Vance leads a quiet push for a new Iran deal as Trump’s advisers split over strikes and sanctions

Vice President JD Vance has spent the past two weeks personally involved in indirect talks with Iran aimed at reaching a new ceasefire and resuming nuclear negotiations, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter^1,8. He is working through intermediaries⁶ and is in near-daily contact with Qatari and Pakistani mediators⁷.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner are also taking part in the diplomatic track^3,5. Vance and the mediators have held discussions, sources said⁴, and Vance sent a letter as part of the effort³.

US officials and regional sources say that, for now, President Donald Trump is willing to let diplomatic efforts play out and wants to see if any kind of deal is possible¹. “We’re talking to them,” Trump said¹. Trump also spoke with Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani⁹.

Why it matters to investors

Vance’s involvement elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest levels of the administration¹. It also shows him taking it upon himself to extract the US from a conflict he blamed for the Republican Party’s heavy losses in this week’s election¹.

Trump’s advisers are pressing him to make a decision on the war², and they are divided. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have advocated tighter sanctions and keeping the US blockade on Iranian trade¹⁰. CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Bessent favor continuing the current naval blockade and economic pressure¹², and want the strangulation track to run longer¹¹.

For energy markets, the split is between a negotiated ceasefire^1,8 and a longer squeeze on Iran’s trade^10,12. Qatar has kept the talks open while the advisers argue over strikes¹⁰.

What to watch

Investors will watch whether the indirect talks produce a ceasefire and a return to nuclear negotiations, the two aims sources describe^6,8. Trump has said the US is talking to Iran¹, but he has not chosen between the diplomatic track and continued pressure².

The roles of Witkoff and Kushner^4,5 and the mediation by Qatar and Pakistan⁷ are the channels to follow. So is the position of Rubio, Bessent and Ratcliffe, who argue for keeping the blockade in place^10,12. US officials and regional sources describe Trump’s patience with diplomacy as holding for now¹.