Bank of Japan’s Ueda puts the weight on anchoring inflation at 2%
The governor said it is becoming more important to keep underlying inflation anchored around the target, leaving further rate increases on the table without committing to October.
Fed & Monetary Policy
September payroll gain of 29,000 cools bets on an October Fed increase
US employers added 29,000 jobs in September, weaker than expected, and traders cut the odds of another rate increase this month.
BIS chief says soaring debt and non-bank finance will make the next crisis harder to fight
Pablo Hernandez de Cos told an audience in Vienna that public debt, non-bank investors and faster digital risks all complicate central bank crisis response.
Takaichi tells markets to ‘rest assured’ as Japan’s debt service bill climbs
Japan’s prime minister pledged fiscal discipline in a policy speech, with funding costs rising as the Bank of Japan raises rates and tapers bond buying.
Euro slips to a 17-month low as French debt and a Spanish election crowd in
A currency falling on fiscal and political news rather than on rate expectations leaves the European Central Bank with an awkward choice.
White House presses Powell to give up his Fed board seat
The administration’s top economic adviser called on the former chair to resign days after the Fed’s internal watchdog reported on its headquarters overrun.
Bank of England flags energy prices and AI debt as stability risks
The central bank says interconnected weaknesses are more likely to crystallise, even as traders price a November rate rise.
Hassett calls on Powell to leave the Federal Reserve board
The president’s chief economic adviser said it is “time for him to move on”, days after the Justice Department declined to reopen a criminal inquiry.
Fed officials cool October hike bets before the September minutes
Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams both signalled no urgency, pulling traders back from an October move.
Justice Department rules out reopening its criminal case against Powell
Attorney General Todd Blanche said the department would not restart its investigation of the former Fed chair over the central bank’s renovation costs.
BIS says most money going into AI firms comes from other AI firms
A new bulletin maps a financing loop in which suppliers bankroll their own customers, as Broadcom and Nvidia extend credit into the build-out.
Fed leadership signals an October pause while its hawks press for more
Odds of an October rate rise roughly halved in a week after the vice chair and the New York Fed president said they wanted more data.
Fed officials steer markets away from an October rate increase
Several policymakers said they want more data before the next hike, while others argued rates still have to go higher.
Justice Department will not reopen its criminal probe of Jerome Powell
Attorney General Todd Blanche said no new investigation is coming, days after the Fed’s own watchdog found no criminal violations.
Fed Officials Pull Markets Back From an October Rate Increase
Two of the central bank’s most senior voices urged patience this week, while regional presidents put a specific size on the tightening they still want.
Fed officials talk markets out of an October rate increase
Two of the Fed’s most senior voices said there is no urgency to move again, and traders cut the odds of a hike this month.
Fed watchdog clears Powell as Trump demands he leave the board
The inspector general found deficiencies but no misconduct in the headquarters renovation; the president called for a resignation and an investigation anyway.
Fed watchdog clears Powell over headquarters renovation as Trump demands he resign
The Federal Reserve’s inspector general found no criminal wrongdoing by former chair Jerome Powell in the central bank’s headquarters project, and the president responded by calling for his resignation and asking the Justice Department to study the report.
October Fed hike odds slip below a coin flip as officials split on timing
Cooler August inflation and a dovish signal from New York Fed President John Williams cut market-implied odds of an October increase, even as three other officials argued more tightening is needed.
Bank of England warns AI debt surge raises risk of a sharper market correction
The central bank’s financial stability record flags AI-related borrowing, government debt and energy prices as interconnected vulnerabilities.
Fed watchdog clears Powell over renovation; Trump demands he resign
The inspector general found deficiencies but no criminal violation, and the president called hours later for Powell to leave the Fed board.
Softer August inflation print knocks October Fed hike odds below a coin flip
The Fed’s preferred price gauge eased to 3.4 percent, and investors cut their bets on a rate increase next month.
Fed officials split over whether another rate increase is needed
New York Fed President John Williams said there is no urgency to move again, while Governor Michael Barr repeated that further increases will likely be needed.
Fed officials tie the AI buildout to inflation that will not come down
Governor Lisa Cook said AI investment is adding price pressure through data centers, energy and construction, delaying the return to the 2% target.
Fed officials say AI spending and oil prices are keeping inflation above target
Governors Cook and Barr and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee each pointed to the same two forces pulling inflation away from the central bank’s goal.
Fed’s Williams says there is no need to rush the next rate increase
The New York Fed president told an audience in Buffalo that the central bank has time to weigh incoming data before moving again.
