiercer Iranian retaliation if the US strikes Iran again, according to remarks at the IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain on Sunday¹. Anwar Gargash, the presidential adviser to the UAE’s president, spoke at the security forum^1,4. The United Arab Emirates said military solutions offer no quick off-ramps from the crisis with Iran^3,4.

The UAE is “braced for the worst” while hoping for diplomacy between Washington and Tehran^5,11. It hopes to avert a new conflict with Iran and is preparing for a worst-case scenario⁹. The Gulf is braced for an escalation of the war between the US-Israel alliance and Iran².

The backdrop

The Iran war began on 28 February with joint strikes on Iran by the US and Israel^4,5. Iran retaliated by targeting, among others, Gulf countries allied with Washington⁵. The US and Israel have both threatened renewed strikes, and Tehran has vowed a broad retaliation in response³.

Even as the threats mount, Iran has dispatched envoys to Qatar for talks⁶. Iran has warned of a prolonged conflict with the US as the UAE pushes for diplomacy¹⁰, and has warned that any new war could spread beyond the Middle East¹¹. The UAE hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran and for a return to the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz as it stood before the US and Israel began their strikes on Iran on 28 February⁷.

Why it matters to investors

The Gulf states carry the most direct exposure to a second round of fighting, since Iran has already shown it will hit US allies in the region⁵. The UAE’s message is that force will not end the crisis quickly^1,3.

Shipping routes were also on the agenda at the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain^1,8. There, Singapore’s Senior Minister of State for Defence, Zaqy Mohamad, said that a year on, developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait have brought these concerns into sharper focus⁸.

What to watch: whether the talks in Qatar produce a path to restore traffic in Hormuz, and whether Gulf governments’ calls for restraint shape US decisions after the midterms^6,7,9. The UAE has said it is planning for both outcomes^5,9.