Oil falls as Trump says new Iran strikes are ‘highly unlikely’ if talks progress, ahead of a meeting with Qatar

Oil prices fell after President Donald Trump said new attacks on Iran were unlikely³. Trump said on Sunday he was “highly unlikely” to order an attack on Iran as long as talks to end the conflict make progress^1,6. He said renewed strikes are unlikely as long as negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz move forward⁵.

Trump is due to meet Qatar’s prime minister, the mediator in the Iran war, but no imminent deal is seen to end the war^2,7. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sees no breakthrough in the talks⁴. Washington is pressing Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and make concessions on its nuclear program⁴.

In Tehran, President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Monday that the supreme leader had ordered officials to end the country’s “no war, no peace” situation¹⁰. Pezeshkian said Iran seeks dialogue but will not yield to pressure¹². Accounts identify the supreme leader who gave the instruction as Mojtaba Khamenei¹¹.

Why it matters to investors

Oil prices fell on renewed hopes for an end to the Iran war after Trump downplayed the prospect of a return to conflict⁷. Prices were steady on Monday after his remarks on the likelihood of new strikes⁸.

The strait remains the central risk for energy markets. Iran said no unauthorised vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz overnight after navigation aids were destroyed¹³. Washington’s demand that Iran reopen the strait shows that traffic through the waterway is still restricted^4,13.

Regional governments remain cautious. The UAE’s Gargash warned of prolonged regional uncertainty and said a US-Iran settlement appears difficult⁹. His assessment contrasts with Trump’s more upbeat signal on Sunday^1,9.

What to watch

The meeting with Qatar’s prime minister is the next test of whether diplomacy can move forward^2,7. Rubio’s view that there is no breakthrough, and the absence of an imminent deal, suggest that talks have not yet produced concrete terms^2,4.

Two conditions set out by Washington remain the markers: a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and concessions on Iran’s nuclear program^4,5. On the Iranian side, the instruction Pezeshkian attributed to the supreme leader to end the “no war, no peace” situation, together with his statement that Tehran will not yield to pressure, frames its position going into any new round^10,12.

For oil, the balance is between Trump’s statement that new strikes are “highly unlikely” if talks progress and Iran’s continued control over transits through the strait^6,13.