OPEC+ holds October output steady as price forecasts split from $40 to $120

Seven OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, decided at a virtual meeting on September 6 to keep oil output targets unchanged for October¹. The seven agreed to hold October crude production quotas at September levels⁶, a decision reported as a pause in the group’s output increases² and as keeping the October quota unchanged from September³.

The group said the countries would continue to meet every month to review market conditions and the outlook⁴. The next monthly meeting is set for October 4⁸, when the seven countries will take up production again^3,5. OPEC+ is expected to review market conditions and production levels at that meeting⁷, and the seven core members remain the forum for these decisions⁹.

The forecasts do not agree

One coverage framing notes that the hold comes as Hormuz disruption limits the group’s sway over the market⁸. Prices are firm: crude rebounded to $97 a barrel amid supply chain disruption concerns at the Strait of Hormuz¹⁰, and oil extended gains as US and Iranian strikes heightened supply disruption concerns¹¹.

Forecasts point in opposite directions. Goldman Sachs flagged the risk of $120 oil if Middle East ship attacks intensify¹³, with the bank’s Daan Struyven saying events of the last few days suggest the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying is an important one¹². Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has predicted oil could sink to $40 to $50 a barrel after the Iran war ends, and BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink said prices could fall below $50 a barrel if the war concludes¹⁴.

Why it matters to investors

A cartel that declines to add barrels into a war-driven price spike is signalling something about its own spare capacity, its read on demand, or both. The seven members chose a pause rather than another increase⁶, and set the next review only weeks out⁸.

That leaves the near-term oil path to geopolitics rather than to quota policy. The public forecast band now runs from $40¹⁴ to $120¹³, a spread wide enough that positioning across energy equities, transport costs and inflation expectations rests on which end of it holds. The monthly cadence of OPEC+ meetings means the group can respond quickly if the picture changes^4,7. The composition of the decision-making group is unchanged, with the same seven core members meeting virtually^1,2,9.