US consumer sentiment holds near a record low at 48.0 as fuel prices and inflation fears weigh

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in at 48.0 in October, down from 48.1 in September^1,3,10. The final figure was revised up from a preliminary reading of 46.3, but it still ranks as the second-worst reading on record⁸. Sentiment now stands near the lowest level numerically recorded in the 74-year history of the monthly survey¹¹.

The index is 10% below its level at this time last year^2,7 and 15% below February, before the war began⁷. It marks a five-month low^6,10, and the final October figures were published on Friday, 23 October^6,9. The headline number was virtually unchanged from September, but the survey’s current conditions measure slumped⁵.

Why it matters to investors

The survey points to prices as the main source of gloom. Consumers are worried that persistent inflation will further weaken their buying power⁴, and rising prices linked to the Middle East conflict have soured the mood⁹. Inflation fears climbed in the final October data even as the headline reading was revised higher⁸. The mood has deteriorated since February, when the index stood 15% higher than it does now⁷.

Inflation and interest rates together dragged sentiment to its five-month low⁶. Frustration with the cost of living runs through the survey², and consumers across party lines are fed up with high gas prices⁷. That breadth suggests the pressure on household mood is not confined to one political group but tied to fuel and everyday costs^2,7.

The split between a steady headline index and a weaker read on current conditions is the detail to note for spending⁵. Households are judging their present situation more harshly than the overall index shows, at a time when inflation expectations are rising rather than falling^5,8.

What to watch

The reading lands ahead of the midterm elections, with sentiment near its lowest point since the index began^3,9. Concern about affordability has become a shared complaint across the electorate rather than a partisan one^4,7.

This was the final October reading, so the figure of 48.0 stands for the month^5,6. The next releases will show whether fuel prices and the inflation outlook ease, or whether the index moves closer to the record low it is already approaching^8,11. The direction of inflation expectations, which drove the October mood, is the measure to follow in the coming months^4,8.