Fed speakers converge on further rate rises as Cook ties inflation to the AI buildout
A run of hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials has pushed market-implied odds of an October increase sharply higher.
Gold falls about 4 percent to a seven-week low as yields, oil and the dollar climb
Bullion dropped through $4,200 an ounce in its steepest single-day fall in three months as traders raised the odds of an October Federal Reserve rate increase.
Fed’s Cook says the AI build-out and oil will keep inflation pressure on
The governor told an audience in Oakland that productivity gains are unlikely to offset near-term price pressure.
Bank of England signals UK rates may need to rise
Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said building inflation pressure, especially from energy, could force the Bank to move.
Hawkish Fed remarks lift October rate-hike odds and push gold lower
Traders now price a strong chance of another US increase this year as bullion falls below $4,200.
Bank of Japan’s 31-year-high policy rate has not lifted the yen
Japan raised its benchmark rate to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years, and the currency remains under pressure while long yields break records.
Warsh Fed signals higher for longer after September rate increase
The Federal Reserve raised rates this month and officials have since said another increase this year is a reasonable expectation.
Fed officials line up behind another rate increase before year-end
After a quarter-point hike in September, governors and reserve bank presidents said more tightening is likely, and betting markets moved October odds close to 70%.
Bailey says high energy prices make it harder to hold UK rates
The Bank of England governor said there is no question the economy is seeing the direct effects of the energy shock, which markets read as clearing the way for a November rise.
Fed officials line up behind another rate rise and markets move the next hike to October
Two regional Fed presidents and a governor pointed to more tightening, and prediction markets now put an October increase above even odds.
Hammack says the bond selloff is not a verdict on the Fed’s inflation credibility
The Cleveland Fed president told a New York audience that long-term Treasury yields are being driven by growth, debt and the expected rate path, and put the real inflation risk elsewhere.
Fed hawks multiply as three FOMC voters back another rate increase
Officials from New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland and the Board of Governors all argued this week that inflation still requires higher rates.
Schnabel quits the ECB board for the IMF, setting off a contest for Europe’s top monetary jobs
Isabel Schnabel resigned from the European Central Bank’s executive board to become the International Monetary Fund’s financial counsellor, opening a seat and a succession fight.
Fed officials line up behind another rate increase
A Federal Reserve governor and three regional presidents said more tightening is likely needed, and markets moved to price an October move.
Treasury yields hit 19-year highs as the global bond rout deepens
The 10-year note pushed above 5.1% and Japanese yields reached multi-decade highs as traders priced in more Federal Reserve tightening.
Fed’s Barr Says Further Rate Increases Are Likely Needed
A sitting Federal Reserve governor told an audience in Chicago that his base case calls for more tightening, and futures markets moved.
Bank of Japan Lifts Its Policy Rate to a 31-Year High, and the Yen Keeps Falling
A quarter-point increase to 1.25 per cent came with two dissenting votes and no explicit hawkish guidance, leaving the currency close to its weakest levels of the year.
Fed Officials Line Up Behind More Rate Hikes as the Dollar Hits an Eight-Week High
A run of hawkish remarks from regional Federal Reserve presidents has pushed traders to price further tightening, lifting the dollar to its strongest level since late July.
Fed Officials Line Up Behind Further Hikes as Inflation Broadens
Three regional Federal Reserve presidents argued this week that price pressures now extend well beyond energy, and that one rate increase may not be enough.
Three Fed presidents make the case for more rate increases
St. Louis, Chicago and Minneapolis policymakers all argued on the same day that inflation is still too high to stop tightening.
Four Fed Officials Make the Public Case for More Rate Hikes
Policymakers in Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis and Boston all argued that last week’s quarter-point increase will not be the end of the tightening.
The Rate-Hike Cycle Turns Global as the Bank of Japan Moves
Japan’s central bank lifted its policy rate to the highest level since 1995 on a split vote, days after the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank tightened.
ECB switches on Pontes, settling tokenised trades in central bank money
Europe’s central bank opened a link between its payment system and blockchain-based markets, and said it will put a small portion of its own funds into tokenised securities.
Three central banks tighten in eight days as Fed’s Kashkari calls inflation broad-based
The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan all raised rates inside eight days, and a Fed policymaker says price pressure now runs well beyond energy.
Kashkari says inflation now reaches all corners of the US economy
The Minneapolis Fed president said price pressure has spread well beyond the oil shock, days after the Federal Reserve raised rates again.
Bank of Japan lifts rates to a 31-year high and the yen falls anyway
A quarter-point increase took Japan’s policy rate to its highest level since 1995, but cautious guidance sent the currency down rather than up.
