The quarter-point hike was expected, but a dissent in favour of more tightening was not, and mortgage, savings and tax rates are already moving.
Musalem says bringing inflation to 2% is a ‘necessary condition’ and Goolsbee calls it the economy’s ‘biggest problem’, while an AI selloff is the main argument against a move.
The European Central Bank president told a Japanese newspaper that euro-area inflation will remain elevated over the coming quarters, while one of the two candidates to replace her warned about energy-driven price risks.
The Bank of Japan governor said underlying inflation should stay near target, that the bank is watching other central banks closely, and that AI has given Japan a positive demand shock.
The IMF chief said a loss of momentum in AI investment would need to be factored into rate decisions, as one estimate put the cost of a slump at 1.1% of 2028 global output.
Both sides sought a halt in the litigation as Cook, now represented by Abbe Lowell, presses for clarity ahead of any White House hearing.
The San Francisco Fed president, a voter on rate policy next year, welcomed the strong October jobs report and said underlying inflation is too stubborn.
Nominations closed on Friday with the former Dutch central bank chief and Pablo Hernández de Cos of the BIS as the only candidates to succeed Christine Lagarde.
John Williams described a remarkably resilient economy and a stable labor market while saying the Fed should collect more information before setting its next move.
Madrid formally put forward the former Bank of Spain governor, widely seen as a leading candidate, as the race for the top job at the European Central Bank entered a new phase.
The central bank and Ottawa kept two per cent inflation at the core of the bank’s mandate in a new five-year framework, weeks after an October rate hike.
The Cleveland Fed president, who dissented in favor of a hike last week, said rates must become restrictive and argued for smaller, more frequent moves.
The Monetary Policy Committee lifted Bank Rate by a quarter point on an 8-1 vote, published hawkish inflation forecasts and sent sterling and gilt yields higher.
Minutes of the Bank of Japan’s September meeting, when it lifted rates to a 31-year high of 1.25%, strengthened the yen and fed expectations of further tightening.
The panel investigating allegations against Cook delayed its hearing as a Democratic Senate adds a new check on the White House’s pressure on the Federal Reserve.
The new majority is likely to block nominees it sees as too close to the White House, though risks to Fed independence remain.
The new language may open the door to more auctions of shorter-dated debt, while dealers look to 2027 for possible cuts at the long end.
Energy costs pushed consumer prices higher for an eighth month above target, keeping a December rate increase in view at the European Central Bank’s final meeting of the year.
The German central bank chief joins a chorus of ECB policymakers pointing to a further increase next month as the inflation outlook worsens.
Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos and the Netherlands’ Klaas Knot lead the race, each with the backing of his government.
Beijing is now restricting the supply of new shares, while the central bank governor pledges more action after earlier support measures failed to put a floor under prices.
Australia’s central bank lifted rates to the highest level since 2008 after revising up its inflation outlook, while major peers stayed on hold.
October’s reading is above the Swiss National Bank’s own forecast and the midpoint of its target range for the first time since August 2024.
Banks cut their growth forecasts and economists warn of a significant and rising risk of recession as the central bank weighs a fifth increase.
The bank cites higher energy prices and strong data, while the central bank itself may push back on market bets for more.
Treasuries headed for a monthly gain as tech giants stumbled, even as markets priced high odds that the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan all raise rates in December.
The bank’s regional agents see little sign of the energy shock feeding into wages, as markets look for its first rate move of the year on Thursday.
Three regional Federal Reserve presidents signalled on Friday that further rate increases are coming, differing mainly on how fast they should arrive.
Nearly 14 years after setting its price target, the central bank says underlying inflation is consistent with 2%, while Governor Kazuo Ueda points to strong prospects for another rate rise in December.
The central bank’s profit for the first nine months of the year reached 44.2 billion francs, helped by a weaker franc that lifted the value of its foreign holdings.
Pablo Hernandez de Cos, who runs the Bank for International Settlements, is the frontrunner, and both candidates have already begun reaching out.
