France signals support for Spain’s Hernández de Cos to succeed Lagarde as ECB president

France has indicated it may back Pablo Hernández de Cos to take over the presidency of the European Central Bank from Christine Lagarde next year^1,2. Informed sources say there are positive signals from Paris in favour of his candidacy^4,7.

Spain nominated Hernández de Cos, who is general manager of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel and a former governor of Spain’s central bank^3,5. The Netherlands nominated Klaas Knot, its former central banker^5,6. The two nominations set up a contest between candidates from Spain and the Netherlands for the most senior post in euro-area monetary policy^1,5.

France’s signal is reported as a preference for Hernández de Cos over his Dutch rival⁴. France has not formally announced its support; the reports describe signals of it^1,2. One commentary argued that inventiveness will be needed to settle on the next ECB chief⁶.

Why it matters to investors

The ECB’s Executive Board will see significant changes in its membership in 2027, and Lagarde will leave in February⁸. The choice of her successor will shape euro-area monetary policy through that transition^3,8.

The contest sets a sitting head of the Bank for International Settlements, who also ran Spain’s central bank, against a former Dutch central banker^3,6. France’s preference for the Spanish nominee is the first sign of how a large euro-area member leans^1,4.

Lagarde’s own next steps are also drawing attention. A poll found the departing ECB president would fare as well as centre-right candidate Edouard Philippe if she ran in France’s presidential election⁹.

What to watch

The race is now between two nominees, Hernández de Cos and Knot^5,6. Whether other governments follow France’s lead will decide whether the Spanish candidate becomes the front-runner^1,4.

The timing matters as well. With Lagarde leaving in February and further board changes due in 2027, the ECB faces a period of transition at the top⁸. Investors will watch for formal statements from Paris and other capitals, since the current signals rest on reports rather than announcements^2,4. Lagarde’s own plans add another element: a poll suggests she would be competitive with Philippe if she entered France’s presidential race⁹.