Three oil tankers struck in the Strait of Hormuz as CENTCOM diverts 125 vessels

Three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were struck by unknown projectiles while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to shipping intelligence cited by Reuters and Marine Link^1,3. Two of the vessels were managed by ADNOC Logistics². The UK Maritime Trade Organization reported three attacks on shipping in the strait⁴.

The attacks came as traffic was recovering. Tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz are approaching prewar figures, and oil flows are near prewar levels^2,7. US Central Command said on Wednesday that its forces have redirected 125 commercial vessels to enforce the blockade of Iran, and that as of 30 September it had diverted that number to ensure strict compliance^6,10.

Why it matters to investors

Volume has returned but the price has not followed it down. CNBC reported that crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to prewar levels, while sharply higher prices at the pump continue to put pressure on the global economy⁵. Oil rose early on Thursday as investors parsed improved Middle East crude exports, with prices rising despite the easing of supply worries⁹.

That gap between physical flow and price is the risk premium, and the tanker attacks explain why it persists. A route can carry prewar volumes and still cost more to insure, crew and charter if vessels transiting it are being hit, which is the condition the UKMTO reports describe^1,4.

What to watch

Buyers are already restructuring how they lift crude. Indian oil refiners are hiring tankers to sail through the Strait of Hormuz to pick up crude from within the Persian Gulf, a change of tactics Bloomberg reported this week⁸. That shifts transit risk onto chartered vessels rather than the refiners’ usual arrangements, and it is the kind of adaptation that keeps barrels moving while raising the delivered cost.

Three markers follow. The first is whether attribution for the projectile attacks emerges, since all three strikes remain described as from unknown sources^1,2,3. The second is the vessel diversion count, which CENTCOM has been publishing as a measure of enforcement and which stood at 125 as of the end of September^6,10. The third is whether transits complete the recovery to prewar figures or stall, given EL PAIS reports the strait is still far from what it was before the war began⁷. CNBC posed the question the market is now pricing: crude flows are back at prewar levels, but at what cost⁵.