Russia’s budget deficit reaches 5.23 trillion rubles in ten months as war spending outpaces revenue

Russia posted a budget deficit of 5.23 trillion rubles in the first 10 months of 2026, as stronger revenue failed to keep pace with spending¹. War spending is weighing on the country’s finances¹.

According to the finance ministry, the federal budget deficit for January through October was 5.234 trillion rubles, or 2.3% of GDP³. That was a third more than a year earlier².

The figures come from the Russian government, and the dollar conversions in coverage differ. One report put the deficit at $63 billion¹ and another at $63.4 billion², while a third converted it to $57 billion⁴.

Why it matters to investors

The deficit has widened even with higher oil prices. One account noted that the gap reached its level despite rising oil prices⁴, and another that stronger revenue did not keep up with outlays¹. That points to spending, in particular the cost of the war, as the main driver¹. Coverage described the war spending as hitting the country’s finances in October¹, and the ten-month gap was a third larger than a year earlier².

The government’s own projections show the strain continuing. The Russian government projects a cumulative federal budget deficit of nearly 15.8 trillion rubles, about $191 billion, over the period beginning in 2027⁵. The cumulative deficit for 2027 to 2029 is projected at nearly 15.8 trillion rubles⁶.

Moscow is looking for new revenue. Russia plans a fivefold increase in fines for economic crimes amid rising war spending⁵, and the increase in fines for businesses is planned alongside record military spending⁶.

What to watch

The first question is the full-year figure. With the ten-month gap at 2.3% of GDP according to the finance ministry³, the final months of the year will show whether the deficit keeps widening.

The second is how the government closes the gap. The planned fivefold rise in fines on businesses⁶ is one measure, and the scale of borrowing needed to cover a projected 15.8 trillion rubles in deficits over three years⁶ is another. The government’s own projection of nearly $191 billion in cumulative deficits⁵ shows the shortfalls continuing in its own planning.

The third is the relationship between oil revenue and war spending. The deficit grew despite rising oil prices⁴, and the balance between those two forces will shape Russia’s fiscal position as reported by its finance ministry^1,3.