Consumer sentiment sits near a record low on the eve of the midterms despite steady jobs and rising pay

US voters head into Tuesday’s midterm elections in a sour economic mood^1,2. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was near a record low ahead of the vote, despite low unemployment^6,7.

Two measures of consumer sentiment have shown a downward trend during President Donald Trump’s second term, though the Conference Board’s confidence measure has behaved differently¹.

The mismatch is the central feature of this election’s economy. Voters are going to the polls as beneficiaries of a stable job market and fatter salaries, but frustrated with the cost of living and with Trump’s handling of the economy⁴. The economy expanded by 3.8% in the July to September quarter, according to figures cited in coverage of the campaign⁸.

Why it matters to investors

Sentiment this weak, alongside solid growth and employment, indicates that prices rather than jobs are shaping how households judge the economy^4,6. Low unemployment has not been enough to lift the mood⁶.

Democrats have built their campaign around affordability⁵. Voters’ own accounts show why: one, Owen Smith, said it cost “like 80 bucks to fill up my tank”⁵. Another voice in the same report said of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that “it did help”⁵.

Tariffs are part of the same debate. Coverage of the campaign has linked economic frustration to Trump’s tariffs, alongside the strong headline growth figure⁸.

Monetary policy is in the background. Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh has described what he calls “monetary medicine” to bring inflation down without, in his words, the need “to throw sand in the gears of the economy”³. That approach is now being judged by voters who say prices are their main complaint^3,4.

Strategists are watching the same data. Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, commented on the gap between confidence and the hard numbers^2,7.

What to watch

Tuesday’s results will show how much the cost-of-living frustration translates into votes^1,4.

After the election, investors will watch the next sentiment readings to see whether the gap between mood and data narrows once the campaign ends^1,6.

They will also watch whether affordability, the theme Democrats ran on, becomes the frame for spending and tax fights in the new Congress⁵.