Spending keeps rising while US consumer sentiment sits at 48.1

US consumer sentiment fell to 48.1 in September⁸. Economists surveyed for the week ahead expect an October reading of 48.0, against that 48.1 preliminary end-September figure⁵. Consumer confidence has not been this low in more than a decade, according to the experts cited in one survey round-up⁴. The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points in September, following earlier declines⁶, and University of Michigan survey work showed sentiment down 15 per cent this year⁹.

Spending has not followed the mood down. US consumer spending is rising despite frustrations with persistent inflation and gloomy views about the economy, with outlays up because prices are climbing and because Americans are buying more goods³. One account of the same data set describes the American consumer as crashing through inflation and driving growth⁷.

Why it matters to investors

The divergence has a composition story underneath it. Since May 2025, consumer sentiment has risen for people who own the most stocks while falling for those who own none⁷. That splits the aggregate reading into two populations with different balance sheets, and makes a single confidence number a poor guide to where spending comes from^7,8.

It also sets the political backdrop. President Trump’s economic data keeps getting stronger while his economic polling keeps getting worse, with the midterms less than a month away and prices the voters’ top issue². The administration’s own officials acknowledge that a strong economy alone will not persuade Americans they are better off, an attempt to avoid what they see as a Biden-era mistake of touting data while households feel price pain¹.

What to watch

The October sentiment print is the immediate test, with the consensus at 48.0⁵ and the September survey work pointing to energy prices as a channel into confidence⁸. A reading that undershoots would widen the gap between the surveys and the spending data^3,5.

The second test is the holiday season. Retail attention is on Amazon’s October Prime Day as the first read on holiday demand⁹, and discretionary categories are watching the same question: jewellery buyers describe a holiday test for diamond demand with sentiment still cautious⁶. If spending holds through those events while confidence stays near 48.1, the sentiment surveys will have told investors less than usual^3,8.