China’s economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter as exports carried a weak home market

China’s National Bureau of Statistics said gross domestic product expanded 4.5 per cent in the third quarter, up from 4.3 per cent in the second⁶. Reuters reported the same acceleration to 4.5 per cent¹. The figure beat the 4.4 per cent growth expected in a forecast poll⁵, and was above a 4.41 per cent consensus of economists⁶.

Exports did the work. The BBC said exports helped offset weak spending at home, while trade tensions and doubts about AI cloud the outlook⁴. An economist quoted by the Guardian said the pickup “mainly reflects ongoing export strength on the global AI/tech boom, more than offsetting drags from the Iran conflict”¹¹. Channel NewsAsia described the quarter as an uneven recovery powered by exports⁵, and Al Jazeera said growth beat forecasts⁹.

Why it matters to investors

The composition is lopsided. The Wall Street Journal wrote that the export boom masks deep economic problems at home, with much of the domestic economy dragged down by gloomy consumer sentiment and a real-estate slump³. Nikkei Asia reported that fixed-asset investment fell 7.2 per cent, dragged down by a 20.6 per cent plunge in real estate development and a 4.2 per cent drop in infrastructure spending⁷.

Caixin reported that investment excluding real estate development fell 4.2 per cent, unchanged from the previous reading, and described the property slump as deepening⁸. An analyst quoted by Al Jazeera said real estate “is still shrinking”, and framed that as an outcome Beijing wanted⁹. For anyone holding commodity or industrial exposure, that split matters more than the headline rate: the part of Chinese demand that buys steel, cement and machinery is still contracting.

What to watch

Semafor said the figures put the world’s second-biggest economy on track for the government’s 4.5 to 5 per cent growth target for the year¹⁰. Reuters reported that full-year growth is seen at 4.5 per cent, at the lower end of that target². Al Jazeera noted that the ruling Communist Party sets the target itself⁹, so a print in line with it is a political outcome as much as an economic one.

Forecasters are not raising their numbers. ANZ’s chief China economist told Reuters the bank maintains its 2026 growth forecast at 4.6 per cent, “but risks remain tilted to the downside”, citing weak domestic demand and persistent deflationary pressure¹. The question for the next quarter is whether exports can keep carrying the load if trade tensions widen⁴, and whether Beijing adds stimulus it has so far withheld¹⁰.