The White House economic adviser’s remarks came as the S&P 500 fell 0.3% at midday on worries about Alphabet’s AI spending.
The announcement opens a succession race led by Pablo Hernández de Cos and Klaas Knot while France’s bond market is in turmoil and energy prices surge.
Kristalina Georgieva said Li will leave at the end of his term on 30 November, with Liao due to take office on 1 December.
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged in a 10-2 vote, its chairman declined to signal December, and he set out changes to the meeting calendar and a review of the balance sheet.
The central bank lifted its overnight rate target by 25 basis points to 2.5%, citing upside inflation risks from higher energy prices, and raised its growth forecasts.
Most economists expect a quarter-point increase on Wednesday, while hedge funds have added to bets against the Canadian dollar ahead of the decision.
Europe’s stock markets dipped on the results but recovered as other earnings and lower oil lifted sentiment ahead of three central bank decisions.
The ECB’s quarterly lending survey points to rate rises cooling activity, with mortgage demand falling and more loan applications rejected.
A three-year high in the Bank of Japan’s trend inflation measure and a 3.7% rise in services prices add to the case for another rate rise.
The central bank is expected to hold on Friday while signalling victory over its 2% inflation goal, as a major life insurer pencils in increases in December and April.
Firmer inflation argues for a move, but officials’ calls for patience and the approaching midterms make a rate increase this week unlikely.
Canada’s central bank decides on Wednesday, the same day the Federal Reserve is expected to hold, in a week when the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan are set for a hawkish pause.
The central bank’s October financial system report flags rising AI-related risks a week before a policy meeting at which a hold is widely expected.
Markets see little chance of a move at Chair Kevin Warsh’s next meeting, but traders and economists are split on how firmly a December increase is priced.
The September reading keeps a December rate rise in play, although the central bank is expected to hold at next week’s meeting.
Statistics Canada’s industrial price index rose 14.5% from a year earlier as markets put the chance of a quarter-point Bank of Canada hike next week at about 75%.
Minutes of the September assessment show the Swiss National Bank saw no need to raise its readiness to intervene, and expects energy prices to drive global inflation.
The BOJ is expected to keep rates steady at its 29 to 30 October meeting, while strong loan demand and an ambitious wage target keep further hikes in view.
French yields stayed above 5% for a second day, with one gauge of French bond risk at a 15-year high, as policymakers signal no quick rescue from the European Central Bank.
The plan arrives as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh seeks a smaller balance sheet, and it has already drawn objections from officials who defend the current framework.
The central bank’s staff credited fiscal support and an AI boom with sustaining growth, while a Governing Council member said rates may have to rise further.
A warning from Deputy Governor Hauser lifted the Australian dollar and reopened a rate decision that bond traders had begun to discount.
Consumer prices rose faster than expected, to an 11-month high, a week before a Budget in which the chancellor has already ruled out a higher capital gains tax.
Ninety-four of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect a pause next week and a rise before year-end, while the chair keeps his own counsel.
Businesses blamed energy prices and new tariffs for higher expected inflation, though some economists say softer consumer prices argue for a hold.
Wage growth excluding bonuses rose to 3.7% in the three months to August, and sterling gained as traders priced a rate increase next month.
Policymakers are starting to name data-centre construction as a source of price pressure days before the October rate decision.
Monday’s order list let the removal of a National Labor Relations Board member stand while the Court took up home distilling and school admissions and refused the September 11 plea deals.
The last price reading before the Bank of Canada’s 28 October decision put inflation back above the top of its target band.
Kazuo Ueda pointed to strong global AI demand as an added source of price pressure days before the bank’s policy meeting.
Nearly 2,400 arrests after Saturday’s protests lifted euro-area yields and pared the odds of a rate increase this month.
UK inflation lands on Wednesday, traders price a November rate rise as near certain, and a reported bet against sterling has reached seven billion pounds.
Austan Goolsbee called September’s inflation reading discouraging and Beth Hammack said rates may have to go higher, against a market that has nearly written the move off.
The Bank of England governor said signs of second-round inflation were limited, days before the release markets expect to settle the decision.
