Hormuz transits fall again as a tanker is struck and Washington reports record flows

A total of 17 commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, down from 37, according to a Reuters count carried by US News¹. The New York Post, reporting the same development, put the figure at only 12 vessels, down from 35². Both counts point the same way: visible shipping traffic through the strait fell sharply over the weekend, even as Saudi Arabia increased crude exports through an alternative route⁶.

The British military said an ‘unknown projectile’ struck a tanker as it entered the strait³. Two crew members were injured, with the injuries described as minor^3,4. Seatrade Maritime noted that this was another tanker attacked in the waterway⁵.

Two versions of the same waterway

US Central Command said it had changed the course of 109 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz⁷. Coverage of that statement put it as 109 commercial ships redirected amid rising tensions, alongside an Iranian claim to have downed a drone over the strait⁸. A US commander separately said Hormuz oil shipments had hit a six-month high¹³. Energy Secretary Chris Wright had put the working figure at about 10 million barrels a day of crude and products on 13 September¹³. Seatrade set the US claim of growing commercial transits directly against the latest attack⁵.

Tehran’s position is that the waterway stays shut. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the United States fulfils its conditions⁹. Quartz reported Iran setting conditions and awaiting a US response, adding that Iran remains bound by a fatwa issued by a former supreme leader on nuclear weapons, while quoting an official saying ‘We don’t know what will happen’¹⁰.

What to watch

Qatar has ruled out engineering around the problem. It said a gas pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz would make no economic sense, and launched a new investment platform to manage its sovereign wealth fund’s holdings¹¹. Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad Sherida said Qatar is ready to resume LNG operations within weeks of the strait reopening, and confirmed that it does not plan to build new pipelines to bypass it¹². For shippers and LNG buyers, that leaves the reopening itself as the variable to follow. OilPrice.com reported that visible traffic fell further over the same weekend even as Saudi crude flows rose⁶.