Bank of Japan lifts its rate to a 31-year high
The last big central bank anchored near zero has joined the tightening cycle, and the yen weakened anyway.
Banks split on whether the Bank of England is forced into a November rate rise
Barclays and UBS expect a hike as soon as November; ING is sticking with a hold, and markets price an 80% chance of a move.
Bank of England holds rates and rewrites its bond-sale programme
Rates stayed at 3.75% for a sixth meeting in a row, but the overhaul of quantitative tightening was the decision that moved gilt yields.
Bank of Japan lifts rates to a 31-year high, and the yen falls anyway
The BOJ raised its benchmark rate to 1.25% in a 7-2 vote and signalled more increases, but the two dissents were enough to send the currency lower.
Fed raises rates a quarter point as Warsh breaks with Trump
The Federal Reserve lifted its target range to between 3.75% and 4% in a unanimous vote, its first increase in three years.
Bank of England holds at 3.75%, signals a rise, and stops selling long gilts
Britain kept rates on hold in a split vote while rewriting the plan that governs how much long-dated debt it sells back to the market.
Fed raises rates a quarter point in Warsh’s first move, and Trump demands 1%
The Federal Reserve’s first increase in three years was unanimous, and the new chairman hinted it may not be the last.
Bank of England holds at 3.75 per cent, breaking with the Fed and the ECB
A sixth consecutive hold, paired with a warning that rates are likely to rise if high energy prices persist.
Bank of Japan set to lift its policy rate to a 31-year high as the yen slides
Tokyo is expected to move to 1.25 per cent on Friday, a day after a hawkish Fed pushed the yen past the 156 level.
Fed raises rates for the first time since 2023, and says it is not done
A unanimous quarter-point increase takes the target range to 3.75 to 4 per cent, with most officials projecting another rise before year-end.
A unanimous vote gives Warsh cover against the White House
The Fed chairman raised rates over the president’s stated wishes, and every voter on the committee went with him.
Dollar and short yields jump after the hike, gold slips
The front end of the curve repriced immediately while the long end barely moved, and the dollar firmed against the euro.
Fed lifts rates for the first time in three years
The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range by a quarter point and its new projections point to one more increase before the year is out.
Bank of Japan expected to lift its policy rate to a 31-year high
A quarter-point move on Friday would take Japanese borrowing costs to their highest level in 31 years.
Fed set to raise rates for the first time under Warsh
Markets are pricing a quarter-point increase that would put the new Fed chair at odds with the White House.
Fed Extends Its Pause on Reserve-Management Treasury Bill Purchases
The central bank will make no reserve-management purchases for a second straight month, citing ample reserves, while continuing reinvestment operations.
Bank of Japan Expected to Hike as Japanese Bond Yields Hit a 30-Year High
A quarter-point move on Friday would take the policy rate to its highest level in three decades, with the yen rally and the long end of the global bond market both hanging on the decision.
Fed Set to Raise Rates for the First Time Under Warsh
Markets have all but priced a quarter-point increase on Wednesday, a decision that would put the new Fed chair at odds with the president who chose him.
Fed opens its meeting with a rate rise priced in
Markets go into the September policy meeting expecting the first increase in the federal funds rate in three years, and the first under chair Kevin Warsh.
Three central banks, one week, and a tightening bias everywhere
The Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank all face markets that have moved their expectations toward higher rates as energy prices climb.
Bank of England set to hold and slow its gilt sales as banks pencil in hikes
Surging oil is pulling the Bank towards tightening while record borrowing costs push it to ease off quantitative tightening.
Bank of Japan set to lift rates to their highest since 1995
A quarter-point move on Friday is fully priced, leaving the yen and the ten-year government bond to carry whatever surprise remains.
Fed heads for its first hike under Warsh as Trump demands the world’s lowest rates
Markets are pricing an increase at this week’s meeting, the first of Kevin Warsh’s tenure, while the president calls publicly for the lowest rates anywhere.
Bank of England expected to hold as a hawkish rebellion builds on its committee
Rate-setters meet on Thursday after a bond sell-off that has already pushed UK borrowing costs sharply higher.
Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates as speculators turn net long the yen
Futures positioning flipped bullish on the yen for the first time since February, days before a Bank of Japan meeting markets expect to deliver another increase.
Investors expect a Fed rate rise this week and are pricing more after it
Futures markets have all but settled the Wednesday decision; the open question is how many increases follow, and Chair Kevin Warsh has said little to guide the answer.