Canada’s governor said persistently high crude and petroleum prices will push the central bank’s quarterly projection higher this month.
Kristalina Georgieva said the annual meetings were marked by optimism and worry, while delegates left the room as Moscow’s minister spoke.
The ECB president told the IMF meetings that higher market borrowing costs are curbing growth and will ultimately curb prices, while the Bundesbank chief would not rule out another hike.
The Fund says the Bank of Japan is doing the right thing and sees one more hike toward neutral, but wants it ready to move faster if inflation overshoots.
The Fed chairman told the IMF meetings that the artificial intelligence investment surge is a shock central bankers have to recognise, and announced a task force hearing on productivity and jobs.
At the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, policymakers pushed back on market pricing for easier policy and tied the pressure on rates to the cash demands of the AI build-out.
Japan’s central bank governor struck a hawkish tone in Bangkok, and brokerages now expect the next increase in December with more tightening to follow.
Economists polled before Friday’s release expected core prices to pass the central bank’s 2% goal, as Governor Kazuo Ueda said the timing of the next move would turn on the Middle East, AI demand and the exchange rate.
The Fed chair told the IMF meeting in Bangkok that the world had broadly conformed to the central bank’s expectations, declined to steer expectations for this month’s decision, and moved markets with his remarks on artificial intelligence instead.
The forum could appoint the central bank president as early as November, which would mean an early departure from Frankfurt.
Mary Daly and Michelle Bowman both said no rate rise was urgent, and the currency and bond markets priced the message rather than the inflation data.
Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack and other officials have questioned the chairman’s drive to reduce the Federal Reserve’s communication, days before he speaks at the IMF meetings with inflation running hot.
Governing Council members signalled that euro-area price pressures may require more tightening, even as the central bank declined to step into France’s fiscal crisis.
A hotter-than-expected September inflation reading knocked equities and Treasuries, lifted the dollar and put another Federal Reserve increase back in play this month.
The Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision said inflation remains above target but that she feels no urgency to tighten policy further.
A lawyer for the Federal Reserve governor said she is not available for the hearing the president ordered over mortgage fraud allegations.
The Bank of England’s chief economist, who has voted for higher rates, said he is now more sceptical that four increases are needed.
Policymakers are reluctant to move twice in a row even as households’ inflation expectations stay high and wholesale prices keep rising.
The Chicago Fed president recast the AI investment boom as a source of broad overheating rather than a temporary supply shock.
The New York Fed president’s remarks lifted stocks off their lows and pulled Treasury yields down, but outlets differ on whether he ruled out further increases next year.
The fund raised its 2026 forecast for the UK to 1.3% while warning that inflation will rise more sharply than it previously thought.
The Fed governor also called the administration a threat to the central bank’s independence while saying inflation expectations remain anchored.
The Cleveland Fed president said rates need to be higher and that she prefers to get there without large single moves.
Kristalina Georgieva told the fund’s annual meetings in Bangkok that AI investment is keeping global growth at about 3%, and in the same remarks called the technology’s effect on jobs and tax bases a slow-moving tsunami.
The IMF’s managing director told delegates that winter is coming as the annual meetings began, and the Financial Times reported the Fund and the World Bank will warn central bankers of a gathering storm.
Prediction-market pricing for the 28 October meeting has collapsed after New York Fed president John Williams counselled patience, while three other officials argue rates are still not high enough.
The minutes show policymakers still see inflation stuck above target, and governors are not speaking with one voice about how fast to go.
The president has named a committee of inquiry to examine mortgage-fraud allegations against the Fed governor, and her lawyers say there is no basis to remove her.
A three-person committee will examine mortgage-fraud allegations against the Fed governor, who has been ordered to a hearing on 5 November.
The governor said credible budget policy is needed more than ever as bond markets come under pressure, and UK medium-term borrowing costs reached a 19-year high.
The St. Louis Fed president put a tentative timeline on further tightening, saying inflation is elevated and financial conditions remain accommodative.
