Middle East oil exports climb to their highest level since the war with Iran began

Gulf producers are pushing crude through and around the Strait of Hormuz at close to prewar volumes, easing the supply premium in the oil price.

Assembled by Claude from 7 sources at 7 outlets · Tuesday, September 29, 2026, Evening edition, 5:22 PM EDT · no human byline

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What happened

Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and along routes bypassing it reached nearly 80% of prewar levels last week, according to the research firm Kpler semafor.com. The Financial Times put the figure slightly higher, reporting that shuttle services through the strait have brought shipments to more than 80% of the prewar daily average, the highest level since the war with Iran began ft.com.

Flows through the strait were projected to reach about 9.7 million barrels a day as Saudi Arabia sent additional crude from its Gulf terminals, with LNG traffic also picking up euronews.com. CNN reported that Gulf oil producers, with considerable support from the US Navy, are moving crude through the strait despite Iran's position there, and that Iran has lost considerable leverage over the waterway cnn.com.

The picture is not uniform. The Associated Press reported that the strait remains closed and that Iraq has begun importing gasoline through a Syrian port to bypass it apnews.com, a description that sits awkwardly beside accounts of recovering transit volumes ft.com. Iran said on Tuesday it is awaiting a US response to its proposal for reopening the strait, as regional oil flows continued to recover iranintl.com.

Why it matters to investors

Crude prices were pressured as more oil moved through the strait, easing supply concerns barchart.com. The war premium in the oil price has been the main transmission channel from the conflict into global inflation, so a restoration of volume toward prewar levels semafor.com removes pressure from central banks as well as from refiners.

A dollar index rally to a two-month high added to the downward pressure on energy prices in the same session barchart.com.

The fragility is that the recovery depends on a shuttle arrangement and naval escort rather than on normal transit ft.com cnn.com. That is a higher-cost, higher-risk way to move the same barrels, and it can be interrupted.

The two published estimates of the recovery differ slightly, at nearly 80% of prewar levels on one measure semafor.com and more than 80% on another ft.com, so the direction is clearer than the precise level.

What to watch

Watch the US response to Iran's reopening proposal, which Tehran said it was still awaiting iranintl.com. A negotiated reopening would remove the shuttle premium; a rejection would leave flows dependent on the current arrangement.

Watch Saudi volumes from Gulf terminals, which are doing much of the work in lifting the total euronews.com, and watch whether workarounds such as Iraq's Syrian port route are expanded or wound down apnews.com.

Sources

semafor.com: Oil flows out of Middle East increase (2026-09-29)
iranintl.com: Iran says awaiting US response on Hormuz proposal (2026-09-29)
ft.com: Middle Eastern oil exports rise to highest level since Iran war began - Financial Times (2026-09-29)
apnews.com: Iraq begins importing gasoline via Syrian port to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz (2026-09-29)
euronews.com: Middle East oil exports rise as LNG traffic through Hormuz picks up - Euronews.com (2026-09-29)
barchart.com: Crude Prices Pressured as More Oil Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz - Barchart.com (2026-09-29)
cnn.com: Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz . It can't go on like this forever - CNN (2026-09-29)