Lagarde says the euro area inflation shock will last longer than expected
The European Central Bank president signalled that energy-driven inflation is not fading quickly, days after the bank raised rates for the second time since the Iran war began.
Traders price a September hike at 85% as Warsh faces his first test
Futures pricing points to the first US rate increase since 2023, and former officials warn that the Fed rarely stops at one.
Bank of Japan seen raising rates to 1.25% in next week’s bigger shock
Markets have rapidly repriced the odds that Japan’s central bank tightens again, days after the Federal Reserve’s own decision.
August inflation lands at 3.4% and rate-hike odds jump to 90%
Consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in August, and futures markets now put the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week at 90%.
ECB raises rates a quarter point and lifts both inflation and growth forecasts
The European Central Bank delivered its second quarter-point increase of the year, taking the deposit rate to 2.5% as oil above $100 a barrel feeds euro-area inflation.
Producer Prices Accelerate and Leave a September Fed Hike in Play
August wholesale inflation matched forecasts but accelerated from July, and rate-hike odds firmed ahead of Friday’s consumer price report.
UK Gilt Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs as the Bank of England Prepares to Hold
Ten-year gilts reached their highest level since 2007 and 30-year yields their highest since 1998, days before a meeting at which no change is expected.
BIS Chief Says Debt-Financed AI Spending Is Now a Stability Risk
Pablo Hernandez de Cos told central bankers that the financing behind the AI build-out, not the technology itself, is what threatens financial stability.
Reuters Poll Puts a Bank of Japan Rate Rise to 1.25% This Month
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect a hike on 18 September and a faster path to 1.75%, with the yen already at a seven-month high.
Bessent Tells Yen Traders ‘I Am the House Now’
The Treasury secretary’s pressure campaign has pushed the dollar toward a seven-month low against the yen and revived talk of a carry-trade unwind.
The Fed’s September Call Comes Down to Two Inflation Prints
Officials are openly split, and forecasters say the decision could hinge on a few hundredths of a percentage point in the next two days of data.
ECB set to raise rates as oil, not domestic demand, drives euro pricing
A quarter-point increase on Thursday is priced at near certainty, with Brent closing on $100 a barrel.
Markets price better-than-even odds of a Fed hike next week
September meeting odds moved above 50% as Kevin Warsh’s first big decision approaches with inflation still above target.
ECB set to raise rates again on 10 September as eurozone inflation reaccelerates
A second increase this year is fully priced, and the guidance that follows will decide how European bonds and the euro trade from here.
UK pays its highest 30-year borrowing cost since 1998 as Bailey resists a rate-hike script
The governor told MPs there is no secret plan for unconditional increases, on the same day a gilt auction cleared at a record yield.
Yen breaks through 155 as markets price a Bank of Japan rate rise
The currency reached its strongest level in months on hawkish policy bets, and the carry trade that funded global risk positions is unwinding with it.
Fed Hike Odds Sit Near 60% as August Inflation Data Approaches
Traders are pricing an increase at next week’s meeting after a stronger-than-expected August payrolls report, with Fed officials publicly split.
Yen Hits a Seven-Month High as BOJ Bets Unwind the Carry Trade
A rally in the Japanese yen ahead of an expected Bank of Japan rate increase is upending the largest carry-trade build-up in three decades.
Strong August payrolls put a September Fed hike back in play
A payroll print of 162,000 has revived rate-hike expectations, even as the Fed’s own officials pull in different directions ahead of the August CPI report.
Yen hits a seven-month high as Bank of Japan hike bets and US pressure combine
Japan’s currency reached its strongest level in seven months on Monday, driven by expectations of faster tightening and by open pressure from Washington on the yen’s valuation.
Bank of Japan hike bets firm as the yen reaches a six-month high
Markets price a 75% chance the Bank of Japan raises rates on 18 September, and the yen has recovered to its strongest level since late February.
ECB set to hike again on Thursday as the oil shock feeds euro-area inflation
Markets fully price a quarter-point increase from the European Central Bank this week, with futures already leaning toward another move by December.
US payrolls beat by a wide margin, pushing the Fed toward a September hike
August employment came in at 162,000 against a forecast of 56,000, sharpening a debate inside the Federal Reserve that a hot CPI print later this week could settle.
ECB set to raise rates again on 10 September
A second increase would take the deposit rate to 2.50 per cent and confirm the euro area as the most hawkish of the major central banks.
The Fed’s September call rests on one inflation report
Traders are pricing better than even odds of a US rate rise on 15 to 16 September while the Fed’s own officials disagree in public.