Iran’s leaders say US voters rejected the war, but Khamenei warns of a wider conflict if strikes resume

Iran’s leaders said the midterm results show US voters have rejected President Donald Trump’s war^2,10. Iran’s chief negotiator said Americans voted “no to war”¹. Officials celebrated the result, and one claim held that a US “collapse has accelerated”¹¹.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei struck a harder line. In a written statement, he said US hostility would persist regardless of which party was in power^8,9. He warned that anyone expecting a change in US policy toward Tehran after the elections is “seriously mistaken”³.

Khamenei also warned on Wednesday that the Middle East war would widen if the US resumes its attacks⁴. A statement attributed to him, released to mark the day, singled out the Persian Gulf and its strait as the stage for what comes next⁵.

Why it matters to investors

The two messages from Tehran point in different directions. Iran cheered the Democrats’ victory but fears Trump’s next move⁶, and its leaders welcomed the results while acknowledging that Trump may still attack⁵.

The supreme leader’s warning ties the political result directly to the Gulf’s shipping lanes. His statement singled out the Persian Gulf and the Strait⁵, and he said the war would widen if US attacks resume⁴.

Washington’s own messages are mixed as well. Trump has admitted the Iran war was a factor in the election defeat, while Tehran remains sceptical of any change⁷. Iran’s leaders read the vote as a rejection of the war¹⁰, but they do not expect the administration to change course³.

Khamenei’s own position adds uncertainty. He has not been seen in public since he was reportedly seriously wounded in an Israeli air strike¹, and his father and predecessor was killed in the opening strikes of the war in February¹⁰.

What to watch

The first question is whether the US resumes strikes. Iran’s leaders fear Trump’s next move⁶, and Khamenei has said the war will widen if attacks resume⁴.

The second is whether Iran’s negotiators read the vote as an opening. The chief negotiator framed the result as a vote against war¹, while the supreme leader said those expecting a policy shift are mistaken³.

The third is the Strait. Khamenei’s statement placed the Persian Gulf at the centre of the next stage⁵, and he says US hostility will persist whichever party governs⁸. Iran’s response to the vote has so far been words rather than action^2,6.