Iran Offers to Reopen Hormuz in Seven Days if the US Lifts Its Blockade

Iran’s conditions to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz were conveyed to the United States, according to Iran’s state media¹. Iran has offered to reopen the strait within a seven-day period if the US agrees to end its blockade and military pressure campaign². Tehran would act within seven days if the United States eases military pressure and lifts its blockade on Iranian ports³.

Kyodo reported that the new proposal was approved by Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader⁴. Tehran shut the strait in retaliation for American and Israeli strikes⁵.

Why it matters to investors

Traffic has collapsed. Commodity vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz fell to two on Monday from 10 a day earlier, according to preliminary shipping data⁶. A Thai bulk carrier was struck by a missile in the strait⁵.

Crude reacted to the diplomacy rather than to the traffic count. Brent fell as much as 2.9 percent before paring losses to trade near $100 a barrel, with Saudi pipeline restart plans and Hormuz diplomacy both in the frame⁸.

What to watch

Washington is also building an alternative. The United States has proposed a $10 billion fund with Arab allies to bypass Hormuz, of which Washington would commit $5 billion⁷. That is a structural hedge rather than a short-term fix, and it signals how long officials expect the disruption to last⁷.

The near-term markers are whether the United States accepts Tehran’s conditions^1,2, whether the seven-day clock actually starts³, and whether vessel counts recover from the floor set on Monday⁶. Until then, the offer alone is enough to move crude⁸. The approval reported at the level of the supreme leader is what distinguishes this proposal from earlier signalling⁴.

Two clocks are now running against each other. One is the seven-day reopening Tehran has put on the table, conditional on the blockade being lifted and military pressure eased^2,3. The other is the multi-year alternative Washington is financing with Arab partners to route oil around the strait entirely⁷. The first would restore flows quickly and take the risk premium out of crude; the second concedes that the chokepoint cannot be relied on and builds capacity to live without it^7,8. A single day’s shipping data showing traffic at two vessels is the measure of how much is currently at stake in that choice⁶. Tehran shut the waterway in response to American and Israeli strikes, so the sequencing of any de-escalation matters as much as its terms^1,5.