Erdogan joins Azerbaijan’s Victory Day in Baku to ease a rift over Israel, after telling Trump Turkey will keep pushing for US-Iran peace

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Azerbaijan’s Fizuli district on Sunday for Victory Day celebrations². His attendance is a sign of thaw between the two countries¹, and the visit is a bid to ease a rift between allies^3,4.

The tensions concern Azerbaijan’s relations with Israel and Turkey’s rapprochement with Armenia^3,4. At the height of the dispute, Aliyev skipped an Oct. 30 summit¹. Analysts say the quarrel also reflects deeper disagreements over Baku’s diplomatic independence and its close ties to Israel⁶.

The day before, Erdogan spoke with US President Donald Trump. The two discussed bilateral ties, Iran tensions and the war in Ukraine⁷, as well as regional and global developments⁹. Erdogan told Trump that Turkey will keep pushing for peace between the US and Iran^8,10. In Syria’s official account, the two leaders discussed de-escalation between Washington and Tehran¹¹.

Why it matters to investors

The rift touches an energy route. Baku buys Israeli weapons and supplies Israel with oil shipped through Turkey¹. Baku has forged strong military and economic ties with Israel⁴.

Those ties have angered Ankara, which has grown increasingly hostile towards Israel over the war in Gaza⁵. Erdogan has accused Israel of genocide⁵. A repaired relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan would ease one point of friction along that route, while the dispute over Israel remains⁶.

Turkey is also positioning itself in the US-Iran conflict. Erdogan’s message to Trump that Turkey will continue its efforts for peace⁸ places Ankara among the governments offering to mediate between Washington and Tehran^10,11. The same call also covered the war in Ukraine as well as the tensions with Iran⁷.

What to watch

One test is whether the thaw signalled in Baku¹ holds once the celebrations end, given the underlying disagreement over Azerbaijan’s ties to Israel^3,6.

A second is Israel’s own politics, which bear on both disputes. President Isaac Herzog was set to name on Sunday the person tasked with forming Israel’s new government⁸, and hundreds of people rallied in Israel for a government with Arab parties to end Netanyahu’s rule⁹. Demonstrators gathered in Tel Aviv and northern Israel on Saturday⁷.

A third is whether Turkey’s offer on Iran¹⁰ turns into a role in talks, as Erdogan and Trump discussed both Iran tensions and the Ukraine war⁷.