Qatari mediators return to Tehran with new terms as Trump says the Iran war is ‘going to end soon’

A Qatari delegation is in Iran for talks as fears of renewed US strikes mount¹. The mediators returned to Tehran to push for a US-Iran peace deal, an official said^2,8, in a bid to revive a ceasefire deal with the US³. They carried new terms to Tehran⁴.

President Donald Trump said the war is “going to end soon”^4,5. Iran confirmed receiving a letter from Vance seeking renewed talks and said it has not yet responded¹¹. The vice president reportedly wrote to the head of Iran’s security body to restart truce talks, while Gulf states look to reopen the Strait of Hormuz¹⁰.

Why it matters to investors

The terms on the table remain far apart. On Tuesday, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reiterated a set of conditions for ending the war “set out by the country’s officials”¹. He is demanding the lifting of the US maritime blockade as a precondition for peace talks⁷.

Shipping risk is disputed. Trump asserted that routes through the Strait of Hormuz are safe and open, while Iran claims six commercial vessels have hit sea mines on the southern route⁵. Houthi forces also claimed six attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities³.

Washington is betting on one interlocutor. US intelligence believes Rezaei, a hard-liner, offers the best chance of reaching a deal^12,13. He sits on Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and is a former leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps¹³. Rezaei has the respect of former Guards colleagues and is regularly in touch with Khamenei², and US officials see that access as the reason he could help secure an agreement^4,11.

What to watch

Iran’s reply to the Vance letter is the next marker¹¹. Rezaei has issued his first public comments since meeting Khamenei⁶, and how far he moves from the supreme leader’s preconditions⁷ will show whether the Qatari track has room.

Distrust runs on both sides. “We’ve seen this movie before,” one administration official said of the talks⁹.

For oil and shipping markets, the gap between Trump’s statement that Hormuz is open and Iran’s mine claims⁵ is the immediate risk. Mediation continues even as fears of US strikes rise^1,7, so the outcome of the Qatari visit is the next test for energy markets.