The central bank’s regional report found price pressure broadening as the prime minister ruled out reflationary policy.
Finance ministers and the ECB were set to tell France on Thursday that a budget is what would calm its bond market.
The governor said additional increases will likely be needed, with flexibility about when they come.
The record of the September meeting points to a further increase without committing the Federal Reserve to moving in October.
The one-year reading in the New York Fed’s September survey is the highest since May 2023.
The San Francisco Fed president said further tightening depends on how long the AI, tariff and energy shocks last.
Kristalina Georgieva linked the energy shock, record borrowing and the AI boom into a single warning about global growth.
The governor said it is becoming more important to keep underlying inflation anchored around the target, leaving further rate increases on the table without committing to October.
US employers added 29,000 jobs in September, weaker than expected, and traders cut the odds of another rate increase this month.
Pablo Hernandez de Cos told an audience in Vienna that public debt, non-bank investors and faster digital risks all complicate central bank crisis response.
Japan’s prime minister pledged fiscal discipline in a policy speech, with funding costs rising as the Bank of Japan raises rates and tapers bond buying.
A currency falling on fiscal and political news rather than on rate expectations leaves the European Central Bank with an awkward choice.
The administration’s top economic adviser called on the former chair to resign days after the Fed’s internal watchdog reported on its headquarters overrun.
The central bank says interconnected weaknesses are more likely to crystallise, even as traders price a November rate rise.
The president’s chief economic adviser said it is “time for him to move on”, days after the Justice Department declined to reopen a criminal inquiry.
Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams both signalled no urgency, pulling traders back from an October move.
Attorney General Todd Blanche said the department would not restart its investigation of the former Fed chair over the central bank’s renovation costs.
A new bulletin maps a financing loop in which suppliers bankroll their own customers, as Broadcom and Nvidia extend credit into the build-out.
Odds of an October rate rise roughly halved in a week after the vice chair and the New York Fed president said they wanted more data.
Several policymakers said they want more data before the next hike, while others argued rates still have to go higher.
Attorney General Todd Blanche said no new investigation is coming, days after the Fed’s own watchdog found no criminal violations.
Two of the central bank’s most senior voices urged patience this week, while regional presidents put a specific size on the tightening they still want.
Two of the Fed’s most senior voices said there is no urgency to move again, and traders cut the odds of a hike this month.
The inspector general found deficiencies but no misconduct in the headquarters renovation; the president called for a resignation and an investigation anyway.
The Federal Reserve’s inspector general found no criminal wrongdoing by former chair Jerome Powell in the central bank’s headquarters project, and the president responded by calling for his resignation and asking the Justice Department to study the report.
Cooler August inflation and a dovish signal from New York Fed President John Williams cut market-implied odds of an October increase, even as three other officials argued more tightening is needed.
The central bank’s financial stability record flags AI-related borrowing, government debt and energy prices as interconnected vulnerabilities.
The inspector general found deficiencies but no criminal violation, and the president called hours later for Powell to leave the Fed board.
The Fed’s preferred price gauge eased to 3.4 percent, and investors cut their bets on a rate increase next month.
New York Fed President John Williams said there is no urgency to move again, while Governor Michael Barr repeated that further increases will likely be needed.
Governor Lisa Cook said AI investment is adding price pressure through data centers, energy and construction, delaying the return to the 2% target.
Governors Cook and Barr and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee each pointed to the same two forces pulling inflation away from the central bank’s goal.
The New York Fed president told an audience in Buffalo that the central bank has time to weigh incoming data before moving again.
A run of hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials has pushed market-implied odds of an October increase sharply higher.
Bullion dropped through $4,200 an ounce in its steepest single-day fall in three months as traders raised the odds of an October Federal Reserve rate increase.
The governor told an audience in Oakland that productivity gains are unlikely to offset near-term price pressure.
Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said building inflation pressure, especially from energy, could force the Bank to move.
Traders now price a strong chance of another US increase this year as bullion falls below $4,200.
Japan raised its benchmark rate to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years, and the currency remains under pressure while long yields break records.
