Nebius cuts its 2026 revenue outlook on data-centre delays and shares fall as much as 23%

Nebius Group pared back its 2026 revenue forecast because of capacity delays, and its shares slumped³.

The stock fell by as much as 23% after the outlook disappointed investors¹.

The company now expects 2026 revenue of $3.0 billion to $3.2 billion, down from its previous guidance⁸.

The cut came despite strong demand: revenue jumped 571% in the quarter, and the results topped estimates^7,13.

The problem was delivery: Nebius tied a delay at its New Jersey data-centre campus, where it has contracted capacity with Microsoft, to DataOne, the site’s third-party operator^17,20.

It expects to deliver more than half of the capacity contracted with Microsoft in New Jersey by year-end, with the remaining tranches moving to the second quarter of 2027^17,19.

Why it matters to investors

Spending is rising even as revenue slips, and Nebius raised its 2026 capital spending plan to $27 billion^16,19.

It said it will spend $40 billion to $45 billion in 2027, about 3.4 times its revenue^6,18.

The company plans to fund that expansion through customer prepayments and loans⁴.

It expects prepayments and financing against existing contracts with investment-grade customers to cover the build-out^1,2.

Nebius said its Microsoft and Meta agreements can be financed through an asset-backed framework, after a first $775 million facility¹⁸.

In October it secured a $3.5 billion financing facility with Citi, adding to billions raised through convertible debt¹⁰.

It signed $12 billion in deals in the third quarter, and those deals reportedly cover its capital spending¹².

Analysts are split: some see a large market opportunity for neoclouds, while others fret about customer concentration and high debt⁷.

Neoclouds including Nebius and CoreWeave are tied closely to Nvidia, which is heavily involved in financing both companies³.

What to watch

The selling spread to peers: Applied Digital sank 8% as the Nebius outlook and Nvidia’s chief executive exit hit AI data-centre stocks, while Cipher Digital, TeraWulf and Core Scientific fell less¹⁴.

The New Jersey timetable is the near-term test, with the remaining Microsoft tranches now scheduled for the second quarter of 2027¹⁷.

The financing model is the longer test, since the plan for $40 billion of 2027 spending rests on prepayments and contract-backed debt^4,20.

Accounts of the share move vary with timing: some put the drop at 16%, others at 22%, and the intraday low was down as much as 23%^1,5,17.