Goldman lifts its oil forecasts as Middle East shipping risk persists into 2027

Goldman Sachs lifted its 2027 oil outlook as Middle East shipping risks persist⁴. Strategists led by Daan Struyven now forecast Brent at 85 dollars a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at 80 dollars for December 2026, followed by respective prices of 80 dollars and 75 dollars⁴. Struyven, co-head of Goldman Sachs global commodities, said markets are increasingly pricing a prolonged Middle East conflict³, and the bank’s view is that the supply shock may remain into 2027³.

Spot prices have been climbing back toward those levels and past them. United States crude closed above 102 dollars a barrel amid fighting in the Persian Gulf⁵, and net long positions in West Texas Intermediate hit a twenty-week high as prices climbed back above 100 dollars⁶. Oil has jumped beyond 80 dollars a barrel, with warnings that it could go further⁷.

Why it matters to investors

Oil has stopped being a sector story and become the main macro input. The Economic Times described the oil surge as fanning global inflation⁸, and the BBC reported that oil prices are creating a considerable worry as winter approaches, with the United States and Iran conflict driving up heating oil and fuel costs¹.

The sources do not agree on direction. Econbrowser noted that Houthi forces have expanded control of the Red Sea side of Yemen, threatening remaining Saudi oil exports, and yet prices fell, with demand destruction reported by the International Energy Agency offered as one explanation; the agency said the hit to 2026 oil demand looks set to be significant². That sits against a forecast raise premised on supply risk lasting into 2027^3,4.

What to watch

The first test is whether the demand side gives way before the supply side does. If the agency’s demand-destruction reading is right, the forecast path built on prolonged conflict risk overstates the price^2,3. The forecasts themselves are dated, with a December 2026 marker and a later step down, so the shape of the curve is as testable as the level⁴.

The second is positioning. A twenty-week high in net long futures positions means the speculative community is already leaning the same way as the forecast, which raises the cost of being wrong⁶. The third is the seasonal overlay: heating demand arrives in the northern winter, which is when the fuel-cost pressure described by the BBC becomes hardest for households and governments to absorb^1,8.