Washington says Gulf oil flows have recovered to most of their pre-conflict level

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz had recovered to 80% to 90% of pre-conflict levels, averaging 13 million barrels a day on a figure the excerpt cuts off mid-sentence³. A second outlet reported Wright as saying Gulf oil flows have recovered to as much as 90%⁴.

The same publication’s energy report is less reassuring. It headlined the recovery at 14 million barrels a day despite the Saudi attacks, while its own summary line said flows through Hormuz had recovered but only to 44% of pre-war levels, at around 11 million barrels a day². These are the administration’s own figures and the accounts of them do not agree, which leaves a range rather than a number.

Neither account disputes the direction, only the distance travelled: all of them describe a recovery from a wartime low rather than a return to normal^2,3,4.

Why it matters to investors

The New York Times reported that the world’s energy order is being tested again as the Iran war’s reach extends further, and that Wright and ministers from Italy and Japan addressed a conference by video link while many oil industry leaders did something the excerpt does not finish describing¹. Addressing an energy conference by video is itself a measure of the risk.

Aramco’s president and chief executive told the same event that attacks on the region’s energy infrastructure threaten global economies, with Wright taking part remotely⁵. The largest producer and the largest consuming government are making the same case in public, which narrows the space for treating the disruption as a local problem.

Two things are being said at once. The administration’s message is that the oil is moving again^3,4, and the industry’s message, delivered at the same conference, is that the infrastructure carrying it is under threat⁵. Investors are being asked to price both.

What to watch

First, the routes. Saudi Arabia plans to expand its oil export routes to cut its reliance on Hormuz, with the urgency growing as wars in the Middle East and Ukraine strain global supplies⁶. That is a capital-spending decision with a multi-year horizon, not a trading response.

Second, the buffers. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for average year-end oil prices over the weekend, warning of the high sensitivity of interest rates to oil prices⁷. That is the transmission line from the strait to every other asset. Third, which flow figure the administration settles on, because 90% and 44% describe very different markets^2,3.