Two Emirati cargo ships sink within a day as US forces dispute Tehran’s claim on the strait

Two Emirati cargo ships have sunk in the past 24 hours after being struck in the Strait of Hormuz, an escalation with little precedent, The Wall Street Journal reported¹. At least 10 vessels have been attacked in or near the strait since Sunday, the highest number since the war began between the United States and Iran, the New Zealand Herald reported².

US Central Command rejected the Iranian military’s claim that Tehran controls the strait, saying the Revolutionary Guard has no navy, Middle East Eye reported⁵. In a post on X late on Tuesday, Central Command said 19 million barrels of crude oil transited the strait on Monday, Gulf News reported⁷. Iran International carried the same figure, reporting that Central Command said the United States helped ship 19 million barrels through Hormuz that day⁶.

Why it matters to investors

Traffic is falling even as Washington insists the waterway is open. Transits through Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz have hit a new low amid a fresh wave of attacks, Anadolu Agency reported, with Middle Eastern crude oil, petroleum and liquid chemical exports affected⁴. The two claims can both hold: cargo is moving under escort while owners route fewer ships through at all^4,6.

Losses are also accumulating after the fact. TradeWinds reported that an elderly capesize bulker, abandoned following an Iranian attack in the strait last month, is now said to be sinking³. That is a reminder that each strike carries a tail of hull, cargo and insurance claims well beyond the day it happens^1,3.

For investors the exposure runs through freight and insurance rates for energy and chemical cargoes, and through the credibility of the escort operation that Central Command is citing^4,5,6.

What to watch

The first marker is the rate of attacks. The New Zealand Herald’s count of at least 10 vessels since Sunday is the measure to follow, because it captures escalation faster than individual sinkings do².

The second is the gap between the barrels Central Command reports moving and the transit counts showing a new low, since one is a daily volume and the other a measure of how many owners are willing to sail^4,6. The third is whose ships are being hit: two Emirati vessels in a day shifts the risk from flag-of-convenience tonnage to Gulf owners^1,3.