Investors doubt Anthropic can go public at a $1.5 trillion valuation after the AI selloff

Major investors are increasingly skeptical that Anthropic’s initial public offering can proceed at its expected valuation after a deep market selloff, according to people familiar with the matter¹. That expected valuation is $1.5 trillion^5,8.

Expectations have already come down. Investors estimated a fair valuation for Anthropic as high as $2 trillion in early October, people familiar with the matter have said². Investors now treat the $1.5 trillion figure as a ceiling rather than a starting point⁶.

Potential investors say the backlash against AI could also threaten the timing of the listing, and that Anthropic may need a bigger discount to secure commitments³. The developer of the Claude chatbot may be forced to delay the float after the Democrats’ midterm election gains⁴.

Why it matters to investors

The listing has been expected to be one of the biggest IPOs of the year, by the forecasts of many market watchers¹⁰, and has been described as record-breaking in scale⁹. One analysis warned that a delay in the offering could have negative effects⁹.

The pressure reflects the broader market. The blue wave in the midterm elections has hit Anthropic’s IPO⁷, and concern over the valuation came as a global rout of technology stocks deepened⁴. Market turmoil has put the offering at risk⁹.

No valuation has been cut so far. The amended S-1 filed on 2 November still leaves the price range and share count blank⁵. Anthropic recently updated its S-1 with additional disclosures¹⁰, and its blank October revenue figure is central to the debate over terms⁶.

Investors are pushing for better terms on the planned November offering⁶. Their skepticism centers on whether the company can achieve the expected valuation in the current market^1,8.

What to watch

The next amended filing is the clearest signal. A price range and share count would show whether the company has adjusted its expectations, since both remain blank for now⁵.

The revenue disclosure is a second focus, because the missing October figure sits at the center of investor questions⁶.

The third is timing. Potential investors have said the AI backlash could threaten when the deal happens³, and the company may be forced to delay⁴. Whether a discount is enough to secure commitments³, or whether investors hold the valuation at or below $1.5 trillion⁶, will determine how the offering proceeds².