The Federal Reserve raised rates this month and officials have since said another increase this year is a reasonable expectation.
After a quarter-point hike in September, governors and reserve bank presidents said more tightening is likely, and betting markets moved October odds close to 70%.
The Bank of England governor said there is no question the economy is seeing the direct effects of the energy shock, which markets read as clearing the way for a November rise.
Two regional Fed presidents and a governor pointed to more tightening, and prediction markets now put an October increase above even odds.
The Cleveland Fed president told a New York audience that long-term Treasury yields are being driven by growth, debt and the expected rate path, and put the real inflation risk elsewhere.
Officials from New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland and the Board of Governors all argued this week that inflation still requires higher rates.
Isabel Schnabel resigned from the European Central Bank’s executive board to become the International Monetary Fund’s financial counsellor, opening a seat and a succession fight.
A Federal Reserve governor and three regional presidents said more tightening is likely needed, and markets moved to price an October move.
The 10-year note pushed above 5.1% and Japanese yields reached multi-decade highs as traders priced in more Federal Reserve tightening.
A sitting Federal Reserve governor told an audience in Chicago that his base case calls for more tightening, and futures markets moved.
A quarter-point increase to 1.25 per cent came with two dissenting votes and no explicit hawkish guidance, leaving the currency close to its weakest levels of the year.
A run of hawkish remarks from regional Federal Reserve presidents has pushed traders to price further tightening, lifting the dollar to its strongest level since late July.
Three regional Federal Reserve presidents argued this week that price pressures now extend well beyond energy, and that one rate increase may not be enough.
St. Louis, Chicago and Minneapolis policymakers all argued on the same day that inflation is still too high to stop tightening.
Policymakers in Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis and Boston all argued that last week’s quarter-point increase will not be the end of the tightening.
Japan’s central bank lifted its policy rate to the highest level since 1995 on a split vote, days after the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank tightened.
Europe’s central bank opened a link between its payment system and blockchain-based markets, and said it will put a small portion of its own funds into tokenised securities.
The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan all raised rates inside eight days, and a Fed policymaker says price pressure now runs well beyond energy.
The Minneapolis Fed president said price pressure has spread well beyond the oil shock, days after the Federal Reserve raised rates again.
A quarter-point increase took Japan’s policy rate to its highest level since 1995, but cautious guidance sent the currency down rather than up.
The last big central bank anchored near zero has joined the tightening cycle, and the yen weakened anyway.
Barclays and UBS expect a hike as soon as November; ING is sticking with a hold, and markets price an 80% chance of a move.
Rates stayed at 3.75% for a sixth meeting in a row, but the overhaul of quantitative tightening was the decision that moved gilt yields.
The BOJ raised its benchmark rate to 1.25% in a 7-2 vote and signalled more increases, but the two dissents were enough to send the currency lower.
The Federal Reserve lifted its target range to between 3.75% and 4% in a unanimous vote, its first increase in three years.
Britain kept rates on hold in a split vote while rewriting the plan that governs how much long-dated debt it sells back to the market.
The Federal Reserve’s first increase in three years was unanimous, and the new chairman hinted it may not be the last.
A sixth consecutive hold, paired with a warning that rates are likely to rise if high energy prices persist.
Tokyo is expected to move to 1.25 per cent on Friday, a day after a hawkish Fed pushed the yen past the 156 level.
A unanimous quarter-point increase takes the target range to 3.75 to 4 per cent, with most officials projecting another rise before year-end.
The Fed chairman raised rates over the president’s stated wishes, and every voter on the committee went with him.
The front end of the curve repriced immediately while the long end barely moved, and the dollar firmed against the euro.
The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range by a quarter point and its new projections point to one more increase before the year is out.
A quarter-point move on Friday would take Japanese borrowing costs to their highest level in 31 years.
Markets are pricing a quarter-point increase that would put the new Fed chair at odds with the White House.
The central bank will make no reserve-management purchases for a second straight month, citing ample reserves, while continuing reinvestment operations.
