Three national polls put Trump’s approval between 33% and 36% two weeks from the midterms

New national polls from the Washington Post, ABC News and Ipsos, from NBC News and from Fox News put President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 33%, 34% and 36% respectively, record or second-term lows in each survey, Axios reported¹. Democrats lead Republicans by eight points in the Post poll, nine points in the Fox poll and 10 points in the NBC poll among registered voters¹.

The coalition is lopsided. Some 95% of MAGA Republicans approve of Trump, against 47% of non-MAGA Republicans¹. Axios notes the tactical problem that creates: Republicans need the loyalists to turn out, but embracing an unpopular president risks alienating the independents they need in competitive races¹. The economy, once a strength, is now the president’s main vulnerability¹.

Where the map is moving

Democrats are running competitive races in traditionally Republican territory, putting at risk winning streaks that stretch back to the 1930s². In Kansas, where the streak dates to 1932, Senator Roger Marshall faces a challenge from the Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor who has significantly outraised the incumbent; the two are neck and neck and the Cook Political Report rates the race a tossup².

Axios also reports a surge of candidates downplaying or disowning party labels, among them three unorthodox Democrats leading Senate contests in red states: the Texas state representative James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, Hamilton in Kansas, and an Alaska Native candidate⁵. On the left, Pew Research Center found that 21% of Black Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents like leaders who identify as democratic socialists, against 11% who dislike them, with 65% neutral⁶.

What to watch

Politico reported Republicans complaining about a distracted president in the final stretch of the campaign, with one assessment that little of it was constructive³. Axios described Trump carrying his appetite for controversy into the closing weeks, quoting him telling reporters that it is going to all work out because it always does⁴.

For investors the relevant number is not the approval rating but the generic ballot spread, because control of Congress decides whether the tariff and tax settlement of the past two years is revisited¹. Watch whether the eight-to-10-point lead holds, and whether the races in Kansas, Texas and South Carolina stay close enough to shift expectations about the Senate^2,5.