Treasury yields hit 19-year highs as the global bond rout deepens

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note reached a 19-year high on Wednesday as a broad selloff ran through the bond market¹. The note pushed above 5.1%, the first time it had traded there in 19 years^3,4. By Thursday morning the 10-year stood at 5.13% and the 30-year bond rose as high as 5.44%, its highest since 2004⁶. Wednesday’s gain of roughly 0.15 percentage point on the 10-year was the biggest since April 2025, when the tariff announcement rocked markets⁶.

The move was not confined to Washington². Japanese government bond yields climbed to multi-decade highs as the global rout deepened¹², after Japan’s benchmark borrowing costs had already reached their highest level in three decades earlier this month². The sell-off spread while oil held above $100 a barrel¹¹.

Why it matters to investors

Traders framed the repricing as a bet on further Federal Reserve tightening rather than a technical accident⁵. The surge followed strong manufacturing data, and more hot economic readings boosted expectations of further interest rate hikes⁷. Investors also pointed to inflation, government deficits and booming spending on artificial intelligence as forces behind the move⁵.

Supply pressure was visible in the primary market. The Treasury sold $70 billion of five-year notes at a high yield of 5.033%¹³, and a weak five-year auction added to the selloff, with one analyst saying it had to be called a poor auction on pricing⁸. Five-year yields exceeded 5% for the first time since 2007¹⁰. “Pressure is starting to build up on the short end of the yield curve,” said Christophe Boucher, chief investment officer of ABN AMRO Investment Solutions¹⁰.

What to watch

The selloff cuts against the Treasury’s stated intentions. A strategist at Spartan Capital said markets were sending a message to Secretary Scott Bessent that his plan to suppress yields is not likely to work¹. The Financial Post linked the slide to Bessent’s vision of yield-curve control, or influencing rates across different maturities⁹.

Two things will determine how far the repricing runs. The first is whether upcoming auctions clear without the concession seen in the five-year sale^8,13. The second is Japan, where yields at multi-decade highs remove a long-standing source of demand for higher-yielding foreign bonds^2,12. US bond-market losses have already pushed yields to two-decade highs⁹.