Saudi Arabia prepares an offensive to retake the Bab el-Mandeb strait

Saudi Arabia and Yemeni government forces are planning a major counteroffensive against the Houthis in the coming days, aimed at pushing them away from the Red Sea coastal areas that control the Bab el-Mandeb strait, Axios reported, citing two US officials¹. Haaretz reported that regional and Western officials described the planned operation as aimed at breaking the Houthis’ control of the strait³. Daily Sabah reported that the plan could involve the strait alone or a broader assault on several fronts, and that it could begin soon, citing regional and Western officials speaking to Reuters⁵.

The Oman Observer reported that the people with knowledge of the plans include Gulf and Yemeni officials and Western diplomats⁶. The Telegraph, the Siasat Daily, Daijiworld and TBS News all reported the preparations, with TBS News describing the operation as focused on retaking territory around the strait^2,4,7,8.

Why it matters to investors

The two sea routes out of the Gulf are now coupled. The Telegraph reported that Bab el-Mandeb has taken on outsized importance this year as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz². Daijiworld described it as the southern gateway to the Red Sea and a key route connecting the Mediterranean and Asia⁸. Axios called it a vital artery for global trade and for Saudi oil exports, and said control of it gives the Houthis and their Iranian backer a powerful new point of leverage over the United States, its Gulf allies and the world economy¹.

The second point is who fights. Axios reported that for the second time in recent weeks Washington rebuffed Saudi requests to join the operation and conduct airstrikes, while US officials said that could change if the operation runs into problems¹. Haaretz reported that the operation would be led by forces other than American ones, in an excerpt cut off before they are named³. A ground campaign run by Riyadh and Yemeni government forces carries a different risk profile, and a different timeline, than an air campaign with US participation^1,3.

What to watch

The shape of the operation is the first unknown. Daily Sabah’s sources described a choice between a narrow push around the strait and a wider offensive, and the two would mean different things for shipping insurance and for how long the route stays contested⁵.

The second is timing. Axios put the start within days, Daily Sabah said it could begin as soon as a date its excerpt does not carry, and the Oman Observer’s account rests on Gulf, Yemeni and Western sources without a date at all^1,5,6. The reports agree that preparations are under way and that the strait is the objective; they do not agree on scope or schedule^1,3,4,5,6.