Trump predicts an imminent deal with Russia covering Ukraine and “all of Europe” after Melania Trump hosts both sides

President Donald Trump predicted on Thursday an imminent deal with Russia covering Ukraine and “all of Europe”^3,4. He made the prediction after his wife, first lady Melania Trump, hosted Russian and Ukrainian officials⁴.

The White House said the first lady gathered leaders from Russia and Ukraine there, an occasion it said is believed to mark the first time in American history that a first lady personally brought representatives of two nations actively at war together to the White House for diplomacy¹. The White House described the meeting as following a “historic ceasefire”¹.

Ukraine honored Melania Trump for brokering a ceasefire at Oleshky⁷. She touted the rare agreement she brokered between Russia and Ukraine², called for peace at the meeting⁶, and handed over letters for Russian President Putin and the Ukrainian president⁶.

Why it matters to investors

Trump met Putin’s special envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, at the White House after appearing with Melania Trump and the Ukrainians⁵. A deal covering both Ukraine and Europe, as Trump described it³, would reach well beyond a local truce.

The scope of the talks is broad, by US account. US envoy Steve Witkoff said on Monday that the negotiations would address postwar security arrangements, measures to reduce hostilities and humanitarian matters, among other topics⁷.

The diplomacy also touches China. A summit in China with Trump and Putin could bolster Xi Jinping’s stature, but talks about Ukraine’s future and limits on nuclear weapons pose uncomfortable choices for Beijing⁸. Beijing is considering a trilateral meeting with Trump and Putin but is concerned about the consequences for its position⁹.

What to watch

The first test is whether Trump’s prediction of an imminent deal⁴ produces a text. So far the agreement that has been described is the ceasefire at Oleshky⁷, which the White House has called historic¹.

The second is the role of Dmitriev, Putin’s special envoy, whose meeting with Trump at the White House followed the first lady’s event⁵. His talks will show whether Moscow shares Trump’s view that a broad agreement is close^3,4.

The third is the possible three-way summit. Whether Beijing agrees to host it⁹, and how it handles talks on Ukraine and nuclear limits⁸, will show how far the diplomacy extends beyond Washington and Moscow³.