Crude exports through Hormuz return to pre-war levels and Brent slides

Exports of crude from the Strait of Hormuz have largely returned to levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran war, as oil producers and the shipping industry adapted⁴. Foreign Policy described a remarkable turnaround over the past week in supplies of crude making it out of the still-threatened strait². Indian refining companies are looking for tankers to hire to carry oil out of the Persian Gulf via Hormuz⁶. The volumes have come back without a formal reopening agreement in place¹. The search by Indian refiners for tankers was reported on the basis of a Bloomberg account⁶.

US Central Command said its forces have redirected 125 commercial vessels amid the blockade of Iranian ports¹⁰. A separate account put the same figure at 125 merchant ships redirected by the US Navy after the Iran blockade was reimposed¹¹. In the past seven days alone, the US military redirected ten merchant ships¹¹.

Why it matters to investors

Brent tumbled to $96 as Gulf oil flows bounced back³. Earlier in the week Brent had neared $98 amid supply concerns⁷. Commerzbank noted Brent falling below $97 while Treasuries recovered, with Fed and European Central Bank signals in focus⁹. Crude on the other benchmark traded near $90.5 as supply risks persisted⁸.

Even after the slide, Brent is up about 8% this month⁷. The second contract is up about 4.9% over the same period⁸. OilPrice also reported claims of Iranian attacks on tankers in the strait that were not picked up by any of the major corporate media³. Flows are recovering while the risk to shipping has not been retired^3,4.

What to watch

Iran said that reopening the Strait of Hormuz hinges on US guarantees to end the war¹. Tehran would then be prepared to reopen the strait and to begin negotiations on a final agreement within a seven-day framework, spokesman Khatibzadeh said¹. Iran’s condition is a guarantee from Washington that the war will end, not a commercial arrangement¹.

Tehran said on Wednesday that it had received a US response to its proposal to end the war and reopen the strait⁵. Differences remain over implementation⁵. The response arrived days after a public statement by the US president⁵. For importers, the question is whether volumes hold without the guarantees Tehran has demanded^1,4. Foreign Policy ties the recovery in flows to adaptation by producers and shippers rather than to any diplomatic breakthrough^2,4.