Goldman Sachs raises its Brent forecasts on Middle East supply risk, putting December at $105

Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent crude price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing Middle East supply risks^2,5. The bank now expects Brent at $105 a barrel by December^4,11, an increase of 17% on its previous call¹⁰. The analysts were led by Daan Struyven, the bank’s head of oil research¹.

In a 1 November note, the bank pointed to conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, together with broader risks, as reasons for the change⁶. Its analysts wrote that it is close to impossible to forecast when and where outages will occur².

Reports on the note differ on the 2027 figure. Some say the bank sees oil averaging $130 a barrel next year^1,7. Another says it lifted its 2027 average forecast to $88 a barrel, a 10% increase from its earlier projection⁹. The available excerpts do not reconcile the two numbers, and the bank’s 2027 base case is described only in part².

Why it matters to investors

The central argument is about the war premium in the price. Struyven said that for the risk premium to come off quickly, “you would probably need to see a diplomatic” breakthrough¹². A sustainable diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran would be needed to quickly remove it, he said⁴.

The note also acknowledges that supply from the Middle East is recovering, even as it lifts the forecast^1,7. That leaves the bank’s view balanced between returning barrels and the risk of fresh disruption².

The bank also sketched a downside case. There is a scenario where Brent could fall below $70 a barrel, Struyven said³. The spread between that case and the higher figures in coverage of the note shows how wide the range of outcomes remains^1,3.

The forecast arrived during a volatile stretch for crude, which fell to $111 a barrel on 2 November⁸.

What to watch

The bank’s own framing makes diplomacy the main variable^4,12. Struyven also addressed the chances of such a deal being reached¹¹.

Investors will be watching whether other banks follow with higher forecasts, and whether the gap between the $130 and $88 figures in reports of the 2027 call is clarified^7,9. Coverage has already asked whether the new call is as bullish as its headline number suggests¹⁰.