A quarter-point move on Friday would take the policy rate to its highest level in three decades, with the yen rally and the long end of the global bond market both hanging on the decision.
Markets have all but priced a quarter-point increase on Wednesday, a decision that would put the new Fed chair at odds with the president who chose him.
Markets go into the September policy meeting expecting the first increase in the federal funds rate in three years, and the first under chair Kevin Warsh.
The Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank all face markets that have moved their expectations toward higher rates as energy prices climb.
Surging oil is pulling the Bank towards tightening while record borrowing costs push it to ease off quantitative tightening.
A quarter-point move on Friday is fully priced, leaving the yen and the ten-year government bond to carry whatever surprise remains.
Markets are pricing an increase at this week’s meeting, the first of Kevin Warsh’s tenure, while the president calls publicly for the lowest rates anywhere.
Rate-setters meet on Thursday after a bond sell-off that has already pushed UK borrowing costs sharply higher.
Futures positioning flipped bullish on the yen for the first time since February, days before a Bank of Japan meeting markets expect to deliver another increase.
Futures markets have all but settled the Wednesday decision; the open question is how many increases follow, and Chair Kevin Warsh has said little to guide the answer.
The European Central Bank president signalled that energy-driven inflation is not fading quickly, days after the bank raised rates for the second time since the Iran war began.
Futures pricing points to the first US rate increase since 2023, and former officials warn that the Fed rarely stops at one.
Markets have rapidly repriced the odds that Japan’s central bank tightens again, days after the Federal Reserve’s own decision.
Consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in August, and futures markets now put the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week at 90%.
The European Central Bank delivered its second quarter-point increase of the year, taking the deposit rate to 2.5% as oil above $100 a barrel feeds euro-area inflation.
August wholesale inflation matched forecasts but accelerated from July, and rate-hike odds firmed ahead of Friday’s consumer price report.
Ten-year gilts reached their highest level since 2007 and 30-year yields their highest since 1998, days before a meeting at which no change is expected.
Pablo Hernandez de Cos told central bankers that the financing behind the AI build-out, not the technology itself, is what threatens financial stability.
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect a hike on 18 September and a faster path to 1.75%, with the yen already at a seven-month high.
The Treasury secretary’s pressure campaign has pushed the dollar toward a seven-month low against the yen and revived talk of a carry-trade unwind.
Officials are openly split, and forecasters say the decision could hinge on a few hundredths of a percentage point in the next two days of data.
A quarter-point increase on Thursday is priced at near certainty, with Brent closing on $100 a barrel.
September meeting odds moved above 50% as Kevin Warsh’s first big decision approaches with inflation still above target.
A second increase this year is fully priced, and the guidance that follows will decide how European bonds and the euro trade from here.
The governor told MPs there is no secret plan for unconditional increases, on the same day a gilt auction cleared at a record yield.
The currency reached its strongest level in months on hawkish policy bets, and the carry trade that funded global risk positions is unwinding with it.
Traders are pricing an increase at next week’s meeting after a stronger-than-expected August payrolls report, with Fed officials publicly split.
A rally in the Japanese yen ahead of an expected Bank of Japan rate increase is upending the largest carry-trade build-up in three decades.
A payroll print of 162,000 has revived rate-hike expectations, even as the Fed’s own officials pull in different directions ahead of the August CPI report.
Japan’s currency reached its strongest level in seven months on Monday, driven by expectations of faster tightening and by open pressure from Washington on the yen’s valuation.
Markets price a 75% chance the Bank of Japan raises rates on 18 September, and the yen has recovered to its strongest level since late February.
Markets fully price a quarter-point increase from the European Central Bank this week, with futures already leaning toward another move by December.
August employment came in at 162,000 against a forecast of 56,000, sharpening a debate inside the Federal Reserve that a hot CPI print later this week could settle.
A second increase would take the deposit rate to 2.50 per cent and confirm the euro area as the most hawkish of the major central banks.
Traders are pricing better than even odds of a US rate rise on 15 to 16 September while the Fed’s own officials disagree in public.