Bessent says Gulf oil exports have passed pre-war levels as Brent trades near its 2022 peak

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said oil exports from the Persian Gulf had surpassed pre-conflict levels despite Iran’s efforts^7,9. Another account had him saying that exports from the Arabian Gulf had exceeded pre-war levels⁸.

Prices have moved the other way. Front-month Brent futures traded above $116 a barrel, near their 2022 peak⁴, and one report put the global price at $116, the highest since April⁵. Another put Brent at $117 as fresh US-Iran war fears threatened global supply⁶.

What the analysts say

Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research at Goldman Sachs³, said Brent had risen sharply to around $112 a barrel because of growing tensions in the Middle East¹. Goldman Sachs says refiners see a “high probability” of a sharp drop in oil supply, in an assessment tied to the Houthis³.

Goldman Sachs Research, led on commodities by Struyven and Sam Dart, also argues that commodities can protect portfolios against geopolitical risk².

Economist Robin Brooks, in an analysis titled “What’s Priced into Brent at $117?”, argued that a big risk premium has been priced in on the expectation of a return to a “hot” war⁴. One way to read the futures price is to split it into an expected price change and a risk premium; on that reading, the increase is largely due to the premium, perhaps an excessive one⁴.

Why it matters to investors

The gap between recovering flows and rising prices is the core of the story. More oil is leaving the Strait of Hormuz, mostly through ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, but those transfers tie up supertankers¹⁰. Record tanker rates are now crippling US crude flows to Asia¹⁰.

Importers are already feeling it. In Pakistan, Brent finished above $114 a barrel as the KSE-100 index fell 4,045 points, and the government revised its growth estimate for the fiscal year to 3.65% from 3.70%¹¹.

What to watch

Brooks’s reading ties the price to fear of renewed war rather than to lost barrels⁴, so military news remains the main input. Investors will also watch whether the Gulf export figures Bessent cited are borne out by shipping data⁷, and whether tanker rates keep diverting crude away from Asian buyers¹⁰.