Goldman Sachs tells clients oil returns to $80 a barrel by 2027 as Brent settles near $110

Goldman Sachs told clients that oil prices may ease to $80 a barrel in 2027 as Middle East supply recovers². The bank expects Brent crude to come back to that level, according to its published view³. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research at the bank, set the forecast out in a report, which said the recovery in regional supply is the driver⁷.

The call lands in an expensive market. Brent hit $110 for the first time since May as Iranian attacks continued and Ukraine kept striking Russian energy infrastructure⁵. On Friday, Brent crude for December delivery settled up 3.7% at $109.86 a barrel, and December West Texas Intermediate gained 2.6%, with the Wall Street Journal attributing the move to Middle East and Russia-Ukraine concerns¹.

Why it matters to investors

The bank is telling clients that the current price is a supply disruption rather than a new level. That distinction drives allocation: a disruption argues for hedging the spike and underweighting long-dated energy equity, while a repricing argues for the opposite. Struyven himself said recent attacks underscored how disruptions to shipping could spread, which is the risk sitting against his own forecast⁵.

The forecast is not a single number. One account of the report says the firm now expects Brent crude to reach $90, without making the period explicit in the excerpt available here, so the shape of the path between today’s price and the 2027 figure remains unclear⁴.

Goldman’s equity side frames the same question through rates. A summary of the bank’s research carries remarks from Ben Snider, its chief US equity strategist, on what a continued rise in interest rates would mean for the gap between costs and returns⁶. For energy producers, a falling forward curve and a rising cost of capital compress the case for new supply at exactly the moment the market is short of it.

What to watch

Whether Middle East supply actually recovers on the timetable the forecast assumes, since the shipping disruption Struyven cites is the condition that would break it^5,7. Whether the front of the curve stays near $110 while the back end prices Goldman’s $80, which is the trade the forecast implies^1,2. And whether other banks follow with similar medium-term calls or hold their higher forecasts³.